Luxor Cafe, a Kentucky-bred colt by American Pharoah , looks poised to win a guaranteed bid to the Kentucky Derby (G1) as the likely favorite in the Fukuryu Stakes March 29 at Nakayama Racecourse.
The race is the final leg of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby—a four-race series in which Luxor Cafe already tops the leaderboard with 30 points thanks to a victory in the Feb. 23 Hyacinth Stakes. The 1,800-meter (about 1 1/8-mile) Fukuryu awards 40 points to the winner with 20, 12, 8, and 4 to the next four placings. Since none of his rivals has any points, Luxor Cafe could be denied the championship only if he finishes worse than third.
He's done that only once in five starts—that a fourth-place finish in his first race Aug. 24, 2024, in a newcomers heat at Sapporo. He finished second a week later at the same track on the northern island but hasn't lost in three starts since moving south.
He got the maiden win Nov. 23 at Tokyo Racecourse at 1,600 meters (about one mile), then rolled to victories in the Kurochiku Sho at Nakayama going 1,800 meters and the listed Hyacinth at Tokyo, cutting back to a mile.
The opposition does include some promising types.
Imhotep, a New Year's Day colt, is 2-for-2 with both victories at Nakayama. Isana, Cosmo Conferma, Berber Compass, Levant Univers, Meisho Zuiun, and Slazak, all exit wins but all step up in class for the Fukuryu.
Rachel King, whose winning ride in this year's February Stakes (G1) was the first-ever by a female jockey in a top-level Japanese flat race, rode Luxor Cafe to victory in the Hyacinth. Former Brazilian and Hong Kong champion Joao "Magic Man" Moreira is named for the Fukuryu.
Luxor Cafe was bred in Kentucky by Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt and Westerberg Ireland and produced by the grade 2-winning More Than Ready mare Mary's Follies. Per Equibase, he has not been through a sales ring but now is owned by Koichi Nishikawa.
The colt is trained by Noriyuki Hori.
Japan Series Impact on the Kentucky Derby
The Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby has taken on increased significance as the Japanese racing establishment has put more emphasis on dirt racing.
T O Password won the 2024 Fukuryu and moved on to the Kentucky Derby where his good run to finish fifth in just his third career start was eclipsed by the dramatic win photo that found Forever Young in third.
The series has, however, been somewhat eclipsed by Japanese connections opting for the rich Middle Eastern races for 3-year-olds showing promise on the dirt.
Crown Pride finished sixth in the 2022 Hyacinth but earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby with a victory in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai. He finished 13th at Churchill Downs. Derma Sotogake won the second leg of the Japan series—the Zennippon Nisai Yushun—in 2022, finished third in the 2023 Saudi Derby (G3), and won the UAE Derby before finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby.
Forever Young also won the second race in the series but abandoned it to win both the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby before his dramatic finish at Churchill Downs.
Four 3-year-olds based in Japan are in the likely field for this year's UAE Derby.
