Barely more than two weeks out from the 2025 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar, the fields are coming into focus for the 14 championship races.
For different reasons, two of the most interesting prospective fields can be found in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). The Juvenile seems likely to produce a short-priced winner, while the Juvenile Fillies could be ripe for an upset.
Here's an early look at how I see the two races unfolding:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)
The 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile has been won on four occasions by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. Three of his winners—Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012), and Forte (2022)—entered as proven Grade 1 winners.
Pletcher's Ted Noffey appears likely to follow the same path and cap his two-year-old season with a Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph.
Ted Noffey has been unstoppable so far. He had to work a bit to win his debut by 1 1/2 lengths, but then he smashed the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1) by 8 1/2 lengths, in the process clocking his final three furlongs in a terrific :35.91 to earn a powerful 108 Brisnet Late Pace rating.
Ted Noffey's strong finish in the Hopeful suggested he wouldn't have any difficulty stretching out over 1 1/16 miles for the Breeders' Futurity (G1), and indeed, he relished the assignment. After pressing the pace in second place, Ted Noffey sped his final five-sixteenths of a mile in a respectable :31.36 to put away the promising Blackout Time by 2 3/4 lengths, earning a 100 Brisnet Late Pace rating.
Beyer speed figures suggest Ted Noffey will be formidable in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He earned numbers of 98 and 97 in the Hopeful and Breeders' Futurity, which rank as two of the five highest numbers posted by two-year-olds in 2025. The only expected Breeders' Cup Juvenile entrant who has run faster is Brant, who earned a 101 in his debut win sprinting, only to regress to a 91 when taking the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
Brant hails from the barn of six-time Breeders' Cup Juvenile-winning trainer Bob Baffert, and the unbeaten $3 million auction acquisition looms as a primary challenge to Ted Noffey. But Brant hasn't run since the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 7, and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile marks his two-turn debut. On three occasions since 2021, Baffert has attempted to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with undefeated colts who hadn't raced since winning the Del Mar Futurity. Pinehurst (2021) and Prince of Monaco (2023) both finished fifth at the Breeders' Cup, while Gaming (2024) ran second.
I anticipate that Ted Noffey's recent race and two-turn experience will give him an edge over Brant in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. At this time, I view Ted Noffey as one of the likeliest winners at the 2025 Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
Favorites have historically done well in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, winning 20 out of 41 editions (49%). But when the favorite falters, the race often ends in a significant upset. Eight Juvenile Fillies winners (20%) started at 17-1 or higher, including four in the last dozen years.
I'm highlighting these stats because there isn't a clear favorite for the 2025 Juvenile Fillies. Tommy Jo is technically an unbeaten winner of the Spinaway (G1) and Alcibiades (G1), but she won the latter race via the disqualification of Percy's Bar, who crossed the wire first by 2 3/4 lengths. Iron Orchard was only a nose better than Rileytole in the Frizette (G1). Explora was much the best in the Oak Leaf (G2) last time out, but two starts back she lost the Del Mar Debutante (G1) to Bottle of Rouge.
In terms of Beyer speed figures, none of the prospective Juvenile Fillies entrants have run particularly fast. It shouldn't take much improvement for a longshot—maybe even a 15-1 or 20-1 longshot—to step up and challenge the top contenders. That sounds like a recipe for an upset.
Perhaps Meaning is one who can steal the show. As a daughter of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner out of a mare by perennial leading sire Into Mischief, Meaning has the pedigree to shine in the Juvenile Fillies. Take note, Gun Runner is the sire of 2021 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Echo Zulu, while Into Mischief counts 2022 Juvenile Fillies conqueror Wonder Wheel among his progeny.
Meaning debuted for trainer Michael McCarthy in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Los Alamitos Race Course. McCarthy's lifetime win rate with first-time starters stands at a modest 9%, and his runners often improve second-time out; even McCarthy's acclaimed colt Journalism lost on debut before maturing to win five graded stakes, including the Preakness (G1).
Nevertheless, Meaning was sharp enough to dominate her first start by 3 1/2 lengths. She wasn't the quickest filly into stride and raced in midfield for a brief time during the early stages of the race. But then she unleashed a sudden burst of acceleration to roar up inside the leaders and seize command. Meaning was soon confronted by a sustained challenge from eventual runner-up Thank You India, but despite racing a bit greenly at the top of the stretch, Meaning pulled away down the lane to win decisively.
I'm optimistic Meaning will move forward significantly while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles for her second start. She'll surely offer double-digit odds in the Juvenile Fillies, but I believe there's a path for Meaning to visit the winner's circle.
Now it's your turn! Which horses are you liking for the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies?
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