1. Journalism
A key component in writing this blog each week is weighing how far certain horses jumped up in my estimation versus which ones have the best chance to actually win the Kentucky Derby (G1). I held both Journalism and Sovereignty in high esteem entering last weekend, so perhaps others jumped higher than them, but these are my top two this week because they are the two most likely Kentucky Derby winners. Journalism swept past Kentucky Derby Future Book darling Barnes in the stretch of the $300,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) March 1 at Santa Anita Park and defeated him by 1 3/4 lengths under Umberto Rispoli.
The key here was the Curlin colt's finishing ability as he drilled the final three-eighths of a mile in :36.82, the final quarter-mile in :24.68, and the final eighth of a mile in :12.34. He was absolutely flying late and earned a career-best 108 Beyer Speed Figure, tied for the best by any 3-year-old this year at any distance. He also recorded a new career-top 110 Equibase Speed Figure for trainer Michael McCarthy while winning his third straight race, all by open lengths. It was a terrific race in his first start in 2 1/2 months since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December. My only concern is that maybe this was too fast, but the other side of that is maybe Journalism is just that good. If he improves at all between now and Kentucky Derby Day, Journalism will win the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
2. Sovereignty
I gave a shout out to BloodHorse's Byron King in last weekend takeaways for being high on Sovereignty all along—he's held down the top spot in every one of King's 2025 Derby Dozen blogs—because the bay colt really delivered in his first start after four months on the bench. Sovereignty rallied from last to first in the $401,650 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1) March 1 at Gulfstream Park, surging past River Thames in deep stretch to win by a neck under Junior Alvarado.
The victory earned the colt by leading sire Into Mischief a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure and essentially matched his best Equibase Speed Figure. He looked like distance would be no problem and finished that way with a final eighth of a mile in :12.61 for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The Fountain of Youth was an impressive race in Sovereignty's first start since winning the Street Sense Stakes (G3) Oct. 27 on the main track at Churchill Downs. He finished even better that day, closing out the win under the twin spires with a final furlong in :12.28 and a final quarter-mile in :24.12.
The scary part is the Godolphin homebred should be even better in his next race, and potentially much better given how long he had between starts. He should relish the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance, he has a win on the main track at Churchill Downs, and he's a maturing 3-year-old in Hall of Fame hands. He's not as fast as Journalism yet, but make no mistake he is a Kentucky Derby win contender. In fact, right now I would take Journalism and Sovereignty versus the field.
3. Flood Zone
I have a hard time envisioning Flood Zone winning the Kentucky Derby at this point, but there is no doubt he significantly boosted his stock with a 3 1/4-length victory March 1 in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack, a one-turn mile race. He entered the Gotham off a maiden win against Florida-breds in a sprint at Gulfstream Park and banked 50 Derby qualifying points by dispatching stakes winner and Gotham favorite Sand Devil at the eighth pole under Reylu Gutierrez.
Flood Zone improved his Equibase Speed Figure by 12 points to a 107 and his Beyer Speed Figure by 13 points to a 98. I would have liked to have seen him finish a bit faster in a one-turn mile—his final quarter-mile in :25.92 isn't blazing—but there is no disputing Flood Zone exceeded expectations in his stakes debut and rewarded his backers to the tune of $37.60 for a $2 win bet. The Frosted colt joined the barn of trainer Brad Cox before the Gotham and proved a welcome addition.
"Reylu knew more about the horse than I did," said Dustin Dugas, assistant to Cox. "He was a recent purchase, and Reylu had ridden him the first two times as well. He said he was full of horse today and really happy with him."
Flood Zone has room to improve with only three starts to date, and his tactical speed is an asset. I really liked that he was relaxed enough to go to the lead, allowed another horse to take control, and then rallied back in the stretch. That shows maturity beyond his experience, and Flood Zone also has some stamina sources in his pedigree that lead me to believe he could excel at longer distances.
