The relentless cascade of seven-figure prices emanating from a sale like the Fasig-Tipton orgy of yearlings earlier this week can be daunting to us mere mortals. On the plus side, gas prices in California are holding steady.
Project what you will from an auction during which 25 Thoroughbreds less than a year from being weaned fetched a million dollars or more. Is this a sign that the little ol' racing industry is strong, despite a U.S. economy dealing with the unpredictable impact of higher import tariffs and ongoing international strife? Is the game, resting on the shoulders of horseplayers and billionaires, immune to the shifting winds of current events taking place beyond the sales pavilions of Keeneland, Ocala, and Saratoga Springs?
Of course it is. The protective bubble covering the highest echelons of the sport seems to be holding firm. It takes hard work, to be sure, and everyone has to be on the same page. But if a narrow set of indicators is on the positive side, the racing business usually follows on cue.
"Rightly or wrongly, there's a lot of optimism in the game right now, or people wouldn't pay those prices," said Arthur Hancock III, who was on stage at the same Fasig-Tipton pavilion Aug. 1 during the Hall of Fame ceremony for his induction as a Pillar of Racing.
"I was watching the sale from back home here in Kentucky," Hancock said. "The prices were unbelievable. I said to my wife, Staci, that it was like the Twilight Zone."
Hancock's imprint was on his Stone Farm consignment of two colts from breeder Bobby Flay, with daughter Lynn Hancock at the helm. One brought $2.7 million to top the first night, while the other fetched $725,000.
"And to think I tried to sell Sunday Silence for $17,000 at Keeneland, then tried to get $50,000 for him as a 2-year-old and bought him back for $32,000," Hancock said.
The $725,000 colt from Flay and Stone Farm was a son of Quality Road purchased by Aron Wellman for his Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners in league with Bridlewood Farm and Robert LaPenta. Wellman also went to $700,000 for Eclipse to land a son of Justify out of a half sister to female turf champion and Hall of Famer Tepin.
"I think both were well bought in this ferocious market," Wellman said. "Certainly, there were a lot of prospects we fancied that never gave us a chance to raise our hands. It was rapid fire. Before you knew it, he or she was well into the seven figures and beyond.
"The Quality Road colt had the unfortunate distinction of being neighbors with hip 37, the Gun Runner colt of Bobby Flay's that topped the first night. I think a lot of buyers were attracted by the shiny object in the window, while I went with the brown paper bag, who was a very nice individual in himself. If he'd had sold on a different night, or wasn't the red-headed stepchild of that two-horse consignment, perhaps he would have brought a little more. We certainly weren't stealing something for $725,000, but we were coming in a little bit under the radar."
Bargains are in the eye of the beholder, although they clearly would be tough to find at a sale like Saratoga.
"It's hard to say that when the market zigs, we zag, which is what we like to do," Wellman said. "That was kind of our approach with the Justify colt. Saratoga Select is not a sale that people looking for stallion-profile colts go to looking for what they perceive as turf horses. On pedigree, this horse would certainly strike you as turf-oriented, but physically, he didn't represent himself as a turf horse in conformation or action.
"If he had been perceived more as a dirt horse, I think he would have commanded seven figures plus," Wellman noted. "We didn't fuss too much whether it was turf or dirt, as long as he's good at something."
Wellman bought Journalism at Saratoga two years ago for $825,000, and with partners has reaped the benefits of the colt's outstanding 3-year-old campaign that has included three grade 1 victories, including the Preakness Stakes (G1). On the second evening, Journalism's half sister by Into Mischief entered the ring and then was returned to her breeder, Don Alberto, when a bid of $3.9 million failed to make her reserve.
"Obviously, there was some emotional attachment to that situation," Wellman said. "She actually looked a lot more Uncle Mo on the damside than Journalism. I thought that they had similar head carriage. Other than that, I didn't appreciate many physical similarities. She was very classy, very smart, and had a lot of presence. But at the end of the day, it's unfair to compare the two.
"Everybody knew the Don Alberto folks were going to protect her, and protect her significantly," Wellman noted. "I don't think they're upset about keeping her."
The sale also marked the debut of Flightline 's first yearling crop, which attracted a ripple of excitement each time one of them entered the ring. Wellman, for his part, sat on his hands.
"It wasn't because we didn't like them," Wellman said. "Remember, I'm the schmuck that passed on Flightline at this sale as a yearling, when I probably would have been the most likely buyer, seeing as we raced his dam, Feathered, and we'd had a classic winner by his sire, Tapit.
"It's not as though we close our mind to freshman sires at a sale like the Saratoga select," he added. "But to me, it's more a sale you want to focus on proven sires, the blue-chippers you know you can rely on. You know you're paying a premium no matter what. Then you get the freshman sire effect, which also comes with a premium, so you end up paying a premium-plus.
"At the end of the day, as a wise man once told me, this is a game of ego," Wellman said. "All anyone wants to be able to say, when all is said and done, is, 'I told you so.' That's front and center when it comes to freshman sires."
