It's the showdown everyone was hoping for June 7 in the $2 million Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course: Sovereignty vs. Journalism.
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sovereignty, who skipped the Preakness Stakes (G1), will again face Derby runner-up Journalism, who was a dynamic winner of the Preakness. These two rivals head a field of eight with a wide divide of talent. Realistically, five of the starters could pull off a victory at Saratoga, while the other three appear to be overmatched.
1. Hill Road (10-1): Debuted in the United States with a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at 61-1 odds. Moved over to Chad Brown's barn and then finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) before he staged a strong rally to win the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). Should like the distance, but the potential for a slow pace may work against him.
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.; TRAINER: Chad Brown
2. Sovereignty (2-1): Rallied from 16th to win the Kentucky Derby with a strong move and has yet to run a bad race since his debut. The distance should not pose a problem and he has had five weeks to prepare for the final leg of the Triple Crown. Seems on edge for a big effort in his rematch with Journalism.
JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado; TRAINER: Bill Mott
3. Rodriguez (6-1): The Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) winner is one of two starters with early speed. Was plagued by a foot injury that kept him out of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but that has healed, according to two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert. If the pace is reasonable, he will be hard to catch.
JOCKEY: Mike Smith; TRAINER: Bob Baffert
4. Uncaged (30-1): One of the big longshots for a good reason. In his only stakes appearance he was a weak sixth in the Peter Pan. Hard to see him being competitive against the top 3-year-olds.
JOCKEY: Luis Saez; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
5. Crudo (15-1): Another longshot facing a tall task here. He won easily in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico Race Course but after winning that race in a slow time he'll make his grade 1 debut. His speed could be problematic for Rodriguez but it's unlikely that he will be a factor in the final furlong.
JOCKEY: John Velazquez; TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
6. Baeza (4-1): Cannot be ignored here. Was closing fastest of all late in the Kentucky Derby when he wound up third, just a neck behind Journalism. Before that, he finished second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Could be closer to the pace Saturday and that may be the key to a great trip.
JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; TRAINER: John Shirreffs
7. Journalism (8-5): His win in the Preakness was nothing short of spectacular. He had to bull his way between rivals at the top of the stretch and miraculously made up five lengths on Gosger in the final furlong to win going away. This will be his third race in five weeks but the talent he put on display at Pimlico indicates he can be a very special 3-year-old.
JOCKEY: Umberto Rispoli; TRAINER: Michael McCarthy
8. Heart of Honor (30-1): Made his U.S. debut in the Preakness and was a distant fifth. Hard to picture him moving forward enough to be a big threat.
JOCKEY: Saffie Osborne; TRAINER: Jamie Osborne
THE PICK: Journalism
LIVE LONGSHOT: Rodriguez
SUPERFECTA: 7-6-3-2
