It was just last year that a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner met in the Belmont Stakes (G1), a matchup pitting Mystik Dan vs. Seize the Grey . But a battle between the two never materialized, with Derby winner Mystik Dan finishing eighth and Preakness victor Seize the Grey seventh.
In a little more than two weeks, another potential meeting of classic winners is on the horizon at Saratoga Race Course—host of the Belmont Stakes for the second straight year—with Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness winner Journalism poised to throw down, knock wood.
Something about the June 7 race feels different than the 2024 Belmont. Quite simply, it is a more compelling matchup featuring the two best 3-year-olds in the country.
There was no such consensus regarding Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey last year, either before the Belmont and certainly by year's end. Sierra Leone, who ran third as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes behind victorious Dornoch and runner-up Mindframe, would be honored as the champion 3-year-old male of 2024 after rallying to capture the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar.
The allure of this potential Belmont Stakes meeting between Sovereignty and Journalism—both horses must train well and be in good health to compete—is led by their performances and by opinions being mixed regarding which 3-year-old is at the head of the class. Is it Journalism, who has never lost a stakes race on a fast track, and who closed from near-certain defeat caused by traffic and stretch bumping to win the Preakness at Pimlico Race Course? Or is it Sovereignty, who skipped the Preakness after running down and defeating Journalism over a sloppy track in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs? Two weeks from Saturday, they can answer those questions with their performances on the track.
Controversy in the two earlier legs of the Triple Crown—first with jockey Junior Alvarado exceeding the maximum number of riding crop strikes in riding Sovereignty to victory in the Derby, and followed two weeks later by Journalism and jockey Umberto Rispoli bulling their way through tight quarters—has fueled continued discussion.
Reflecting the high regard racing media has for the pair, the two received all of the 30 first-place votes in the latest National Thoroughbred Racing Association Top 3-Year-Old Poll, with Journalism receiving 19 votes and Sovereignty 11.
The Belmont has the makings of an engrossing clash between these two, but it is not quite yet a rivalry. It's budding, but it isn't there yet.
The Belmont will represent just their second meeting, and for rivalries to resonate long term with fans, they need sustained, closely fought competition with repeated encounters. 1980s basketball between the L.A. Lakers and the Boston Celtics comes to mind, and decades later, Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer in professional tennis. Or in the horse racing space, Affirmed vs. Alydar or Sunday Silence vs. Easy Goer.
Affirmed and Alydar's meetings in the 1970s are regarded as the gold standard of Thoroughbred racing rivalries because they squared off 10 times—something that would be unheard of in today's era of limited race schedules. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer didn't battle as often—on four occasions, all in 1989—but they made their appearances count in all three legs of the Triple Crown, and ultimately in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Both Sunday Silence and Affirmed held advantages in their meetings over their rivals, with Sunday Silence ahead by a 3-1 basis, and Affirmed by a 7-3 margin.
This year's Triple Crown gives off some Sunday Silence/Easy Goer vibes based on the 2025 Derby being run over an off track, as the 1989 Kentucky Derby was, and with Journalism and Sovereignty representing different regions by coming from the West and East, respectively, just like Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.
But that's just vibes. It will be up to Journalism and Sovereignty to make lasting racing memories.
We've often seen other winners of the first two legs of the Triple Crown meet in the Belmont, only for the fireworks to fizzle. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford met in the 2011 Belmont, for example, respectively finishing sixth and fifth behind upsetter Ruler On Ice, and Orb and Oxbow raced together two years later, with Oxbow second and Orb third behind Palace Malice.
The Triple Crown series is challenging, and few horses can replicate their form over different racetracks and conditions over the three races. It's why the sport celebrates the 13 who swept the Triple Crown over five weeks.
Journalism likely will be the lone 3-year-old to race in all three legs this year, a schedule that could put even a stout horse like him at risk of regression. Sovereignty will have the benefit of five weeks' rest between races after his connections chose to have him sit out the Preakness following his closing victory in the Derby.
Baeza, the third-place finisher in the Derby, is also returning after five weeks after competing in the Derby and would appear to be the leading threat to disrupt a Sovereignty and Journalism meeting. He has faced Journalism twice and Sovereignty once, placing just behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) before showing behind them both in the Kentucky Derby.
Blocked from closing as quickly as Journalism and Sovereignty when in traffic late on the second turn in the Kentucky Derby, he kicked into gear once in the clear in the stretch, checking in 1 3/4 lengths behind Sovereignty and a neck behind Journalism.
The son of McKinzie , a half brother to Dornoch and 2023 Derby winner Mage , could close the gap on his rivals with slight improvement.
The Belmont, like the Derby, will again be run at 1 1/4 miles rather than 1 1/2 miles this year, owing to the track circumference at Saratoga, which is smaller than the main track at under-renovation Belmont Park.
Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) winner Rodriguez is the quickest of the half dozen horses mentioned as possible Belmont Stakes competitors. If he starts, his speed may allow him to control the pace, a style he has used with effectiveness.
His racing schedule this spring has been impacted by a lingering foot issue, however. He was scratched from the Kentucky Derby, and he further missed the Preakness, with trainer Bob Baffert saying he could not prepare him as he desired. The colt breezed May 23 at Santa Anita Park, covering seven furlongs in 1:24 4/5.
A short field is expected, with all eyes naturally on Sovereignty and Journalism.
