Mid-week disappointment for the connections and fans of presumptive 3-year-old champion male Sovereignty—scratched from the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) Oct. 29 due to running a fever—turns to opportunity for the nine remaining entrants in the $7 million race at Del Mar.
Without the race headliner, the race appears up for grabs—with all but Sierra Leone 's pacemaker stablemate Contrary Thinking appearing to have a realistic shot at victory. The remaining eight participants are all grade/group 1 winners in 2025, led by the top three finishers from last year's Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar: Sierra Leone, Fierceness , and Forever Young.
With Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), and Travers Stakes (G1) winner Sovereignty out, Fierceness assumes the favorite's role, at least on the revised morning line, pegged as the projected 5-2 choice by oddsmaker David Aragona. Fellow 4-year-olds Sierra Leone and Forever Young are co-second choices on the line at 7-2, followed by Preakness Stakes (G1)-winning 3-year-old Journalism at 5-1 and Mindframe , another 4-year-old at 6-1. The remaining runners are 10-1 or higher.
Morning-line odds are an estimation of how the public will bet; pari-mutuel wagering determines the final odds. In contrast to other races at Del Mar, Breeders' Cup management elected to permit computer-assisted wagering in the win pool within two minutes of post time over the two days of the Breeders' Cup, citing high liquidity in their wagering pools.
Besides Sierra Leone, the 2024 Classic winner, Fierceness is a proven commodity at the 1 1/4-mile Classic distance at Del Mar, having won the Aug. 30 Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) in his last start. The champion 2-year-old male of 2023 after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), he was runner-up in Eclipse Award voting for champion 3-year-old male of 2025, beaten by Sierra Leone in the ballots, just as he was in last fall's Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar.
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Fierceness did not draw the post Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher wished for Saturday's race, landing on the far inside. He ducked in toward the temporary rail from that position in the Pacific Classic, but Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez was able to keep his balance and correct him. Farther off the pace as a result, he asserted his superiority in the middle and late portions of the race, defeating Journalism—the second-most accomplished dirt 3-year-old of 2025 behind Sovereignty—by 3 1/4 lengths.
Reflecting on the rail draw, "I don't anticipate it's going to be an issue. Made a mistake the last time and think Johnny will be prepared for it. We're not going to overthink it," Pletcher said.
Horses with speed are often asked by their jockeys to secure position from inside draws, but the presence of Contrary Thinking could alter such a strategy. Contrary Thinking is a rabbit—a horse racing term for a speed horse entered in a race with the specific goal of adding pace to assist the chances of a stablemate, in this case, Sierra Leone.
"I have no problem with a pacesetter, as long as they run straight," Pletcher said. "Personally, I think if a horse is in a race to set a pace, they should probably be coupled with their entrymate, but that's a separate regulatory issue. But as far as someone in there to ensure honest fractions, I've got no problem with that."
The speed horses in the Aug. 31 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course did not keep such a straight line. Customary front-runner Phileas Fogg angled in soon after the break, and a hard-hustled Contrary Thinking to his inside then came inward after that initial movement, leading to chain-reaction bumping that resulted in Irad Ortiz Jr. being unseated from Mindframe, another Pletcher-trained runner. Mindframe was corralled and avoided injury and Ortiz was able to resume riding four days later after recovering from soreness.
Mindframe has not raced since the incident, nor have any of the other Jockey Club Gold Cup competitors that are entered in Saturday's Classic.
Pletcher still won the Jockey Club Gold Cup with Centennial Farms' Antiquarian, who closed from 10 lengths behind the early fractions to outlast Sierra Leone by 1 1/2 lengths. The latter trailed, 18 lengths off the early pace after Flavien Prat needed to alter course behind the fallen Ortiz in the race's opening furlong.
Fierceness, Mindframe, and Antiquarian give Pletcher three starters in the Classic, more than any trainer in the field. He is a 15-time Breeders' Cup winner, with one of those victories coming in the 2019 Classic with Vino Rosso .
Owners affiliated with Coolmore also have rooting interests with three horses in the Classic. They are part owners with Repole Stable in Fierceness, with Westerberg, Peter Brant, and Brook Smith in Sierra Leone, and with Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Bob LaPenta, and Elayne Stables in Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy.
Fierceness and Sierra Leone will join the stallion lineup at Coolmore's Ashford Stud in Kentucky next year. A decision on whether Journalism goes to stud there next year or in 2027 will be made after the Breeders' Cup.
Last year, three Japanese horses competed in the Breeders' Cup Classic—this year only one: Forever Young.
Forever Young has won six times in his native Japan and thrice in the Middle East, earning more than $15.7 million for owner Susumu Fujita in 12 starts, but in two races on United States soil, a victory has eluded him. An impeded third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, beaten two noses in a bumpy stretch run, he also showed in the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall. That afternoon, he turned in an even-paced race to finish 2 3/4 lengths behind late-charging Sierra Leone and 1 1/4 lengths in arrears of the always prominent runner-up, Fierceness.
Rated at 128 in March to stand atop the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings after his Saudi Cup (G1) victory, he has dipped slightly since to rate in a four-way tie for second at 127, trailing only the turf horse Ombudsman. Still considered the co-best dirt horse in the world with Sovereignty, Forever Young can validate his lofty rating in Saturday's key matchup.
Conditions appear more favorable Saturday than they did in last year's Classic at Del Mar when Forever Young drew the inside post, a position from which a horse can be at a tactical disadvantage, depending on how a race unfolds. Last fall he raced up close behind hot fractions and stayed one-paced.
Forever Young has a middle draw in post 5 this year, outside of Sierra Leone's pacemaker Contrary Thinking.
His trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, is pleased with where his star racehorse begins the Classic, which unfolds with a run to the first turn of more than five-sixteenths of a mile.
"Last year he got an inside (post), so the strategy was kind of limited," he said through interpreter Mariko Seki. "So that's why he was close to the lead. But this year, the ideal position is better in the middle."
As those who witnessed the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar will recall, Yahagi is skilled at preparing a horse for this two-day event. His two starters that year, Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine, were respectively victorious in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1T) and Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).
He brings a relatively fresh Forever Young into the Classic. After a disappointing third-place finish in the April 5 Dubai World Cup (G1), which followed a taxing stretch battle to defeat Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup, Yahagi gave the Real Steel colt nearly six months off. Forever Young returned Oct. 1 to win a prep race in Japan, a race for which Yahagi estimated Forever Young was 75% fit. He calls him 100% for Saturday.
"Of course, we are here to win a great race, the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic and become the first Japanese to win it," Yahagi said. "The Classic has been our target for a year."
According to Breeders' Cup publicity, Japanese horses have won 60 grade/group 1 races abroad, but only four of them on dirt. Three of them were recorded by Yahagi.
Ryusei Sakai, Forever Young's regular rider, returns in the irons.
"This is a redemption against last year's winner and runner-up," Sakai said in interpreted remarks. It is probably the last chance to beat both of them in a race, so I would like to get everything out of him and become the champion in the world."
Post time for the Breeders' Cup Classic, race 9 on Saturday's 12-race program, is 3:25 p.m. PT (6:25 p.m. ET) with national television coverage provided by NBC.
Del Mar, Saturday, November 1, 2025, Race 9Entries: Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Fierceness (KY) John R. Velazquez 126 Todd A. Pletcher 4/1 2 2Baeza (KY) Hector Isaac Berrios 122 John A. Shirreffs 15/1 3 3Nevada Beach (KY) Mike E. Smith 122 Bob Baffert 20/1 4 4Contrary Thinking (KY) Florent Geroux 126 Chad C. Brown 50/1 5 5Forever Young (JPN) Ryusei Sakai 126 Yoshito Yahagi 6/1 6 6Sovereignty (KY) Junior Alvarado 122 William I. Mott 6/5 7 7Sierra Leone (KY) Flavien Prat 126 Chad C. Brown 8/1 8 8Mindframe (MD) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 126 Todd A. Pletcher 10/1 9 9Journalism (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 122 Michael W. McCarthy 10/1 10 10Antiquarian (KY) Luis Saez 126 Todd A. Pletcher 15/1
