A good proposition wager on the four group 1 events comprising the Longines Hong Kong International Races Dec. 14 at Sha Tin Racecourse might be: How many of the four will be won by Hong Kong-based runners?
"Two" would be a heavy odds-on selection with the world's record money-earner Romantic Warrior looking to win the 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4-mile) Hong Kong Cup (G1) for the fourth year in a row, and Ka Ying Rising seeking his 16th straight win in the Hong Kong Sprint (G1) at 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs).
Three could be short odds, too, with Voyage Bubble, a looming presence for the home team in the Hong Kong Mile (G1) after winning the 2024 edition by 1 1/4 lengths over Japan-based Soul Rush, who also seems this year's main threat.
If the sporting blood is up, four would be risky but would offer a potentially nice profit. Hong Kong horses seldom (just once in the past 10 years) win the Hong Kong Vase (G1). The 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles) is rarely run by the locals. The thing is, this year's race doesn't really have a strong favorite and things could fall right for one of the home team trio.
Hong Kong Cup
There were plenty of questions about Romantic Warrior earlier this year. The world's all-time money-earning champ had been sidelined for 232 days following surgery to his left front leg and who knew if he could bounce back from that at age 7. He showed he could, winning by a convincing 1 1/2 lengths the Jockey Club Cup (G2) in November, the local prep for International Day. And he wasn't beating bums. The runner-up was the aforementioned Voyage Bubble.
"He is oozing confidence, that's for sure," jockey James McDonald said after a gallop Dec. 9 at Sha Tin. "I can't say he is getting any better. But he definitely hasn't declined."
Who could prevent the favorite from winning his fourth straight Cup? Lightly raced Bellagio Opera arrives on the back of a second in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1) and a win in the Osaka Hai (G1)—his only previous starts this season. Quisisana, a 5-year-old mare, won the Prix Jean Romanet (G1) in August and finished third in the British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (G1) in October. Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, who won the Japan Cup (G1) two weeks ago with Calandagan, saddles her.
Romantic Warrior drew gate 2 in a field of just seven for the Cup. Owner Peter Lau Pak Fai said at the Dec. 11 barrier draw if he continues to run well, the Acclamation gelding will get a rematch with Forever Young in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February, hoping to reverse this year's runner-up finish on dirt behind that opponent. Asked about a shot at the Dubai World Cup (G1) also on dirt, potentially against dual classic winner Sovereignty, he smiled and said, "We'll see."
Hong Kong Sprint
As impressive as Romantic Warrior looked in his prep for the Internationals, Ka Ying Rising arguably did him one better. The 5-year-old returned from winning the Oct. 18 The Everest (G1), humbling Australia's best sprinters, to win the Jockey Club Sprint in a hand ride by jockey Zac Purton as he rolled up his 15th straight win. He's lowered the course record twice along the way and looks to be improving.
Purton said Ka Ying Rising "is just a gem, this guy ... He's built up a good record and hopefully we can keep it that way."
Although he's clearly best of the field on paper, Purton said his tactics will depend on the draw.
"It depends what the other speed horses around me draw. I'd like to draw lower than higher. He hasn't had the best run with barriers in some of these races, so he's due to get a nice good one," Purton said early in race week.
Ask and ye shall receive. Ka Ying Rising drew gate 1 in the Dec. 11 ceremony.
Hong Kong Mile
Things get dicier in the Mile as Voyage Bubble, who as noted finished second to Romantic Warrior in the Jockey Club Cup, shortens up to what arguably is his best distance. While he's won all the way out to 2,400 meters, his victory in the 2024 edition of this race came at the expense of runner-up Soul Rush, who again looks to be his main opponent.
Soul Rush also has experience against Romantic Warrior—a victory, in fact, with that rival second in the Dubai Turf (G1T) in April. A win is a win but that result should be seen against the context that Romantic Warrior had just been all out to finish second to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup five weeks earlier while racing on the dirt for the first time.
Watch out for Embroidery, an upward-bound 3-year-old filly who won the Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas, G1) in April and the Shuka Sho (G1) in October; and the Aidan O'Brien-trained The Lion In Winter, who is short on wins but enters off a solid third in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) at Del Mar Nov. 1.
Hong Kong Vase
As noted, this is the race most likely to fall to a foreign-based horse. Hong Kong has won only once in the past 10 years while O'Brien alone has accounted for three trophies with Highland Reel in 2015 and 2017 and Mogul in 2020. He returns with Los Angeles, a multiple group 1 winner who faded to last on unsuitable ground in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) Oct. 5. Ryan Moore returns from injury to ride.
Also here are last year's winner, Giavellotto; Sosie, a French-trained multiple group 1 winner who finished fourth in the 2024 Arc and third this year; Urban Chic, winner of last year's Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, G1); Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) winner Goliath, last seen a fading 11th in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T); and Al Riffa, winner of the Irish St Leger (G1) two starts back and seventh in last month's Melbourne Cup (G1).
The locals? Not up to those standards. But Bundle Award has won at the distance and, as a confirmed late runner, could benefit from an expected decent early clip in the Vase. He also gets a ride from James McDonald, the Longines World's Best Jockey.
