Which Belmont Runners Benefit from a Wet Track?

The Belmont Stakes (G1) is shaping up as a real humdinger with the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby (G1) entered for what is expected to be a thrilling showdown of truly elite 3-year-old racehorses.

The 1 1/4-mile race—shortened by a quarter of a mile due to the shift to Saratoga Race Course while Belmont Park undergoes a massive renovation—drew a field of eight led by the aforementioned trio: Derby winner Sovereignty, Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Journalism (the Derby runner-up), and Derby third-place finisher Baeza.

There are all sorts of variables to consider when betting a race, like how many speed horses are entered to push the early pace, speed figures, distance preferences, which runners are poised to improve, etc. Another variable that has been a constant theme this Triple Crown season is Mother Nature. Yes, rain is again in the forecast and a wet track often plays a significant role in the outcome of a race.

First, let's start with the basics: what is an "off" or wet track? In the simplest terms, an "off" track is a racing surface rated anything other than fast. We have previously used the quick explanation below of dirt track conditions you might see/hear on Belmont weekend:

• good (track): a dirt track that is almost fast
• wet fast (track): a track that has moisture on the surface that has not had time to impact the base of the surface
• muddy (track): condition of a racetrack that is wet but has no standing water
• sloppy (track): a racing surface that is saturated with water and has standing water visible
• sealed (track): a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed

The best predictor for which runners will handle an off track is past success. A racehorse who has won or run fast on a wet track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly. The table below lists how this year's Belmont Stakes contenders have performed on an off track with their career record, top Beyer Speed Figure on a wet track, and best Equibase Speed Figure on a wet track. The best Beyer and Equibase Speed Figures from among the Belmont Stakes entrants are bolded as are the entrants with a win on a wet track.

The Kentucky Derby is still fresh in the memory of racing fans. The first jewel of the Triple Crown was held on a sloppy (sealed) main track at Churchill Downs and provides a good indication for how the big three might handle a wet track. Sovereignty seemed to relish the surface in his 1 1/4-length victory while Journalism and Baeza both also ran well in the race.

Journalism's trainer, Michael McCarthy, said he wishes Journalism got off to a better start in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps what McCarthy deemed a somewhat disappointing first eighth of a mile or quarter-mile in the Derby could have been partially attributed to Journalism's first start on a wet track and finding his footing, but the race also had a 19-horse field and was held in front of 147,000-plus people.

I thought after the race that Baeza ran as well as he did in spite of the wet track, but I don't have any first-hand information to corroborate that. Regardless, he ran a monster race in his fifth career start and if he didn't love the surface it was even better.

The only other runner in the field with experience on an off track is Uncaged. He's 2-for-2 on a wet track, including earning the highest Beyer Speed Figure of his career in his debut on a muddy main track at Saratoga. Success on a wet track is good, success on a wet track where Uncaged is running Saturday is even better.

If the track is wet on Belmont Stakes day, Sovereignty and Uncaged should get a nice boost. Likewise, Journalism and Baeza turned in very strong performances in the Kentucky Derby under adverse conditions.

Another useful tool for predicting whether or not horses will thrive on an off track is the Tomlinson rating, especially for the four Belmont Stakes entrants with no experience on a wet track. Daily Racing Form uses Tomlinson ratings to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance of the horse's sire and broodmare sire's progeny on wet tracks. For the Belmont Stakes field, the table below lists the contenders from high (best for a wet track) to low:

The Tomlinson ratings definitely support what we saw with our own eyes from Sovereignty and Journalism in the Kentucky Derby. Sir Barton Stakes winner Crudo also has a high Tomlinson rating and could be more dangerous on a wet track should he be able to dictate the pace. Uncaged's two victories on an off track are supported by a quality Tomlinson rating and deep closer Hill Road also might move up in his first try on a wet track.

Neither Heart of Honor nor probable pacesetter Rodriguez has experience on a wet track and their Tomlinson ratings, while not the only thing to consider, lag behind some of their peers in the Belmont Stakes. You could make a case that their chances to win the final jewel of the Triple Crown would be better on a dry/fast surface at Saratoga.