As is the case most every year, a full field of 20—perhaps oversubscribed—is likely for the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) May 3 at Churchill Downs. The first leg of the Triple Crown annually draws the largest field in North America.
The depth of that 1 1/4-mile classic will contrast the short fields seen on the American Road to the Kentucky Derby this month. Last week, six horses contested the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park and five raced in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park, though the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack had a mid-sized field with nine 3-year-olds going to post.
Qualifying points in the San Felipe for the Kentucky Derby—which Churchill Downs uses to promote their race and as a preference system when the Derby attracts more than 20 entrants—were reduced by 25% due to the San Felipe having only five starters.
Looking ahead to March 8, a field of seven is entered for the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Provided six or more ultimately race, Kentucky Derby qualifying points will be distributed on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis to its top five finishers.
Due to an abundance of lucrative options for 3-year-olds on the Derby trail, further expanded by the addition of the $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs March 15, it has become increasingly difficult for any Derby prep to draw a deep lineup. The challenge is amplified when one or multiple standout performers headline a field.
That is the case in the Tampa Bay Derby. Flanagan Racing's dual grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick returns to action in the 1 1/16-mile race, joined by his now-stablemate Hill Road, a Quality Road colt who was transferred by owner Amo Racing USA to trainer Chad Brown after a third-place finish in last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Both horses make their first starts as 3-year-olds Saturday and add blinkers.
The highly regarded Patch Adams, trained by Brad Cox for owners CHC and WinStar Farm, is also set to compete after a fourth-place finish in the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. Recall that before his slow-into-stride Southwest loss and after his Nov. 30 maiden win at Churchill Downs in which he smoked seven furlongs in 1:20.77, he was bet down to 12-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded in mid-January. He drifted to 37-1 odds in the Derby Future Wager pool that ended a month later.
With three such prospects in the Tampa Bay Derby, an opposing trainer needs to feel confident in his own 3-year-old's ability to take a crack at them when there is another race on the Derby trail after another a week or two.
The trainers of Owen Almighty, Brodeur, Filoso, and Naughty Rascal are willing to take that chance.
Sometimes, the allure of a race is its placement on the calendar or distance. From that standpoint, the Tampa Bay Derby is well positioned. Eight weeks out from the Derby, these runners can have four weeks to recover before competing in one of the final rounds of Derby preps in early April. The 1 1/16-mile distance of the Tampa Bay Derby provides an appealing balance of providing a two-turn experience, but not over such a long trip as to discourage a trainer of a comebacking runner to think his horse lacks the necessary foundation to go the distance.
Additionally, the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Tampa Bay Derby also suits some horses better than longer routes, irrespective of whether they are returning from layoffs or not. Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing's Owen Almighty falls in this camp.
The stakes-winning son of Speightstown pressed the pace in the Feb. 8 Sam F. Davis Stakes, also at 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs, poked his head in front of the Cox-trained John Hancock between calls in the stretch, but was outfinished late in losing by a half-length to that resurgent rival. Given more time between starts, John Hancock was not entered in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Speaking of Owen Almighty, trainer Brian Lynch said, "There's always a concern when a horse runs as hard as he did, but he may have had more race experience (than John Hancock) to absorb it a little better. He's given us every sort of vibe to say, 'Let's have another go.'"
Lynch intends to campaign Owen Almighty in races at seven furlongs or a mile after Saturday.
"He's probably got some distance limitations," he said, "and there are some very good (stakes) races for 3-year-olds over the summer at those distances."
Races such as the $600,000 Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs and the $500,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs on Belmont Stakes day at Saratoga Race Course showcase the money and prestige up for grabs for a 3-year-old at shorter distances.
Those stakes could also present Derby alternatives for other Tampa Bay Derby participants if the two-turn, 1 1/16-mile conditions of the Tampa Bay Derby are not to their liking.
The Tampa Bay Derby's 8-5 morning-line favorite, high-weighted Chancer McPatrick, must still prove his effectiveness in a two-turn route after finishing a nonthreatening sixth in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Nov. 1 at Del Mar. Before that loss, he won his first three races in New York, all at a mile or less around one turn, including the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1) and one-mile Champagne Stakes (G1).
He may not have fired in the Juvenile for reasons other than racing two turns. Perhaps it was the ship to the West Coast, fatigue from the end of a juvenile season, or exiting the race needing minor ankle surgery before starting his 3-year-old season.
Besides finishing like a horse that should be effective around two turns, late-running Chancer McPatrick is bred to route. His sire, McKinzie , who stands at Gainesway in Kentucky for $75,000, was a grade 1 winner up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt and ran second in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in 2019. His dam, the Bernardini mare Bernadreamy, scored her lone win at 1 1/8 miles, and Chancer McPatrick's half sister, Split Decision, captured her only victory at 1 1/16 miles.
