A good mare is hard to find. Finding one that produces a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner is even harder.
How about if the mare produces two Derby winners? It's never been done before, and as of right now, the odds say it will be at least another year until it can happen. But betting that Puca will be that mare wouldn't be the worst decision.
The dam to 2023 Derby victor Mage and 2024 participant Dornoch would get another shot at immortality if her McKinzie colt Baeza finds his way into the field for the first leg of the Triple Crown May 3 at Churchill Downs.
"That's a dream of a lifetime," said Robert Clay of Grandview Equine. "That's more than special. It would be fun. It was fun to breed a Derby horse. It would be fun to breed one that you still had a piece of."
Baeza is a Grandview homebred co-owned with C R K Stable.
Grandview's connection to Puca runs deep. The daughter of 2008 Derby winner Big Brown, Puca was a $475,000 purchase by Grandview Equine at Fasig-Tipton's The November Sale in 2018. Two years later, she gave birth to Mage, who went on to win the Derby by a length. The following year, she produced Mage's full brother by Good Magic , Dornoch, who ran in last year's Derby. Both colts were bred by Grandview.
"These three colts are totally different types, and (Baeza), when you see him, he's turned into a magnificent specimen. ... This guy, he's really a classic, kind of godlike-looking colt, so he takes your breath away when you see him."
Clay has a great affinity for Puca.
"I think the thing that caught our attention when we bought her, she was lovely. I mean, she's a beautiful mare, but she was talented," Clay said. "She ran in the Breeders' Cup for Billy Mott. And so she caught our attention on her athletic ability. She's thrown three completely different-looking foals, but obviously they're all great athletes. ... There's a lot to like in her pedigree, but she could run."
Puca was sold to John Stewart at the 2023 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale for $2.9 million. Clay said he wouldn't mind buying a future daughter of the mare.
As for Baeza's chances of getting into the Derby and potentially allowing his dam to make history, he is going to need some help.
While the idea of the Kentucky Derby is to have the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds run in the biggest race of the year, injury and health issues aside, it might not be the case this year.
Currently 21st in the points standings, Baeza will need one more defection to get a spot in the starting gate.
Baeza has 37.5 points after finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but in previous years that runner-up finish would have been worth 50 points. That would have put the colt in the Derby field. But a change in how points are calculated resulted in Baeza not getting the full allotment of points, as the Santa Anita Derby only had a field of five.
Waiting to find out if Baeza will be included in the Derby has Clay anxious.
"If it's going to be as good as it can be—we all want the best horses in the country on the first Saturday of May to be running the race—and a point system that keeps that from happening is one that's probably got to continue to be tweaked," Clay said.
In the April 5 Santa Anita Derby, Baeza fell three-quarters of a length short of victory, trailing only Derby favorite Journalism. That short field included Citizen Bull, who is in the Derby field, thanks to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and 2024 American Pharoah Stakes (G1) in addition to his fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, and Barnes, long considered a colt expected to make a run for the roses.
Clay said it was the impression of he and the other connections of Baeza that there would be another horse in the field. Had they known it wasn't going to happen, Clay and his partners would have tried to get another runner into the race.
"I don't get frustrated, but there's disappointment that the rule was changed, and Baeza is pretty much the victim of the rule change," Clay said.
There wasn't consideration of another points race for the colt, who took three starts to break his maiden before the Santa Anita Derby. Clay said that as a May foal, Baeza was late in getting started in his training. But Clay is optimistic that if his horse gets into the Derby, he has as good of a chance to win as the other 19 participants.
"If he does get in the race, I think he'll be in the top five or six" Clay said. "The oddsmakers will look on him pretty favorably."
Should Baeza not make the Derby starting gate, Clay said the colt will be pointed toward the May 17 Preakness Stakes (G1). Baeza shipped out from California to Churchill Downs just in case. If he doesn't run the first Saturday in May, he'll be most of the way to Baltimore for the Preakness.
Clay allowed himself to dream for a moment and said that if Baeza does run in and win the Derby and comes out of it well, he said the Preakness would still be the plan in pursuit of a Triple Crown.
"If he's telling us he can run back in two weeks, then he goes; if he tells he's not ready, he doesn't," Clay said.
No matter how it plays out, Clay is enjoying the ride.
"From a breeder's point of view, it's a thrill lifetime to have a horse in the classics, and much less to win one," he said. "That was spectacular. If we could win one, or we could breed another one, and own a piece of it, double the fun."
