The $2 million Belmont Stakes (G1) landed the matchup it coveted with Sovereignty and Journalism squaring off.
But will the showdown between Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winners be contested on a level playing field?
In an era when spacing between races has become a critical factor in plotting schedules for Thoroughbreds, the 1 1/4-mile Belmont features its two stars coming into the last jewel of the Triple Crown with different amounts of rest, creating a scenario unseen in decades.
In a twist on the typical scenario, it is Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, who has more rest. He last raced for trainer Bill Mott May 3 while winning the Run for the Roses by 1 1/2 lengths over Journalism, giving Godolphin's homebred son of Into Mischief five weeks to freshen up for the June 7 "Test of the Champion" at Saratoga Race Course.
In contrast, Journalism exited a runner-up finish for trainer Michael McCarthy in the Kentucky Derby, and the son of Curlin ran two weeks later in the Preakness. He turned in a stupendous effort at Pimlico Race Course to win the Preakness, powering through rivals at the top of the stretch and making up five lengths on Gosger in the final furlong to prevail by a half-length. Now he is facing a third race in five weeks with just three weeks of rest.
Is that an advantage for Sovereignty?
History is no help. The last time the Kentucky Derby winner skipped the Preakness and then faced the Preakness winner in the Belmont was 43 years ago in 1982. That was when Gato Del Sol won the opening leg and waited for the Belmont. He faced Preakness winner Aloma's Ruler there, but those circumstances were different than Saturday's in that Aloma's Ruler did not race in the Kentucky Derby, unlike Journalism.
In the end, the amount of rest for both horses did not matter as, reflective of the era, Conquistador Cielo romped in the 1982 Belmont after setting a track record in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) just five days earlier. Conquistador Cielo gave legendary trainer Woody Stephens the first of his five straight Belmont wins.
Current-day trainers provided more insight.
New York's top trainers, Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, both say the timing gives Godolphin's Sovereignty, the 2-1 morning-line second choice, an advantage over 8-5 morning-line favorite Journalism.
"If you ask me objectively, I would say Sovereignty has an edge," said Brown, who will send out 10-1 shot Hill Road in Saturday's third jewel of the Triple Crown. "I'd always try to get five weeks' rest as opposed to three. I'm surprised they didn't make Sovereignty the favorite. He beat Journalism already in their only matchup and beat him fair and square, even though Journalism had the jump on him and it was hard to pass horses on that wet, firm track."
Pletcher, a four-time winner of the Belmont, each time with five weeks' rest, also felt the extra time gives Sovereignty a boost.
"Sovereignty has an edge, though I don't know how big of an edge," said Pletcher, who will start longshots Crudo (15-1) and Uncaged (30-1) in search of a fifth Belmont win. "Journalism appears to be an exceptional horse. He takes his races really well and bounces back in a couple of weeks. He seems to be bouncing back really well here. But Sovereignty shipped here four or five days after the Derby and settled in. He's had three works here and is coming in the fresher horse. Will that translate into a win? I am not sure, but it is probably an advantage."
Mott did not view the situation as an advantage, looking at it as each trainer doing what is best for his horse.
"Every situation is different. I like it for our horse, and Michael likes it for his horse, so I respect what he thinks about his animal. We all like to do it differently," the Hall of Famer said. "Journalism is a horse that can really run, but I was confident Sovereignty was doing well before the Derby, and I feel the same way now. There are some good horses in there, but our horse is doing well, and that's the big thing."
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McCarthy believes what matters more than the rest is the way Journalism has trained as he approaches Saturday's race for the ownership group of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Bob LaPenta, breeder Don Alberto Stable, Elayne Stables Five, and the Coolmore partnership.
"Anytime you can bring a fresh horse into a big race like this, it is certainly a little bit of an advantage. They're doing what they thought was best for Sovereignty, and we're doing what we think is best for Journalism," McCarthy said. "I don't think he's lost a step over the last five weeks. He has no fitness questions or anything like that. His energy is good, and his attitude is great. Since July he's been a horse that shows us great energy and a willingness to train. Everything about him has been straightforward. He's certainly a bit of an outlier."
The numbers for a Preakness winner capturing the Belmont are not encouraging. Since 1995, only four 3-year-olds have won both races, and they were all horses who were dominant at the time. Two were Triple Crown winners trained by Bob Baffert (American Pharaoh in 2015 and Justify in 2018), plus Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001 (who was also trained by Baffert). This group won by a combined 26 1/2 lengths in the Belmont. Fresher rivals did not faze them.
And that might be the key to the 157th Belmont. There may be obstacles in Journalism's path, but they have been conquered before by champions. After his incredible effort in the Preakness, perhaps Journalism is that next special, champion-in-the-making who can overcome what so many other 3-year-olds of the past could not.
"Journalism looked fantastic at Pimlico. Some horses can handle it (the two-week spacing), some can't. I think Journalism is not too heavy, light-moving. He can handle it. I've been watching him all winter, and he floats over the track. He's a freaky kind of horse. He has tactical speed, and what he did last time was pretty impressive, just bulling his way through there," Baffert said. "Horses can run in all three races and put in a big effort in the Belmont. You just need a really good horse to do it."
Baffert's Belmont starter, Rodriguez (6-1), should play a central role in determining the outcome. Winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), the son of Authentic suffered a foot issue that knocked him out of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but Baffert says that is behind him, meaning the early speed in the Belmont should rest with Rodriguez and longshot Crudo.
Depending on the fractions they carve out, it could either set up matters nicely for the rest of the eight-horse field or force the top contenders to move earlier than planned.
"He's won on the lead. We tried rating him, and he didn't want any part of that. He wasn't happy being behind horses. Unfortunately, he's kind of a one-dimensional horse. When you have a horse like that you are at the mercy of the pace," Baffert said about the colt owned by a large partnership headed by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stable. "He is as good as I can get him. I'd say he's ready for the Preakness right now. I don't know how he'll handle a mile and a quarter, but he's doing well."
The Belmont brings back the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, the trio of Sovereignty, Journalism, and carrot smoothie-loving Baeza, who were 16th, 10th, and 14th, respectively, after the opening quarter-mile in a hot-paced, 19-horse Run for the Roses.
READ: For Baeza, Home Is Where The Carrot Smoothie Is
While Sovereignty has been a closer throughout his career, both Journalism and Baeza showed an ability to be within a couple of lengths of the lead earlier in their careers in California.
Journalism was within five lengths of the lead after a half-mile in the Preakness, and Baeza was third at that point, a length behind, when he finished as the runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
"In short fields in California, he was close to the lead," said Flavien Prat, who will ride Baeza, a son of McKinzie out of the brilliant mare Puca owned by C R K Stable and breeder Grandview Equine. "I think he can show some early speed Saturday."
Amo Racing USA's Hill Road will also be at the back of the pack. The Chad Brown-trained son of Quality Road rallied from eighth to win the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan Stakes (G3) in his last start at Aqueduct Racetrack.
The speedy Crudo will be making his graded stakes debut. The son of Justify , owned by celebrity chef Bobby Flay and James Ventura, won the restricted Sir Barton Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths in front-running style last time out.
Two 30-1 shots round out the field. Breeder WinStar Farm and Repole Stable's Uncaged was sixth in the Peter Pan, while Jim and Claire Limited's Heart of Honor was slow-starting fifth in the Preakness in his United States debut.
In the end, the Belmont field is filled with the best 3-year-olds and a matchup that can spark both debate and rampant fan interest.
"I think this is great for racing," McCarthy said. "We were second best in the Derby, and there are no hard feelings or animosity. It's a great field, heavy on talent but there are three or four of them who could win the Breeders' Cup Classic, and it wouldn't surprise me."
Saratoga Race Course, Saturday, June 7, 2025, Race 13Entries: Belmont S. Presented by NYRA Bets (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Hill Road (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 126 Chad C. Brown 10/1 2 2Sovereignty (KY) Junior Alvarado 126 William I. Mott 2/1 3 3Rodriguez (KY) Mike E. Smith 126 Bob Baffert 6/1 4 4Uncaged (KY) Luis Saez 126 Todd A. Pletcher 30/1 5 5Crudo (KY) John R. Velazquez 126 Todd A. Pletcher 15/1 6 6Baeza (KY) Flavien Prat 126 John A. Shirreffs 4/1 7 7Journalism (KY) Umberto Rispoli 126 Michael W. McCarthy 8/5 8 8Heart of Honor (GB) Saffie Osborne 126 Jamie Osborne 30/1
