Strong pricing for yearlings typically spills over into the weanling market, where buyers hope to get higher quality for better value despite the additional months of care (and its cost) required.
A record-setting Keeneland September Yearling Sale certainly had this effect on the weanlings later sold during the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. More weanlings sold during the 2024 sessions for a higher average and higher median than was generated by this segment of the market in 2023. Buyers took home 860 weanlings for an average of $73,384 (4.6% higher than in 2023) and a median of $40,000 (up from $35,000 a year earlier).
What the November sale also produced for the weanling sellers was significantly more expensive buy-backs. A strong yearling market has a dual effect. While buyers are willing to spend more for weanlings, the sellers also have more options, and many chose this year to hold onto their stock with the hope of finding greater rewards during the 2025 yearling sales.
This observation was reinforced by a decile analysis of the Keeneland November weanling sales.
For the top decile, the top 10% of weanlings by price, the average was $286,628, which was down from the top decile average of $306,813 seen in 2023. The price range for the top decile of 2024 represented horses sold from $190,000 up to $900,000 and included 25 that sold for $100,000 or more. In 2023, the price range of the top decile was $185,000 to $750,000 and included 26 that cost $100,000 or more.
What drove the 2024 average down compared with 2023 was the loss of higher-value horses that did not sell. Both years produced an RNA rate of 21% for weanlings. But in 2023, 10 weanlings sold for $500,000 or more, compared with five in 2024. Also, the overall average price for all 2024 weanling RNAs climbed 14% to $53,894, up from $47,103 a year ago.
During this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale, the top decile—those horses perceived as the top of the market as determined by their sale price—produced a $651,972 average, which was 4.3% higher than the comparable September yearlings of 2023.
Outside the top decile at the November sale, the weanling market was robust for the ones that sold.
Six deciles showed double-digit percentage growth in average price compared with 2023. The second-highest decile by price showed a 5.8% increase in average price to $148,779, while the two lowest deciles showed declines in average price (down 7.9% for the ninth decile and a 43.7% bottom-dropper for the 10th decile).
For weanlings that sold in the $12,000 to $40,000 range (representing the sixth to eighth deciles), the growth in their average price ranged from 19% to 21%.
The fourth and fifth deciles for weanlings sold (from $40,000 to $80,000) produced plenty of upside for breeders with averages up 15.7% and 15%, respectively. These deciles also revealed the potential for strong returns for pinhookers shopping in this range. Looking just at weanlings in the fourth decile, they represent horses sold for $57,000-$80,000 and averaged $69,058. Compare this with the fourth decile during the September sale, where horses sold for $100,000-$150,000 and averaged $127,211.
Enough evidence exists to suggest positive returns for those who shouldered this year's higher weanling costs and maybe more for those breeders who chose to hold onto their stock until next year.
