1. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox
Gun Runner —Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
With Ted Noffey on the sidelines with bone bruising, Further Ado climbs into the top spot, elevated from his second-place position during the Derby Dozen's initial two weeks. Both horses are owned by Spendthrift Farm, the sponsor of Derby Dozen, but this colt is rated first on what he has accomplished. While many 3-year-olds are still question marks at a route, he is not. After breaking his maiden by 20 lengths in October at Keeneland, he followed that up with a 1 3/4-length win in the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs, with both wins coming at 1 1/16 miles. So not only is this Brad Cox trainee proven as a router, but also over the Churchill Downs main track, just as Sovereignty was in advance of him winning the 2025 Derby.
2. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Todd Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
This colt is "nearly" at the head of the class, rising from ninth to second in the rankings after his victory in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. As impressive as he was in that victory—running favored Cannoneer into submission and drawing off to score by 5 3/4 lengths in his two-turn debut—he trails Further Ado in this space due to all of his success having come at Gulfstream Park. He may be able to transfer his form elsewhere, but the fact is that he lost his one race away from Gulfstream when he debuted with a sixth-place finish at Aqueduct Racetrack last fall. His closing sixteenth in the Holy Bull was also slow at .07.10, but testing fractions made for a slow finish.
WATCH: King Reviews Holy Bull, Latest Derby Dozen
3. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox
Into Mischief —Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
Like Further Ado, he is riding a two-race win streak for Cox, having broken his maiden when racing 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs Nov. 1 before a follow-up romp in the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park. Having made all three starts in one-turn races—his debut came at 6 furlongs—he has not yet established his credentials as a two-turn router. He finished the Mucho Macho Man capable of handling additional ground, but the gradual progression in distance doesn't suggest that Cox viewed him as a slam-dunk router from the start. His next race will be telling—not only as a barometer of his stamina—but also to secure Kentucky Derby qualifying points. He currently has 0.
4. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner—Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
He closed as the 14-1 second choice among individual betting interests in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that ended Jan. 18, trailing only 6-1 choice Ted Noffey, when the latter was still on the Derby trail. It's obvious why the public likes him. After winning his debut at 1-mile via disqualification, Paladin took last fall's Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct at 1 1/8 miles. A $1.9 million yearling purchase, he has a noteworthy pedigree to match his form. Gun Runner is one of the hot young sires in North America, and his dam, the Tapit mare Secret Sigh, is a half sister to dual grade 1 winner and sire Mozu Ascot.
5. Brant
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Gun Runner—Tynan, by Liam's Map
Breeder: PTK (KY)
His two workouts this winter have been easy solo moves. When Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is cranking them up for a race, he tends to put them through more demanding workouts in company with spirited gallop outs. Baffert didn't even nominate Brant to the Feb. 7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park, opting to put some of his stablemates in there instead. A March return is more likely for the 2025 Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner, maybe in a race such as the March 7 San Felipe Stakes (G2) or a Derby prep out of town. Distance races this spring should provide more clues about his staying power following his fade to third in the 2025 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in his lone route.
6. Litmus Test
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Baffert
Nyquist —Study Hard, by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Machmer Hall (KY)
The 2025 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner will scratch from the Feb. 6 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, according to Oaklawn Park track announcer Matt Dinerman. Buetane will be trainer Bob Baffert's starter in the race, Dinerman posted on X. Stay tuned on where Litmus Test pops up next. The colt is an experienced two-turn performer, having also run fourth behind Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and third behind that now-sidelined foe in the Breeders' Futurity (G1).
7. Golden Tempo
Owner/Trainer: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable/Cherie DeVaux
Curlin —Carrumba, by Bernardini
Breeder: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables (KY)
His owners, Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable, have separately won the Derby in partnership with others. Phipps Stable and Stuart Janney III took the 2013 Derby with the Shug McGaughey-trained Orb, and Vinny Viola's St. Elias Stable teamed with Brooklyn Boyz Stables, MeB Racing Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, Siena Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds to capture the 2017 Derby with the Todd Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming. Golden Tempo, who improved to 2-for-2 in taking the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, resumed breezing Jan. 30 there.
8. Strategic Risk
Owner/Trainer: John Oxley/Mark Casse
Noble Bird—Strategize, by Afleet Alex
Breeder: John Oxley Living Trust (FL)
The Oaklawn main track didn't open for about a week after the winter blast that tore through the country, so that could impact locally stabled horses such as Strategic Risk in preparation for Friday's Southwest. Horses in warmer regions that have been able to get consistent on-track training elsewhere, such as at Fair Grounds, Santa Anita, or at tracks or training centers in Florida, might hold a fitness edge. At least he is a horse who has kept an active racing schedule. His two dirt routes have resulted in blowout victories, though not yet in graded stakes company.
9. Blackout Time
Owner/Trainer: Brookdale Racing, Lance Gasaway, and Magdalena Racing/Kenny McPeek
Not This Time—Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality
Breeder: Newstead Corp (KY)
He recorded his second workout since being a regulatory scratch from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in going a half-mile in :49 2/5 at Fair Grounds Jan. 30. When he gets further along in his training, he still must record a 5-furlong breeze to work his way off the vet's list, along with clearing tests required by regulators. His talent is not in doubt. He ran behind Ted Noffey and ahead of Litmus Test when he was second in the Breeders' Futurity last fall at Keeneland in his third career start.
10. Canaletto
Owner/Trainer: Magnier, Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant, and Brook Smith/Brown
Into Mischief—Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Trainer Chad Brown showed no doubts about this colt's staying potential by running this Into Mischief colt a mile first out. The $1 million yearling sped a mile in 1:36.28 with a promising long stride, earning exciting speed figures across the board. He looks like he'll have at most three starts under his belt before the first Saturday in May. So he likely needs to have everything go perfectly to make it to the Derby, or Brown could instead choose to await the Preakness Stakes (G1), the second leg of the Triple Crown, as he did successfully with lightly raced winners Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022)
11. Desert Gate
Owner/Trainer: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman/Baffert
Omaha Beach —Theogony, by Curlin
Breeder: Twin Oaks Bloodstock (KY)
One of California's top 2-year-olds of last year, he missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile due to a hock infection but has trained forwardly in recent weeks. Working in company with stablemate Litmus Test at Santa Anita Jan. 31, he traveled under less pressure from his rider in clocking 5 furlongs in 1:00 3/5. A winner of his first two starts last year, including the Best Pal Stakes (G3) at Del Mar, he would finish 2025 with runner-up finishes behind Brant and Intrepido in the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes (G1), respectively; rematched with Intrepido in Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
12. Liberty National
Owner/Trainer: Brookdale Racing, Fern Circle Stables, and Magdalena Racing/McPeek
Maxfield —Virtuoso, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds (KY)
After an eye-catching second-out victory in the fall at Churchill Downs, he ran below expectations in the Dec. 20 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds. Though he was a competitive second, he failed to pick up the opposition as easily as he did in his maiden victory, admittedly against more accomplished foes and when trying to slide up the fence. Perhaps the three-week turnaround also left him a little vulnerable to regression. He'll get another crack in stakes company in Friday's Southwest at Oaklawn. Note that he sold for $525,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, the highest-priced yearling of 37 that trainer McPeek purchased as an agent at the sale.
