1. Tappan Street
Tappan Street handled his first class test in the Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, stretching out from a seven-furlong debut win to finish second to Burnham Square in the 1 1/16-mile graded event race in just his second start for trainer Brad Cox.
Rather than wheel him back in the March 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Cox gave him extra rest and targeted the Florida Derby (G1). The Holy Bull did not look like as strong of a performance when Burnham Square finished three lengths behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, but that result did not matter in the Florida Derby. Tappan Street showed his progression with a 1 1/4-length win over Sovereignty, completing the final three-eighths of a mile in :37.06 and final quarter-mile in :24.91 under Luis Saez.
In doing so, Tappan Street held off a 3-year-old in Sovereignty many regarded as a top five or better contender for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and earned a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure and 96 Equibase Speed Figure.
Tappan Street raced within four lengths of a solid pace in the Florida Derby and still finished very well. He has the pedigree to excel at longer distances—he's by leading sire Into Mischief out of the Distorted Humor mare Virginia Key, who placed in the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle Stakes (G2) in 2018 at Aqueduct Racetrack.
Only three starts is a little worrisome, and the speed figures came back a bit light, but the norms for Derby contenders are rapidly changing. Tappan Street is a 3-year-old on the rise with both tactical speed and stamina for a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer.
2. Publisher
It's hard to quantify how much of Publisher's runner-up finish in the March 29 Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park was due to improvement and natural progression and how much was because of the incredibly fast pace.
The bay colt by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah trailed the nine-horse field through a blistering first quarter-mile in :22.46 and was 16 1/2 lengths back after a half-mile as Cornucopian dueled with Southwest Stakes (G3) winner Speed King. That taxing early tempo set up the Arkansas Derby ideally for horses coming from off the pace, and Sandman and Publisher closed from eighth and ninth to finish first and second, respectively.
Publisher (like Tappan Street above) entered his final Kentucky Derby qualifying prep race with only 10 points, needing a top-two finish to secure a spot in the race, and he delivered the best start of his life. He earned a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure and equaled a career-top 100 Equibase Speed Figure ... not too shabby for a colt who has not won a race in seven starts.
My main reason to exercise caution when evaluating his Kentucky Derby chances is that he did not finish the race especially fast with a final eighth of a mile in :13.06 and his last quarter-mile in :26.09. For that reason, I do think the brisk pace softened things up for Publisher. That said, the trainee of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen earned a place in the Kentucky Derby and a week ago he was barely in the discussion. As a closer, he should be passing horses in the stretch at Churchill Downs, but I think the ceiling might be a top-four finish.
3. Sandman
In my view, Sandman is the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby from among my top three this week but I couldn't justify a higher placing simply because I was already pretty optimistic about his chances. That said, entering the Arkansas Derby I was beginning to worry just a bit that he might be more of a plodder capable of picking up minor awards but not winning marquee races.
Sandman, like Publisher, benefitted from a hot pace in the Arkansas Derby, but Sandman's résumé is more robust than the runner-up's record and he finished faster despite being closer to the early leaders.
With three wins, including the Arkansas Derby, plus top-three finishes in the Street Sense (G3), Southwest, and Rebel (G2) stakes in eight starts, Sandman has a terrific foundation to complement a stamina-laden pedigree. He showed some immaturity when ducking out in the stretch Saturday at Oaklawn, but that can be corrected, and jockey Jose Ortiz thinks he knows why it happened.
"He was a little shy from the whip from the left hand. I could see that from the replays the last time," Ortiz explained. "I tried one time and didn't try it again. So, he was rolling."
Right now, I have Sandman rated behind Journalism and Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty. He is in my second tier along with several others, including champion 2-year-old male Citizen Bull and fellow Santa Anita Derby (G1) contender Barnes. I believe Sandman has a legitimate chance to win the Kentucky Derby May 3.
