Though the song says, "The sun shines bright on my Old Kentucky Home," it doesn't always work out that way on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Mother Nature often can be found among the crowd of 150,000, bringing a dose of rain and a wet track to the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Though the current forecast calls for a mainly clear day on May 3, there is also rain predicted for several days during the week in advance of the Derby, creating the possibility of a lingering storm.
Given the limited experience most 3-year-olds have at this time of year, there are only a handful of races to base wet track form on. But some are compelling and worth noting.
In particular, the horse who may be helped most by a wet track is the Japanese entrant Luxor Cafe. He has started six times and has raced on a wet track four times, with three wins and a second by a neck. He's a son of American Pharoah who romped in the slop in both the Rebel Stakes (G2) and the Preakness Stakes (G1), so that's not a surprise.
After that, Coal Battle sports a perfect 2-for-2 wet track record. A son of Coal Front, he won the Jean Lafitte Stakes in the mud and captured his debut on a sloppy track.
Two other starters currently in the field of 20 have a wet-track win. D. Wayne Lukas-trained American Promise broke his maiden on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park, but, in a more telling result, was eighth in a maiden race on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs.
Neoequos, who drew into the field April 25, has one complete wet-track race on his past performances and he won it, taking a Florida-bred allowance race at Gulfstream Park on a sloppy surface. Neoequos also unseated his rider at the start of his career debut on a sloppy track.
Only two other horses in the current field of 3-year-olds have experience racing on a wet track.
The other Japanese entrant, Admire Daytona, was second on a good track and fourth on a muddy one, both in maiden races.
Publisher, the Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up, was second in a maiden race on a muddy track at Oaklawn and third on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, also in a maiden race.
For the rest, pedigrees can help steer you in the right direction. Curlin is an excellent wet-track sire, so give probable favorite Journalism and Grande, the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2) runner-up, consideration if showers pop up.
Beyond that, Into Mischief is the premier American sire whose offspring should handle an "off" track. That brings Sovereignty and Citizen Bull into the picture.
Last but not least, there's Sandman. The gray colt is by Tapit out of a Distorted Humor mare, which gives him good wet-track bloodlines.
