The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues this Saturday with two more important stakes: the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs and the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita Park.
Both races look competitive. Here's how I see the action unfolding:
Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
The expected favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby is #6 Further Ado (9-5) an accomplished colt from the barn of Brad Cox. But which version of Further Ado will show up at Tampa--the one who crushed a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland by 20 lengths, earning a flashy 98 Beyer speed figure? Or the one who worked harder than expected to win the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) with an 82 Beyer?
That's a tough question. Further Ado is clearly talented, but the form of the Kentucky Jockey Club hasn't held up that well. And it's worth noting that among the 11 rivals he beat in his maiden win, only two came back to record next-out wins--one in a maiden claimer, and one on Tapeta.
In general, I'm a fan of Further Ado. But in his first start off a 14-week layoff, with questions about the caliber of competition he's defeated, I'm going to oppose him with #5 Powershift (7-2).
Powershift might be a maiden, but he showed potential when debuting in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa last month. He tracked honest fractions of :23.71 and :47.60 in third place, advanced to lead through six furlongs in 1:12.49, and then failed by only three-quarters of a length to turn back a prolonged challenge from fellow first-time starter Emerging Market.
The final time of 1:39.11 was fast, and Powershift pulled 13 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Even in defeat, he earned a 96 Beyer only two points below Further Ado's best number.
I'm optimistic Powershift will run as well or better in the Tampa Bay Derby. He has the tactical speed to sit a perfect trip stalking #1 Redland Rebels (10-1) and #9 Canaletto (5-2) before taking first run at the leaders under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. Plus, he has trainer Todd Pletcher in his corner, and Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby six times overall and five times since 2013.
Runaway Gulfstream Park maiden winner Canaletto and Sam F. Davis S. third-place finisher #8 The Puma (8-1) are logical horses to include in exotic wagers like trifectas and superfectas. I would even consider using Canaletto for as high as second place; he won his debut by eight lengths and may have a shot to edge out Further Ado if the latter runs below par in his sophomore debut.
San Felipe (G2)
Like the Tampa Bay Derby, the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe features an accomplished favorite: #4 Brant (1-1). He was the star of the summer at Del Mar last year, smashing a quality field in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight before battling to a one-length triumph in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1).
But is Brant a sprinter at heart? He's a son of Gun Runner (who sires sprinters and route racers alike) out of a mare by Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam's Map, so there's certainly a chance Brant is cut out to excel dashing seven furlongs or less.
I bring this up because Brant faltered when making his two-turn debut in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall, weakening after setting the pace to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths. It was a respectable showing, but oftentimes sprinters perform well in their first try around two turns, only to disappoint in subsequent attempts.
We saw this last year with Barnes, winner of the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2). He ran awesome in his two-turn debut, finishing second to future Preakness (G1) winner Journalism in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe (G2). But then Barnes finished last of five in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1), after which he cut back to sprint distances and recaptured his best form. Barnes, like Brant, was trained by Bob Baffert.
Even if Brant ultimately proves capable of winning over 1 1/16 miles, he enters the San Felipe off a relatively light work tab--only six workouts since Jan. 22. He may prove short of peak fitness for his 2026 debut, so I'll aim to beat Brant with #6 So Happy (2-1).
So Happy showed promise when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar, charging from just off the pace to prevail by three-quarters of a length. But he elevated his game to another level in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2), his second and most recent start. He was never more than three lengths behind blazing fractions of :22.03 and :43.56, and down the homestretch he outkicked Hopeful (G1) runner-up Buetane (who raced farther behind the hot early pace) to win by two lengths in the fast time of 1:21.12. The 96 Beyer So Happy received is higher than the 95 Beyer Brant earned in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Since the San Vicente, So Happy has trained up a storm. Four furlongs in :47 4/5... five furlongs in :59 4/5... six furlongs in a bullet 1:11 3/5... four furlongs in :46 4/5. These workouts are considerably quicker than the ones So Happy posted leading up to the San Vicente, hinting at the possibility he's still improving.
Some bettors may question whether So Happy will handle stretching out over 1 1/16 miles since he's a son of 2015 champion male sprinter Runhappy. But Runhappy has sired a few notable route racers, including Alysheba (G2) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Smile Happy, and So Happy may have inherited additional stamina from his dam sire Blame, winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
With Brant, former claimer #1 Flashy Fritz (30-1), and promising maiden winner #5 Potente (9-2) likely to ensure an honest pace in the San Felipe, So Happy figures to sit a perfect trip rating behind the leaders before pouncing when called upon, just like he did in the San Vicente.
Potente and Robert B. Lewis (G3) third-place finisher #3 Secured Freedom (8-1) have solid shots to finish in the top two or three, making them must-use horses for trifecta tickets.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
