There are a couple of interesting Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) trends that hover above Juddmonte Farms' homebred Mandaloun .
Ever since 2011, when Animal Kingdom captured the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, each 3-year-old that has crossed the wire first in America's most famous race exited a winning performance.
Of course, crossing the wire first didn't help Maximum Security in 2019 as he was disqualified from first to 17th and the blanket of roses went to Country House , who was third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his final prep for the opening leg of the Triple Crown.
In a much shorter time frame, the lead-up to the May 1 Kentucky Derby featured eight graded stakes worth the maximum 100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the top four finishers. From all those opportunities for a young colt to shine, only one favorite—undefeated 2-year-old champion Essential Quality —emerged victorious.
Mandaloun, a son of Into Mischief trained by Brad Cox, who will also saddle Essential Quality in the Run for the Roses, was one of the more noteworthy favorites to come up short. He was a 6-5 choice in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), but turned in a weak sixth-place effort under regular rider Florent Geroux which baffled his connections so much that they have written it off and are hoping for a bounce-back effort on the first Saturday in May.
"We're still scratching our head for why he didn't show up and put in a better performance in the Louisiana Derby," Cox said. "I'm just going to draw a line through it. I talked it over with (Juddmonte general manager) Garrett O'Rourke, and we've made the commitment to march forward to the Kentucky Derby if all seems well and all's been well so far. We'll give him a chance."
Out of the Empire Maker mare Brooch, Mandaloun won his two starts at 2, taking an Oct. 24 maiden race at Keeneland, followed by an allowance optional claiming win at Churchill Downs. The Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots kicked off his 3-year-old campaign and he was third by a length, beaten by fellow Kentucky Derby qualifier Midnight Bourbon and Proxy .
Four weeks later in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), the Juddmonte colt earned his spot in the Run for the Roses with a 1 1/4-length victory over Proxy and Midnight Bourbon.
His odds in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby reflected the wide-spread belief that he was a top Triple Crown candidate, but after tracking in third through the early stages of the March 20 stakes, he backed up in the stretch and finished sixth, nearly 12 lengths behind Run for the Roses starter Hot Rod Charlie.
"Something must have been amiss that day, but we don't know what it was, and we hope he's ready to come back to a top race. Even Secretariat lost before the Kentucky Derby. Young horses are not as consistent as older horses, but they can turn it around quickly," O'Rourke said. "The only apprehension we have is that you can't figure out what happened, and you want to get an explanation from a jockey or trainer, and they are a bit confused. You can look at it two ways. As a disappointment, you look at his Ragozin Sheets numbers and he was on a nice pattern, and then he regressed by quite a bit. But the good thing is he came out of the race well. He's always been a sound horse, and he seems a happy horse."
As a sign of how Mandaloun appears to be on an upswing after his debacle in the Louisiana Derby, he rebounded with a pair of bullet works at Churchill Downs, zipping six furlongs in 1:11.40 April 17 and five furlongs in :58.80 April 10. He put in his final work April 24 in company with Joe Frazier, going five furlongs in 1:00 under Florent Geroux before an additional furlong gallop-out in a sparkling 1:12 3/5.
Helping Cox and O'Rourke with the decision was the rash of upsets in the final Kentucky Derby preps and injuries to Life Is Good and Greatest Honour that left the opening leg of the Triple Crown with a clear-cut favorite in Essential Quality and numerous directions the betting public can turn for the second and third choices in the wagering.
"In making this decision to run, we were looking for a few things. We wanted him to be in good health, which he is, and we wanted to see what the opposition is doing, and outside of (Essential Quality), a lot of the other fancied horses stubbed their toes. By default, it's giving us confidence to move forward," O'Rourke said. "All of them except Essential Quality have only done it once and you want to see them do it twice. After the Risen Star we were one to watch, and then we stubbed our toe, but I think we absolutely deserve to be in the Derby, and we're not going just for a day out at the races. We hoping whatever ailed him last time, he can put it behind him and turn in a better performance."
Mandaloun's pedigree, with a dam who was a group 2 winner and is by a Belmont Stakes (G1) winner and a sire who produced last year's Kentucky Derby victor, is also fueling O'Rouke's belief that the 1 1/4-mile distance is not beyond the 3-year-old's scope.
"He's an Into Mischief and he has some speed, but there's a lot of Empire Maker in him. The size, the length of him—and he looks like a two-turn horse," O'Rourke said. "I hope the distance will not be a problem. Maybe a little easier pace will help him get into his stride, and he'll be right there turning for home. The stretch run of a 10-furlong race is where you find out about a horse, and I hope he's capable of proving himself there. We know he has to find some lengths to be one of the main contenders."
If Mandaloun rebounds with a winning effort it would be historic for a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately race such as the Kentucky Derby. Since 1940, only two winners of the 10-furlong classic have finished fifth or worse in their final prep, and they are Iron Liege in 1957 and Count Turf in 1951 who were both fifth.
In the last three years, the dreaded Curse of Apollo was broken in 2018 when Justify became the first Kentucky Derby winner since 1882 without a race at 2, and a year later Maximum Security became the first winner disqualified for a racetrack foul.
So, could it be time for another virtually unprecedented outcome?
"Most people are going to pay attention to a horse's last race more than any other, but if he gets back to the Risen Star with some improvement, he'll be a big factor," Cox said. "He's a sound horse. He's a great mover. I think as the media gets here and watches this horse train, people will take notice. He's a beautiful horse. He's an eye-catcher."
It's been a while and circumstances are different, but a couple of sources of hope for Team Mandaloun are Monarchos (2001) and Thunder Gulch (1995) who were acclaimed as a favorite or a top contender after winning the Florida Derby (G1) but then were victorious on the first Saturday in May at odds of 10-1 and 24-1, respectively, after losing their final tune-up for Kentucky Derby Day.
"You look back at Thunder Gulch. He was fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), and then people forget about him and when he wins the Kentucky Derby at 24-1, you look back and say it shouldn't be that much of a surprise," Cox said. "People say you have to have them ready to peak in May, but you also have to have them ready to earn those qualifying points or you're not getting in."
