1. Rodriguez
This colt by Authentic from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert delivered a career-best effort to win the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) April 5 at Aqueduct Racetrack. Baffert shipped Rodriguez from Southern California, where he had come up short in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and San Felipe Stakes (G2), to New York for the Wood and removed his blinkers for the 1 1/8-mile race. Ridden by Hall of Famer Mike Smith, Rodriguez relaxed while setting the pace and finished powerfully with a final three-eighths of a mile in :36.90, a very good finishing time for dirt at that distance. The 111 Equibase Speed Figure and 101 Beyer Speed Figure both were career-best numbers and elevate him from the second or third tier of Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders into the mix as a win candidate. Rodriguez took a significant step forward in the Wood Memorial Stakes. He has some real estate to make up on Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Journalism, who defeated him by 11 1/4 lengths in the San Felipe, but this was a major improvement at an opportune time leading into the first jewel of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs.
2. Burnham Square
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Burnham Square needed a bounce-back effort after finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in order to solidify his spot in the Kentucky Derby field and he delivered in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) April 8 at Keeneland. The Liam's Map gelding closed from last to first to edge pacesetter East Avenue by a nose and earned a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Considering he was 9 1/2 lengths behind after a half-mile in :46.95, I wish he would have finished faster. His final quarter-mile in :25.82 and final eighth in :13.08 don't scream Kentucky Derby winner, but he did punch his ticket to Louisville, Ky., for the 1 1/4-mile classic and he should be passing horses in the stretch with a realistic chance for a top-three finish.
3. East Avenue
A Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue was one of the most highly regarded 2-year-olds of 2024 after posting back-to-back dominant wins to begin his career. His victory at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) made the Medaglia d'Oro colt the 9-5 favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but a disastrous start doomed his chances that day. More concerning was East Avenue's 2025 debut when he faded to 10th after stalking the pace in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), finishing 22 3/4 lengths behind winner Magnitude in unequivocally the worst start of his career. That led to some speculation that perhaps he had peaked already and concerns that he would not regain his best form. In the Blue Grass Stakes, East Avenue set a strong pace into deep stretch and battled gamely through the final sixteenth before coming up a nose short to closer Burnham Square. The runner-up finish reestablished East Avenue as a top 3-year-old and gave him enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, so it was a big race. He earned a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure and 96 Beyer Speed Figure that he could improve upon in his third start of the year May 3 at Churchill Downs. That's the positive. The negative is that he was unable to hold on to the lead late in a 1 1/8-mile race after setting a solid pace of :46.95 through the opening half-mile. His final three-eighths of a mile in :39.38 in the Blue Grass will not get the job done in the Kentucky Derby, but he's now in the race and trending in the right direction.
