The connections of Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Journalism expressed relief after the anticipated Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite drew post 8 for the $5 million classic May 3 at Churchill Downs.
A post position near the middle of the 20-horse field—and not one either to the far inside or outside—could leave jockey Umberto Rispoli with options aboard the Michael McCarthy-trained Curlin colt, who has enough speed to secure position but whose greatest strengths are his stamina and late kick. He is perfect in four routes after a debut third-place finish in a sprint.
"The fact that he drew well is encouraging. It's positive," said Aron Wellman, president and founder of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, one of the entities that owns the three-time graded stakes winner.
"The horse is doing well," Rispoli added just after the post draw. "I'm just happy, quiet, relaxed."
Post 8 has achieved an above-average win rate of 9.6% in the Derby, including Mage 's victory in 2023.
With such a large field in the race—most stakes races are capped at 14 starters—there is often a scramble for position as the field compresses to the inside of the racetrack, which can result in horses that are not in the leading cluster getting shuffled back. So horses drawn toward the inside are often asked to show speed and establish position. A slow start can prove costly for such types.
Reigning 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull drew the inside post, a sometimes-intimidating position on the rail. Having early speed, it may prove less of a disadvantage than it would for a horse without his quickness. All of his route wins, topped by a victory in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), have come when he has gone to the early lead.
"I don't need to give instructions on what he's going to have to do," Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said. "He's going to have to leave there running. And the horse wants to do that anyway."
Not since Ferdinand in 1986 has a horse won from the inside post position.
Citizen Bull, pegged at 20-1 on the morning line, is one of two starters for Baffert, a six-time Derby winner who is returning to the race for the first time since 2021 when his horse Medina Spirit crossed the wire first but was ultimately disqualified for a medication infraction. Baffert served a three-year suspension from competing at Churchill Downs Inc.-owned tracks before CDI rescinded the suspension last summer.
Baffert, who can become the race's only seven-time winner with a victory in the Derby, also runs Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) winner Rodriguez, a 12-1 shot drawn in post 4. Like Citizen Bull, he has fared best going to the lead. Two-time Kentucky Derby winner Mike Smith rides Rodriguez and Martin Garcia is on Citizen Bull.
"I think Citizen Bull is quicker of the two," Baffert said, but reflecting on race tactics, "I'll just leave it up to the jockeys."
The Brendan Walsh-trained East Avenue (post 12, 20-1) is also expected to be hustled to secure position under Manny Franco, having also been most effective when daring foes to catch him.
Other horses also expected to be among the first flight of runners in the Derby include Neoequos (post 2), American Promise (post 5), Grande (post 10), and Owen Almighty (post 20).
Along with strong-finishing Sovereignty, East Avenue is one of two horses in the field owned by the global racing powerhouse Godolphin. Victorious in countless grade/group 1 races all over the world, Godolphin hasn't yet won a Kentucky Derby.
Sovereignty (post 18), winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The Into Mischief colt, the 5-1 second choice on the morning line, is proven on the Churchill Downs surface. Last fall, beneath the twin spires, he won the Street Sense Stakes (G3) by five lengths, defeating fellow Kentucky Derby competitors Sandman and Tiztastic—winners of the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) this year.
"We weren't particularly choosy; I said I didn't want (post) 1 or 2," Mott said of his hopes ahead of the random draw.
Mott noted that his Kentucky Derby winner in 2019, Country House , started toward the outside, as Sovereignty will. Country House, who crossed the wire second but was elevated to first upon the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference, began from post 18.
Sovereignty, with Junior Alvarado to ride, is just to the outside of the Mark Casse-trained Sandman (post 17, 6-1), who has Jose Ortiz in the saddle. No horse has won from post 17 in 45 attempts, which seems a statistical aberration. Posts 16 and 18 have four wins and two wins, respectively.
The bulk of those statistics reflect a period before Churchill Downs introduced a continuous 20-horse starting gate in 2020. Not as wide compared with the two gates Churchill Downs previously used—one standard gate and a smaller auxiliary one—the continuous gate is positioned on the racetrack so as not to leave those on the inside or outside in such an extreme position. There is more than a quarter-mile run to the first turn.
Post positions can change with scratches, typically resulting in outside horses moving closer toward the inside.
Last year's Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan, started from post 3, with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. engineering a ground-saving stalking trip that was instrumental in his nose victory over Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
Hernandez rides Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Burnham Square, a late runner and 12-1 shot.
"Brian knows where to be on this track and 9 is a good spot," trainer Ian Wilkes said. "You're not way down inside; you're not way outside. Brian can save some ground around the first turn and figure it out from there."
As Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen looks for his first Derby win, he'll have an easy time spotting the start of his two runners as grade 1-placed maiden Publisher and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic will start side by side, in posts 13 and 14, respectively.
"Both of my horses are deep closers," Asmussen said. "The faster they go early, the better, and they'll have a chance to read it. When you put 20 horses together of this caliber, there's a lot of variables that can keep the fastest horse from winning it."
There is one Derby also-eligible, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza, who is forecasted to start at 12-1 odds if he competes. He could gain a starting berth if a scratch occurs before 9 a.m. ET May 2. In which case, he would move into the field on the far outside, with last year's Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat aboard. Prat is to ride 30-1 longshot Neoequos if Baeza does land in the body of the field.
There are two Japanese-trained starters in this year's Kentucky Derby: Admire Daytona (post 6), who qualified by capturing the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai and Luxor Cafe (post 7) via the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. The latter, a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah , is a winner of four straight in Japan.
Post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby, race 11 on a blockbuster program Saturday at Churchill Downs, is 6:57 p.m. ET. The Derby and much of the card will be televised nationally on NBC.
Last year, a crowd of more than 156,000 attended the Derby, and television viewership peaked at more than 20 million during the race and shortly afterward.
