The Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) is the first of three prep races for the 2025 Kentucky Derby scheduled at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race offers qualifying points for the 151st Kentucky Derby to the top five finishers, distributed on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis. It will be followed in Gulfstream's prep series by the Marc 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the March 29 Florida Derby (G1).
This race has been an important prep through the years, not only in producing Kentucky Derby winners, including Go for Gin in 1994, Funny Cide in 2003, and Barbaro in 2006, but other stars of the sport such as White Abarrio, the 2022 victor who won last weekend's Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1).
The Holy Bull Stakes will be shown live on CNBC and Peacock and has a post time of 5:13 p.m. ET.
Read on for information about each contender and insights into betting the race.
1. Kinetic Control (15-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Dale Romans
Owner: Albaugh Family Stable
Career record: 4 starts—1 win—2 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $107,761
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 87
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Not This Time —Devious d'Oro, by Medaglia d'Oro
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace
Analysis: This colt is an intriguing prospect as he makes his first start in a Kentucky Derby prep race after four prior appearances. In his first three races, Kinetic Control encountered trouble each time—he broke slowly out of the gate in his first two races, and had to steady between horses in his third start. Still, he rallied to finish second in his debut back in August and then again in his second start in September before finishing sixth in his third race as the odds-on favorite. In his final start of 2024, Kinetic Control broke well and led from start to finish in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs, winning by 1 1/2 lengths. He has been training at Gulfstream in recent weeks and appears ready for his 3-year-old debut. Look for him to go straight to the lead under first-time jockey Junior Alvarado if he has a good start.
2. Ferocious (9-5)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, High Step Racing, and Marquee Bloodstock
Career record: 4 starts—1 win—2 seconds—0 thirds
Career earnings: $287,500
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 102
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 8
Pedigree: Flatter—Napier, by Midnight Lute
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: Unlike the six other Holy Bull starters, Ferocious has experience running in top-level races, and he'll be one of the main storylines in Saturday's race as he returns for his 3-year-old debut. After being purchased for $1.3 million as a 2-year-old training, he won his first start impressively last summer in a sprint race and then finished a close second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs and second again in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G1). He completed his 2024 season with a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), also held at 1 1/16 miles. Fierceness has yet to run a truly bad race, yet one wonders if he's already maximized his talent and if one or two other Holy Bull contenders with less experience actually has a higher ceiling. No doubt about it, though: he's in good and patient hands with trainer Gustavo Delgado and jockey Javier Castellano, who teamed up to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage . Ferocious will be a big threat to win the Holy Bull if he can pick up where he left off last year, and it's worth noting that he'll wear blinkers for the first time Saturday.
3. Tappan Street (3-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: WinStar Farm, CHC Inc., and Cold Press Racing
Career record: 1 start—1 win—0 seconds— 0 thirds
Career earnings: $24,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 91
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Into Mischief —Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Analysis: This son of leading sire Into Mischief, who was bought for $1 million as a yearling, takes a big class jump in only his second career start to contest a Kentucky Derby prep. He debuted at the end of December at Gulfstream Park and won a seven-furlong maiden race by 1 3/4 lengths under jockey Luis Saez, who retains the mount Saturday. In that race, Tappan Street raced off the pace in third through the backstretch and into the far turn, and appeared to be leveling off until the field straightened out for the homestretch. He responded when given his cue by Saez, however, closing well and looking like a horse that will improve with added distance. He'll get just that in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull and, although he concedes experience to each of his opponents, Tappan Street can certainly be a major player in this race if he takes another step in development.
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4. Guns Loaded (5-2)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Jose D'Angelo
Owners: Morplay Racing, Joey Platts, and Lady Sheila Stable
Career record: 3 starts—2 wins—1 second—0 thirds
Career earnings: $180,140
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Gun Runner —Sky My Sky, by Bernardini
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Pacesetter
Analysis: Guns Loaded comes into the Holy Bull off of a front-running win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, a one-mile, one-turn race held on this track Jan. 4. He opened up a three-length lead on six opponents in early stretch but saw that lead dwindle nearing the finish line, and he was all out to hold off a challenge from Treaty of Rome to prevail by a neck. Prior to the Mucho Macho Man, Guns Loaded finished second and then first in sprint races and earned an impressive 100 Equibase Speed Figure in his victory going seven furlongs, which also came in pacesetting fashion. His speed figure dropped considerably to a 72 in the Mucho Macho Man, but this runner's true ability probably lies somewhere in between, and as such, he must be respected as a win threat in the Holy Bull with Gulfstream Park's leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. Look for him to compete for the early lead along with Kinetic Control and Burnham Square, possibly creating a fast early pace.
5. He's Not Joking (15-1)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Josie Carroll
Owner: Di Scola Boys Stable
Career record: 5 starts—2 wins—1 second—1 third
Career earnings: $113,891
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 95
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Practical Joke —Collegeville Girl, by Central Banker
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: This contender made his first start on a dirt track last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) held at Churchill Downs after racing exclusively on the all-weather track at Woodbine, and it turned out to be an inconclusive debut as he broke slowly and was bothered by a rival soon after that and never threatened, finishing eighth of nine. Prior to that at his home track in Canada, He's Not Joking ran very well last summer and fall, never finishing worse than third in four starts and winning the 1 1/16-mile Grey Stakes (G3) prior to his trip to Louisville. He's certainly deserving of another attempt at joining the Kentucky Derby trail and will get the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez for the first time Saturday. No joke—he's an intriguing longshot who could benefit if the early pace is fast in the Holy Bull.
6. Burning Glory (8-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: Juddmonte
Career record: 3 starts—1 win—1 second—0 thirds
Career earnings: $96,600
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Into Mischief—Hail, by Tapit
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Analysis: This Juddmonte homebred is another rising prospect in the Holy Bull with a chance at winning if he continues to progress. He's improved in each of his three starts, finishing fifth back in his September debut, second in his next start and first around two turns, and then first in his final 2024 appearance, which came in a one-mile, one-turn maiden race Dec. 1 at Churchill Downs. In that start, Burning Glory raced off the lead early, moved into contention swiftly on the turn, and engaged a longshot opponent in a stretch duel that he won by a neck—the top pair were more than 11 lengths clear of 10 other horses. He still showed some inexperience during the final stages of his win but improved his Equibase Speed Figure 10 points to a career-best 93, and now he's been given two months off to mature by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. This colt has a good pedigree to handle 1 1/16 miles and distances even longer than that in the future. Look for him to be rallying into contention when the field turns for home in the Holy Bull under red-hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
7. Burnham Square (5-1)
Jockey: Edgard Zayas
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Career record: 3 starts—win—1 second—1 third
Career earnings: $50,430
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92
Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0
Pedigree: Liam's Map —Linda, by Scat Daddy
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Analysis: After finishing second and then third in his first two starts last fall using a come-from-behind running style, Burnham Square shipped to Gulfstream Park and changed tactics under new jockey Edgard Zayas in his final 2024 race on Dec. 28. He broke from the inside post in that 1 1/16-mile maiden event and tracked in third through the first turn and midway through the backstretch, before Zayas nudged him to move forward and take the lead. He did so smoothly and then drew away from the field on the far turn en route to winning by nine lengths. Zayas is back aboard in the Holy Bull and could attempt a similar pace-pressing trip, although this time Burnham Square will be breaking from the far outside post position and may have to expend some energy soon after the race starts to get clear of his opponents and then angle in to save ground. This gelding should be part of the early pace in the Holy Bull along with Guns Loaded and Kinetic Control, and stands a chance at pulling the upset if he can improve off of his December win.
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