Three 2025-26 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers are taking place this Saturday: the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita Park, the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, and the one-mile Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct Racetrack.
All three have drawn strong fields packed with talented horses. Let's analyze each race:
American Pharoah (G1)
#1 Desert Gate (3-2) is the morning-line favorite after dominating the Best Pal (G3) and rallying to finish a troubled second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). But his Bob Baffert-trained stablemate #6 Kristofferson (9-5) has run faster on the Beyer speed figure scale and may have more upside.
Purchased for $1.15 million as a yearling, Kristofferson caught my eye when he debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar. After dueling for the lead through splits of :22.01 and :44.89, he clocked his final quarter-mile in a strong :23.94 to prevail by three-quarters of a length in 1:08.83.
Kristofferson's fast final time is all the more noteworthy since he's bred like a route racer rather than a sprinter. He's a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist out of Impasse, a daughter of Quality Road. Impasse scored her biggest win in the 1 1/16-mile Glendale H., and Quality Road won four Grade 1 races over distances from one mile to 1 1/8 miles.
I believe Kristofferson will improve while stretching out in distance, especially since Baffert wins at a lofty 31% rate with horses running long for the first time. He's my choice to spring a mild surprise in the American Pharoah.
Santa Anita Park, Saturday, October 4, 2025, Race 3Entries: American Pharoah S. Presented by DK Horse (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Desert Gate (KY) Juan J. Hernandez 122 Bob Baffert 3/2 2 2Intrepido (KY) Hector Isaac Berrios 122 Jeff Mullins 6/1 3 3Plutarch (KY) Kazushi Kimura 122 Bob Baffert 10/1 4 4Civil Liberty (KY) Antonio Fresu 122 Doug F. O'Neill 5/1 5 5Balboa (KY) Umberto Rispoli 122 Bob Baffert 8/1 6 6Kristofferson (KY) Mike E. Smith 122 Bob Baffert 9/5
Breeders' Futurity (G1)
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher does well in the Breeders' Futurity. He's won the race four times since 2013, including two of the last three renewals with Forte (2022) and Locked (2023).
Pletcher can win the Breeders' Futurity again with #6 Ted Noffey (4-5). The unbeaten son of Into Mischief won his debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga before smashing the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1) over the same track by 8 1/2 lengths.
There's so much to like about Ted Noffey's Hopeful performance. He showed tactical speed tracking splits of :23.16 and :46.30 in second place, and then he blazed his final three furlongs in :35.91 to record a final time of 1:22.35, which earned a flashy 98 Beyer. That number towers over the Breeders' Futurity field and is the second-highest number posted by any juvenile so far in 2025.
Although Ted Noffey is 2-for-2 sprinting, he hasn't shown the blazing speed of a pure sprinter. He's reasonably quick early, but his strength is his finishing speed. That bodes well for his chances of stretching out around two turns. I'm confident Ted Noffey will keep his perfect record intact in the Breeders' Futurity.
Since there isn't much value in betting Ted Noffey to win, I'll recommend a longshot to use underneath in exotic wagers. #1 Blackout Time (10-1) ran second in his debut sprinting before obliterating a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park by 9 3/4 lengths. The form of that blowout win was flattered when runner-up I Did I Did returned to win his next start against similar competition. Third-place finish Password won his next start as well.
Blackout Time is trained by Kenny McPeek, a three-time winner of the Breeders' Futurity who has sent out longshots to crack the Breeders' Futurity trifecta on several occasions through the years. Blackout Time should work out a ground-saving trip while breaking from the rail, and his obvious affinity for route racing can carry him to a top-three finish.
Entries: Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1)
Keeneland, Saturday, October 4, 2025, Race 9
- Grade I
- 1 1/16m
- Dirt
- $650,000
- 2 yo
- 5:16 PM (local)
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Wgt | Trainer | M/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1Blackout Time (KY) | Cristian A. Torres | 122 | Kenneth G. McPeek | 10/1 |
| 2 | 2Big Dom (KY) | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | 122 | Thomas M. Amoss | 4/1 |
| 3 | 3Diciassette (FL) | Jonathan Ocasio | 122 | Patrick L. Biancone | 20/1 |
| 4 | 4Spice Runner (KY) | Tyler Gaffalione | 122 | Steven M. Asmussen | 12/1 |
| 5 | 5Litmus Test (KY) | Flavien Prat | 122 | Bob Baffert | 8/1 |
| 6 | 6Ted Noffey (KY) | John R. Velazquez | 122 | Todd A. Pletcher | 4/5 |
| 7 | 7Ewing (KY) | Jose L. Ortiz | 122 | Mark E. Casse | 9/2 |
Champagne (G1)
Another chalky outcome could unfold in the Champagne. #6 It's Our Time (1-1) is a heavy favorite after delivering a breathtaking debut win during the summer at Saratoga.
It's Our Time started his career in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. Facing eight rivals, he tracked and pressed fractions of :21.99 and :44.78 in second place before seizing command and powering clear to win by 17 3/4 lengths.
It's Our Time reached the finish line in the snappy time of 1:15.63, good for a 94 Beyer that tops the Champagne field. As a son of hot sire Not This Time out of a mare by Summer Front, It's Our Time has the pedigree to handle a one-turn mile, so I'm optimistic he'll bring his record to 2-for-2 even while stepping up in class and distance.
Underneath, #3 Universe (12-1) is worth using at double-digit odds. Trainer Kenny McPeek isn't known for cranking his juveniles to win on debut, yet Universe was much the best when kicking off his career in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. After saving ground inside of rivals, he had to wait for room in the homestretch, but surged away once clear to win by 4 1/2 lengths.
If Universe improves second-time out, he can land a spot in the Champagne trifecta.
Belmont at the Big A, Saturday, October 4, 2025, Race 7Entries: Champagne S. (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Curtain Call (FL) Ricardo Santana, Jr. 122 Mark E. Casse 6/1 2 2Stradale (KY) Manuel Franco 122 Steven M. Asmussen 8/1 3 3Universe (KY) Christopher Elliott 122 Kenneth G. McPeek 12/1 4 4Aye Eye (KY) Samuel Marin 122 Joseph F. Orseno 15/1 5 5Just Asap (KY) Florent Geroux 122 Mark E. Casse 12/1 6 6It's Our Time (VA) Luis Saez 122 Thomas M. Amoss 1/1 7 7Stickupwithoutagun (NY) Luis R. Rivera, Jr. 122 Kenneth G. McPeek 30/1 8 8Napoleon Solo (KY) Joel Rosario 122 Chad Summers 8/1 9 9Talkin (KY) Kendrick Carmouche 122 Danny Gargan 5/1
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in Saturday's Kentucky Derby preps?
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