Speed figures play an essential role in helping horsemen find the right races for their runners.
Yet races are not always won on paper.
Class can be the great equalizer in horse racing as fast horses at one level have be known to struggle against a better caliber of rivals and fall short of their outstanding times in past races.
That age-old battle between speed and class will be in the spotlight Aug. 23 when Magnitude makes his grade 1 debut and faces the nation's top 3-year-old, Sovereignty, in the $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course.
In this instance, it involves whether the glittering speed figures Winchell Thoroughbreds' Magnitude has registered against lesser company will hold up against top-level rivals in the longest race of his career.
"We know what we are up against," said David Fiske, owner Ron Winchell's racing manager. "We've always thought he was a horse with a lot of talent, which he exhibited in the Risen Star (Stakes) in February and then backed up in the Iowa Derby. It just seemed like the speed figures and sheet numbers he was running put him in the mix with the top horses in the division."
Magnitude, a son of Not This Time trained by all-time wins leader Steve Asmussen, is viewed as the main threat to Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Sovereignty among a field of just five 3-year-olds in Saturday's mile-and-a-quarter Midsummer Derby. While Godolphin's Sovereignty is the heavy 2-5 favorite, Magnitude is pegged as the 2-1 second choice, even though his last two starts—and lopsided wins by a combined 19 lengths—came 4 1/2 months apart in the Feb. 15 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots and then the ungraded July 5 Iowa Derby.
Those wins are surely a cut below facing a dual classic winner in the centerpiece of the Saratoga meet, but the speed figures Magnitude earned in those stakes paint him as a serious threat to scramble the race for the 3-year-old male title by beating the division leader.
As a 2-year-old. Magnitude had two victories in five starts for Asmussen and was winless in two stakes tries.
He started his 3-year-old season with a sixth in the Jan. 18 Lecomte Stakes (G3) and was completely overlooked in the Risen Star when he was sent off at 43-1 odds.
"It took him some time to figure things out. He trained like a good horse at 2, but maybe the races were too short or he got behind horses. There was something that hurt him in each race, but Steve kept saying he has immense talent and hopefully we can get it out of him," Fiske said. "Prior to the Risen Star he looked average, he hadn't done anything to differentiate himself from the rest of the pack. He hadn't shown anything that made you believe he could win the Risen Star. There were other horses much more highly regarded. We saw videos before the Risen Star that made me think there was a pretty good chance he would run well. He was jerking the exercise riders out of the saddle. He was touting himself in the morning but a win seemed like a lot to ask."
While the connections expected a better effort in the Risen Star, no one was prepared for what happened in the mile-and-an-eighth stakes.
In an electrifying, front-running, 9 3/4-length win in the Risen Star, he was timed in 1:48.85 for the 1 1/8 miles. He received a 108 Beyer Speed Figure and a 105 Equibase Speed Figure for his victory, triple-digit numbers Sovereignty did not achieve until 2 1/2 months later in the Run for the Roses.
"He was exciting that day. If he didn't excite you that day, you don't have a pulse," Fiske said. "It was a jaw-dropping performance. (Television analyst) Randy Moss said it might be the fastest mile and an eighth a 3-year-old has ever run at the Fair Grounds. You hear that and think, 'Hmm. Maybe that was impressive.' It uncovered a dimension that we were unaware of. We knew he had talent. We knew he was fast, but I don't think anyone knew he was that fast."
In an instant, the colt bred in Kentucky by Ron Stolich out of the Bernardini mare Rockadelic was the talk of the 3-year-old world. But there was a big question to answer. Was Magnitude a freak or was it just a freaky effort?
The answer was put on hold when a bone chip was found and surgery knocked him out of Triple Crown consideration.
His comeback came in the Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows where he led throughout and pulled away with ease in the stretch to win by 9 1/4 lengths in 1:42.26 for the mile and a sixteenth, again achieving triple-digit speed figures.
"He validated his February form at Iowa," Fiske said. "Maybe the chip and the rest were a blessing in disguise. Off that number in the Risen Star, he might have regressed going into the Kentucky Derby and might not be as impressive as he is at the moment."
Aside from stepping up significantly in class, extending his speed over the 1 1/4-mile distance offers another new and perplexing challenge for the $450,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale buy.
"Obviously, he's never raced a mile and a quarter before and you never know until they do it, but the comments (jockey) Ben Curtis made after he got off the horse are encouraging," Fiske said. "After the race in Iowa, he said he could have kept going. He has a high cruising speed and he doesn't mind other horses being around him, at least at the beginning of a race. People have tried to run with him, but he just runs along until they drop off."
Magnitude will attempt to give Team Winchell its second Travers win since 2022, joining Epicenter . That Eclipse Award winner is also a son of Not This Time, which played an important role in buying him.
"You don't have to twist our arm to buy a Not This Time. We've had some luck with that stallion," Fiske said. "Magnitude is a very good-looking individual. You watch him and wonder if there's a more elegant horse on the racetrack. His stature, the way he moves. He floats over ground. Everyone on our team liked him."
And now, on the penultimate Saturday in August, he'll get the opportunity that eluded him on the first Saturday in May.
"He missed the Kentucky Derby, so this is kind of his Derby," Fiske said.
