Entering the Kentucky Derby (G1) trying to break a jinx that's almost as old as the race itself isn't the way trainer Chad Brown planned to arrive at the 152nd running of the classic.
But that's where he is with Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market, and Brown is more than OK with it.
Emerging Market will try to become the first Derby winner to win with only two starts since 1883 when Leonatus did it in the ninth Derby. That's 143 years, if you're counting.
Brown is also entering Gazelle Stakes (G3) winner Always a Runner in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) with only two starts.
"It wasn't what I mapped out last fall, coming with my Oaks and Derby chances with only two starts, but it just worked out that way," Brown said after both of his contenders worked April 24 at Churchill Downs.
Since 1937, six Derby starters have had only two lifetime starts and, among those, the best finishes are T O Password, fifth in 2024, and China Visit, sixth in 2000.
But Brown said he's not sure the Derby jinx matters because so few have even tried beating it, especially in modern times, where points—or previously graded earnings—from prior races are needed to make the field.
And jinxes can be broken. Emerging Market, as an unraced juvenile, would have fit the curse of Apollo, who had been the last to win in 1882 after not racing at 2. That's now been done twice in the last decade by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify and 2023 Derby winner Mage .
"It takes a special horse. I think there's more reward than risk with this particular horse," Brown said of Emerging Market's lack of starts, adding that he prefers having "a horse like him that has very special ability and is lightly raced" rather than an experienced longshot.
Emerging Market won his Feb. 7 debut in a two-turn Tampa Bay Downs maiden race. He followed that with the Louisiana Derby win March 21 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, which gave him the points needed to be in the Derby.
While he is lightly raced and will face a field of 20 horses for the first time, both prior starts in nine-horse fields figure to help him navigate the Derby lineup, Brown and jockey Flavien Prat said.
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"He's got a great mind," Brown said. "He was in two sort of dogfights down to the wire, in both his maiden in against a very promising horse. And then in Louisiana Derby, having drawn the widest post and only a second start, and outfinishing a horse that had nine career starts going to the race. So, I'm gonna look at those things. I don't know, (but) to me they're worth more than just two starts on paper. I think you get more out of that."
"In both his runs, he showed a lot of professionalism," Prat said. "He's been very straightforward so far. Yeah, he hasn't run as many (races) as most of the rest of the field, but the reality is that (a 20-horse field is) going to be a first for everybody. ... And I thought he responded very well to the challenge in his first two races. So I'm confident that he could adapt."
Going back to the earliest training of the Klaravich Stables' Candy Ride colt, Brown said Emerging Market "stood out—as obvious as a horse can that he had a lot of ability."
While pointing to a summer start, the colt had an incident in July when he got a shoulder laceration and missed training. Then, when pointing to a fall start and "working brilliantly," Emerging Market contracted a virus and developed pneumonia that required hyperbaric treatment and time on the farm.
"But here he is," Brown said.
With those setbacks, Brown said he let the horse determine the path forward.
"Those are disappointing situations that you encounter in this job and, unfortunately, more often than not, it's your best horses that end up having setbacks, it seems," Brown said. "So, it's not like when we got the horse back going that we circled the Derby, but I think what you need to do—I've found over the years—is just take it day by day, week by week, month by month and just see where the horse takes you. And once the horse started to get some consistent training again ... and I was able to get him into a maiden race, then you can pick your head up and start looking downfield a little bit to see what's on the horizon ... I always gave the horse a chance to get here."
The Oaks filly, who will be ridden by Jose Ortiz—aboard for her final work—also dealt with illnesses and other matters that delayed her racing. She won her debut Feb. 6 at Tampa Bay Downs.
"I think her best races are ahead of her," Brown said of the Gun Runner filly owned by Douglas Scharbauer and Three Chimneys Farm.
Brown, for all of his accomplishments as a five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer, is seeking his first wins in the Derby and Oaks. He is a two-time Preakness Stakes (G1) winner, with Seth Klarman of Klaravich Stables solely owning his 2022 winner, Early Voting , and co-owning his 2017 winner, Cloud Computing, with William Lawrence.
Emerging Market will be Brown's 10th Derby starter since 2013, with second-place finishes by Good Magic (2018) and Sierra Leone , nosed out in a 2024 photo, as his best finishes to date.
Winning either race "means so much to me, personally," Brown said. "It would mean a lot to my team. (We've) worked so hard. We've won so many big races together. And these are two races that we've been knocking on the door. We've hit the board a few times in both races. We've had some tough defeats. I remember Search Results getting nailed at the wire by (2021 Oaks winner) Malathaat, and that was a tough one. ... I'm proud of my team. Over the years, we've gotten horses here the right way to run their best races. They just weren't quite good enough. Hopefully, this year, we have two horses that are."
