It's that time of year again! The 2025 Breeders' Cup is just around the corner, taking place on Oct. 31-Nov 1 at Del Mar | BloodHorse.com Track Profile">Del Mar.
Last year on Unlocking Winners, I selected seven of the 14 Breeders' Cup winners, my best-ever hit rate for the two-day championship. Equaling that 50% strike rate in 2025 won't be easy, but I'm giving it my best shot.
Here are my top two choices for each Breeders' Cup race:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Top Selection: European invader #1 Brussels (8-1) feels a bit overpriced in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Runner-up in the Middle Park (G1) and Cornwallis (G3), the beautifully bred son of Wootton Bassett brings better form to Del Mar than any of Europe's three previous Juvenile Turf Sprint conquerors. Sprinting five furlongs should suit him well, and drawing post 1 gives him an opportunity to save ground behind an expected fast pace. If Brussels can find a seam in the homestretch, he can kick on to spring the upset.
Second Choice: #9 True Love (7-2) boasts even stronger form lines than Brussels. The Chevely Park (G1) winner ran second against males in the Phoenix (G1) and trounced future two-time Group 1 winner Puerto Rico by five lengths in the Railway (G2). My concern is that True Love will get outsprinted early by #11 Schwarzenegger (5-1) and #12 Lennilu (8-1) and wind up racing wider than ideal, leaving her vulnerable to a ground-saving rival like Brussels. But I won't leave True Love off multi-race wagers.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Top Selection: The stakes-proven runners in the Juvenile Fillies field haven't run especially fast from a Beyer speed figure standpoint, so I'll take a shot with debut winner #3 Meaning (15-1). She made an aggressive early move to seize the lead in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Los Alamitos, then rebroke when called upon in the homestretch to drawn off and win by 3 1/2 lengths. She's bred to thrive over 1 1/16 miles and enters off sharp workouts for trainer Michael McCarthy, whose runners often improve with experience. I believe Meaning has lots of upside, making her an intriguing upset candidate.
Second Choice: #1 Iron Orchard (6-1) is unbeaten in three starts, including a wide-running triumph in the Frizette (G1). The Frizette is a pivotal prep for the Juvenile Fillies, producing seven of the last 14 winners, and Iron Orchard's pedigree indicates stretching out around two turns shouldn't be an issue. If she's able to save ground from post 1, Iron Orchard may move forward in a meaningful way.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Top Selection: Trainer Aidan O'Brien has started sending Group 1-caliber fillies to compete in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. He's won the last two editions and can win a third with #13 Precise (6-5). She exits wins in the Moyglare Stud (G1) and Fillies Mile (G1), and during the summer she handled a turning course at Goodwood to take the Prestige Fillies (G3). Her class can win the day at Del Mar, even from the far outside draw.
Second Choice: #9 Time to Dream (5-1) rallied from behind a slow pace to dominate the P. G. Johnson S. by five lengths, after which she closed a lot of ground to finish third by one length in the Jessamine (G2). Time to Dream should get a suitable pace to chase at Del Mar, setting the stage for a competitive finish.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Top Selection: #8 Ted Noffey (4-5) is unbeaten in three starts, including decisive triumphs in the Hopeful (G1) and Breeders' Futurity (G1). In both those Grade 1 wins, he pressed the pace before finishing quickly to earn Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 108 and 100. Ted Noffey has every chance to keep his unbeaten record intact in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Second Choice: The improving #2 Blackout Time (5-1) put up a good try against Ted Noffey in the Breeders Futurity, rating in third place before kicking on to finish second, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. He earned a respectable 93 Beyer that fits well against the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field, suggesting Blackout Time can complete the exacta behind Ted Noffey once again.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Top Selection: It's hard to believe #14 Gstaad (9-5) hasn't won a Group 1 race yet. He's finished second by a neck in the Prix Morny (G1), second by a head in the Vincent O'Brien National (G1), and second by three-quarters of a length in the Dewhurst (G1). Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won the Juvenile Turf a record seven times, and none of his past winners brought form as strong as Gstaad, so chances are Gstaad will find the competition easier at Del Mar and deliver his first top-level win.
Second Choice: #12 Bottas (6-1) is one of the main American contenders after unleashing quick finishes to win a Saratoga maiden special weight and the Pilgrim (G2) in fine fashion. In the Pilgrim, he clocked his final quarter-mile in :23.11 to get up and defeat a graded stakes-placed rival by a head. I don't think we've seen the best Bottas has to offer yet.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Top Selection: #6 Sweet Azteca (2-1) rarely misfires and has won a bevy of graded stakes between 6 1/2 furlongs and one mile, including the 2024 Beholder Mile (G1). In this year's 6 1/2-furlong Great Lady M (G2), Sweet Azteca set blazing fractions of :21.95 and :43.87 before hanging on to defeat multiple Grade 1 winner Kopion by 1 1/2 lengths in the track-record time of 1:14.32. Sweet Azteca enters the Breeders' Cup off blazing workouts (including a bullet six furlongs in 1:10 4/5), and I expect she'll prove difficult to catch.
Second Choice: #8 Hope Road (4-1) struggled against Kopion last winter and spring, but with Kopion opting to compete in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, there's a clearer path for Hope Road to challenge in the Filly & Mare Sprint. She exits a decisive two-length triumph in Saratoga's seven-furlong Ballerina (G1), and take note, three of the last four Filly & Mare Sprint winners prepped in the Ballerina.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Top Selection: On his best day, #5 Bring Theband Home (12-1) is blazingly fast. During the summer at Saratoga, he wired the 5 1/2-furlong Harvey Pack S. by 4 1/4 lengths in :59.90 (missing the course record by only 0.10), after which he led all the way to take the 5 1/2-furlong Troy (G2) by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:00.38. The Troy runner-up, Twenty Six Black, has since won two stakes.
Bring Theband Home's Saratoga wins yielded massive Beyers of 109 and 105, with the 109 ranking as clearly the highest number earned by any horse on turf this year. So why is Bring Theband Home a longshot in the Breedres' Cup Turf Sprint? It's because he tired to finish seventh in the Nearctic (G2) at Woodbine, his most recent race. But it's possible Bring Theband Home dislikes the Woodbine turf course--he also ran well below expectations when eighth in the 2024 Nearctic. Sprinting five furlongs over a tight-turning, firm turf course like Del Mar should suit Bring Theband Home and set the stage for a return to form.
Second Choice: #3 Arizona Blaze (5-1) ran well over this course and distance when second by half a length in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's better than ever this year and exits a win in Ireland's five-furlong Flying Five (G1). If Arizona Blaze can save ground from post 3 and work his way through traffic, he'll have every chance to factor for another exacta finish at Del Mar.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Top Selection: #10 Bentornato (5-2), runner-up by half a length in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Sprint, has only run once since then. But that one run was a big one. Making his four-year-old debut in the six-furlong Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. on Sept. 13 at Churchill Downs, Bentornato pressed seven-time stakes winner Skelly through fractions of :21.90 and :44.24 (quite fast given the recently shortened run-up distance for six-furlong sprints at Churchill) before powering away to dominate by 5 1/4 lengths in 1:08.43. That big win yielded a 108 Beyer, the highest last-out number belonging to any horse in the Sprint field. Bentornato's ability to partake in a fast pace and still kick on should suit him well in his return to the Breeders' Cup.
Second Choice: #5 Big City Lights (15-1) is occasionally brilliant, and his form has been improving. When last seen on Jan. 18, he smashed the six-furlong Don Valpredo California Cup Sprint S. by 7 3/4 lengths with a 103 Beyer. Big City Lights has trained up a storm in preparation for his return and may fire his best shot yet off the layoff.
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Top Selection: #8 Seismic Beauty (9-5) is unbeaten in three starts since stretching out around two turns. During the spring, she wired the Santa Margarita (G2) by five lengths over next-out winner Splendora. Then she led all the way to take Del Mar's Clement L. Hirsch (G1) by 1 1/2 lengths over Kopion. The latter win yielded a tremendous 110 Beyer, and a similar performance in the Distaff will make Seismic Beauty tough to catch.
Second Choice: #12 Dorth Vader (5-1) has shown flashes of talent for a long time, but she's risen to a new level this year. She trounced the Ogden Phipps (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths over a sloppy track, then handled fast footing just fine to finish second in the Personal Ensign (G1), a pivotal prep for the Distaff. In the Personal Ensign, Dorth Vader was beaten only a nose by reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna while pulling 9 3/4 lengths clear of Grade 1 winner Leslie's Rose. A top-three finish is well within reach.
Breeders' Cup Turf
Top Selection: #8 Minnie Hauk (8-5) dominated the three-year-old filly scene in Europe this year, winning the Epsom Oaks (G1), Irish Oaks (G1), and Yorkshire Oaks (G1) in succession. Then she failed by only a head to conquer males in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1), finishing second while pulling 5 1/2 lengths clear of the rest. Minnie Hauk has handled a wide variety of course conditions this year and thrives over 1 1/2 miles, stamping her as the horse to beat in the Turf.
Second Choice: #1 Rebel's Romance (5-2) has won the Turf twice before and remains in strong form this year. He exits a gate-to-wire triumph in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and brings an admirable 20-for-29 lifetime record to his third Breeders' Cup appearance. If Minnie Hauk falters, Rebel's Romance is an obvious choice to capitalize.
Breeders' Cup Classic
Top Selection: Japan's #5 Forever Young (7-2) ran one of the best races of 2025 when he chased down Romantic Warrior (a 10-time Group 1 winner with over $27 million in earnings) to win the Saudi Cup (G1) by a neck. Finishing 10 1/2 lengths back in third place was 2023 Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Ushba Tesoro. This was a massive performance from Forever Young, and it arguably knocked him out a bit, as he ran below his best when third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) a few weeks later.
Following a summer break, Forever Young returned to action with a 2 1/2-length triumph in Nippon TV Hai in Japan, an ideal prep for his return to the Breeders' Cup. Forever Young utilized a similar summer break and one-prep approach in advance of the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic, and he responded with a big effort. Breaking from the rail, he got sucked into a blazing pace, sticking within 1 1/2 lengths of :22.43, :44.96, and 1:09.44 pace fractions. Nevertheless, Forever Young fought on to finish third behind deep closer Sierra Leone, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths.
I anticipate the pace of this year's Breeders' Cup Classic will be a bit more relaxed. If that's the case, Forever Young can unleash his relentless homestretch drive to wear down the leaders and hold off the closers.
Second Choice: Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont (G1) winner Sovereignty was going to be a heavy favorite for the Classic until he scratched with a fever. So why not respect Derby and Belmont runner-up #9 Journalism (5-1)?
The Preakness (G1), Haskell (G1), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner has danced nearly every dance this year and ran well in the Pacific Classic (G1) last time out. Despite dropping too far off the lead and making an early move into a strong pace, he continued on to finish second behind accomplished older rival and 2024 Classic runner-up #1 Fierceness (5-2).
After a busy spring and summer campaign, Journalism has been freshened for two months, which will hopefully help him recapture some of his early speed. Don't count this accomplished and consistent sophomore out of the mix.
Breeders' Cup Mile
Top Selection: #10 Jonquil (10-1) has run three times over one mile. During the spring, he failed by only a head to defeat 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Henri Matisse in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (G1), a French classic. In the process, he finished ahead of next-out Prix du Jockey Club (G1) winner Camille Pissarro. Later, Jonquil beat older horses over a turning course in the Celebration Mile (G2) before making his U.S. debut in Keeneland's Coolmore Turf Mile (G1).
The Coolmore Turf Mile unfolded with a quick pace that spread out the field over nearly 15 lengths. Jonquil, breaking from post 11, was caught wide around both turns and fell a dozen lengths off the early pace. Despite this challenging setup, he clocked his final quarter-mile in a swift :22.70 to finish fourth, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. If Jonquil gets a better setup in the Breeders' Cup Mile, I believe he can move forward and surprise at double-digit odds.
Second Choice: #2 Notable Speech (5-2) ran well in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Mile, rallying to finish third by three-quarters of a length, and he remains in fine form this year. He exits a stretch-running score in the Woodbine Mile (G1) and has a strong chance to enhance trainer Charlie Appleby's stellar 11-for-27 (41%) record at the Breeders' Cup.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Top Selection: #3 Nysos (8-5) is a neck away from being unbeaten in six starts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. His lone defeat came when second to multiple Grade 1 winner Mindframe in a stellar edition of the seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1). Nysos is 2-for-2 racing around two turns, most recently scoring an easy win in the 1 1/16-mile San Diego H. (G2) at Del Mar, and his willingness to rate behind rivals gives him options for working out a favorable trip in the Dirt Mile. Three straight six-furlong workouts in 1:11 1/5, 1:11 3/5, and 1:11 flat suggest Nysos is gunning for a career-best performance in his first start since July.
Second Choice: While I respect defending Dirt Mile winner #6 Full Serrano (7-2), who is cutting back in distance off a fine second in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood (G1), my second choice is Baffert's three-year-old #2 Goal Oriented (6-1). The son of Not This Time has performed admirably against a deep group of sophomores, finishing a close third to Journalism in the Haskell (G1) and third to the multiple classic-placed Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Goal Oriented has weakened down the homestretch in all four of his route races over distances from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, so perhaps cutting back to one mile will unlock his best performance to date.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Top Selection: #14 See The Fire (5-1) has competed against fierce competition this year. Over good-to-firm turf--which is likely her preference--she's recorded top-four finishes against males in the Princes of Wales's (G1) and Juddmonte International (G1). Over very soft and heavy turf--probably not as ideal--she's finished second in the Prix de l'Opera (G1) and third in the Nassau (G1) against fillies and mares.
The last time See The Fire faced fillies and mares on good-to-firm turf, she smashed the 1 5/16-mile Middleton Fillies' (G2) by a dozen lengths over Beautiful Love, last year's Jockey Club Oaks (G3) winner who ran fourth by one length in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Facing fillies and mares on firm turf at Del Mar should make See The Fire a formidable win threat.
Second Choice: #9 Cinderella's Dream (9-2) competed three times in North American last year, winning the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Saratoga Oaks (G2) before finishing second by half a length in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. This year, she's campaigned exclusively abroad, scoring her biggest win in England's one-mile Falmouth (G1). Her recent form is a bit below her best, but returning to North American and stretching out over 1 3/8 miles may trigger the improvement Cinderella's Dream needs to challenge for another top-two finish at the Breeders' Cup. It's encouraging to note trainer Charlie Appleby's go-to jockey William Buick is named to ride Cinderella's Dream rather than her stablemate #6 Diamond Rain (6-1).
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the 14 Breeders' Cup races?
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