After completing his juvenile season with victories in the 2024 American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to nail down champion 2-year-old male honors, Citizen Bull is expected to make his 3-year-old debut on a busy day for the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Citizen Bull is listed as the 6-5 favorite in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) Feb. 1 at Santa Anita Park, one of three races offering Derby qualifying points Saturday. Based on recent history, the champion's performance Saturday figures to immediately offer clues to his ability to continue progressing toward this year's classics.
Of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners since 2000, the lone pair to capture the Kentucky Derby (G1) both opened their 3-year-old seasons with victories. Street Sense followed his 2006 Juvenile win with a score in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) while Nyquist debuted at 3 with a victory in the 2016 San Vicente Stakes (G2) following his 2015 Juvenile triumph.
A look at the 3-year-old debuts and Kentucky Derby performances of Juvenile winners serves as a reminder of how tough it is for a top 2-year-old to continue forward with classic form. Thirteen of the Juvenile winners since 2000 did not start in the Derby and five from that group either did not race again or made their 3-year-old debuts after the classics.
Only six Juvenile winners since 2000 won 3-year-old debuts conducted before the Kentucky Derby (G1). It's a tough game.
As for Saturday, the toughest competition for Bob Baffert-trained Citizen Bull is expected to come from stablemates Madaket Road and Rodriguez. Both enter off impressive second-out maiden wins at Santa Anita, with Madaket Road earning that victory Dec. 26 and Rodriguez scoring Jan. 4.
Besides the Lewis, this week's Road schedule sees Aqueduct Racetrack playing host to the $250,000 Withers Stakes and Gulfstream Park offering the $265,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3). All three races offer 20 qualifying points to the winner and 42 points overall for the top five finishers.
| Juvenile Winner | 3yo debut: date, race, track | 3yo debut finish | Kentucky Derby finish |
| 2024 Citizen Bull | Feb. 1, Robert B. Lewis S., Santa Anita Park | TBD | TBD |
| 2023 Fierceness | Feb. 3, Holy Bull S., Gulfstream Park | 3rd | 15th |
| 2022 Forte | March 4, Fountain of Youth S., Gulfstream Park | won | DNS |
| 2021 Corniche | July 31, Amsterdam S., Saratoga Race Course | 9th | DNS |
| 2020 Essential Quality | Feb. 27, Southwest S., Oaklawn Park | won | 3rd |
| 2019 Storm the Court | Feb. 9, San Vicente S., Santa Anita Park | 4th | DNS |
| 2018 Game Winner | March 16, Rebel S., Oaklawn Park | 2nd | 5th |
| 2017 Good Magic | March 3, Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park | 3rd | 2nd |
| 2016 Classic Empire | Feb. 4, Holy Bull S., Gulfstream Park | 3rd | 4th |
| 2015 Nyquist | Feb. 15, San Vicente S., Santa Anita Park | won | won |
| 2014 Texas Red | Feb. 1, San Vicente S., Santa Anita Park | 2nd | DNS |
| 2013 New Year's Day | DNS | DNS | |
| 2012 Shanghai Bobby | Jan. 26, Holy Bull S., Gulfstream Park | 2nd | DNS |
| 2011 Hansen | Jan. 29, Holy Bull S., Gulfstream Park | 2nd | 9th |
| 2010 Uncle Mo | March 12, Timely Writer S., Gulfstream Park | won | DNS |
| 2009 Vale of York | March 4, Bahri Al Bastakiya, Meydan Racecourse | 5th | DNS |
| 2008 Midshipman | Sept. 18, allowance race, Belmont Park | won | DNS |
| 2007 War Pass | Feb. 24, allowance race, Gulfstream Park | won | DNS |
| 2006 Street Sense | March 17, Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs | won | won |
| 2005 Stevie Wonderboy | Jan. 14, San Rafael S., Santa Anita Park | 2nd | DNS |
| 2004 Wilko | March 19, San Felipe S., Santa Anita Park | 4th | 6th |
| 2003 Action This Day | Feb. 8, Sham S., Santa Anita Park | 4th | 6th |
| 2002 Vindication | DNS | DNS | |
| 2001 Johannesburg | April 7, Gladness S., Curragh | 2nd | 8th |
| 2000 Macho Uno | July 25, allowance, Saratoga Race Course | 2nd | DNS |
