1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned, by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Top-ranked Sovereignty drew the far outside, post 10, with a short run to the first turn in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park March 29, but as a late runner, it seems of little consequence. There appears to be adequate speed to set up his rally under replacement rider Manny Franco—Junior Alvarado is injured—though none of the jockeys on some of the other front-runners will want to go quickly, knowing Sovereignty will be closing at them late. Sovereignty should relish stretching out a sixteenth of a mile after consecutive graded stakes wins in the March 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and last fall's Street Sense Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles.
WATCH: King Reviews Louisiana Derby, Jeff Ruby Steaks
2. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, and Bob LaPenta/Michael McCarthy
Curlin —Mopotism, by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto (KY)
He was the superior horse at the culmination of a March 22 workout over five furlongs timed in 1:01 2/5 at Santa Anita Park in a breeze with stablemate Endlessly, a comebacking 4-year-old whose best efforts last year came in winning graded stakes on turf and synthetic. Journalism has seemingly lost none of his edge since winning the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes (G2) March 1 in 1:42.24, with a final sixteenth in :06.11. Based on that win and his perfect route form, he is likely to be favored in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita.
3. Citizen Bull
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—No Joke, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
The reigning champion 2-year-old male of 2024 was given a stiff solo workout March 23 with five furlongs in :59 4/5 as he gears up for an anticipated showdown with Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. That race will mark his first start at 1 1/8 miles, as it will for the others. He appears able to handle the added ground, having compiled a 3-for-3 record since being stretched out to two turns. Those wins in the 2024 American Pharaoh Stakes (G1), the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) all came when he was able to dictate comfortable splits.
4. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front—Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
Though he is 5-for-5 on dirt and coming off victories at Oaklawn Park this year in the Smarty Jones Stakes and Rebel Stakes (G2), he is the 7-2 morning-line third favorite in Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G1), trailing Cornucopian at 7-5 and Sandman at 3-1. Cornucopian and Southwest Stakes (G3) winner Speed King are the pace players in the Arkansas Derby, with Coal Battle expected to settle in the second flight in a stalking position. Under the race conditions, Coal Battle and Speed King must spot 3 pounds of weight to some key rivals. The form from the Rebel appears legitimate after fifth-place Tiztastic returned to take the March 22 Louisiana Derby (G2).
5. Barnes
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—All American Dream, by American Pharoah
Breeder: Jeff Drown and Don Rachel (KY)
The San Felipe Stakes runner-up dips a spot in the rankings after a couple of stablemates were stronger at the finish in joint workouts this month in which all received fast times. Some horses are not stars in the morning—Sovereignty is one such example—but for a solid work horse in Barnes, it provides some pause after he weakened late in the swiftly run San Felipe, his first route. Sent off at odds of 6-1 and 8-1 in the January and February Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, he drifted to 15-1 in the most recent pool that closed mid-March.
6. Burnham Square
Owner/Trainer: Whitham Thoroughbreds/Ian Wilkes
Liam's Map —Linda, by Scat Daddy
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds (KY)
Though outrun in the Fountain of Youth when fourth, his performance in a three-length defeat was respectable. The Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner seemed to run in spurts but never quit, covering his final sixteenth of a mile in :06.32, according to Equibase GPS data. Only Sovereignty finished faster over that closing split, and the difference was a negligible (.02 of a second). Burnham Square could prove dangerous if he finds a few lengths of improvement. The April 5 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland is next.
7. Chancer McPatrick
Owner/Trainer: Flanagan Racing/Chad Brown
McKinzie —Bernadreamy, by Bernardini
Breeder: Rigney Racing (KY)
Trainer Chad Brown acknowledged before the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) that Chancer McPatrick was not fully cranked for his return; it was a building block. The colt ran decently—a nonthreatening second behind Owen Almighty in a slow-paced race—though he did not produce the kind of finish we saw from him in winning Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) stakes around one turn last year. He returned to work with a breeze at Payson Park Training Center March 22, and one more at the end of the month should ready him for the Blue Grass, a Derby prep Brown has won thrice, including last year with Sierra Leone.
8. Sandman
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables/Mark Casse
Tapit —Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Jose Ortiz, who ran away with the recently concluded Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots meet riding title, picks up the mount on Sandman in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Based on comments from Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse after the Rebel Stakes, in which Sandman was third, he would prefer to have his colt closer to the pace than the 13 lengths back he was in the Rebel. This colt is still searching for his first stakes win but has shown high quality with three graded stakes placings, often with less-than-desirable trips.
9. River Thames
Owner/Trainer: CHC and WinStar Farm/Todd Pletcher
Maclean's Music —Proportionality, by Discreet Cat
Breeder: CTR Stables (NY)
Though he was caught late in the Fountain of Youth by Sovereignty, one could argue that the loss occurred due to a loss of focus, not necessarily fatigue. Having put away pacesetting Neoequos in the stretch, River Thames flicked an ear forward nearing the finish, suggesting he was not fully extending himself. A chance to grow from that experience will come in the Blue Grass, a race Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won four times, most recently with Tapit Trice in 2023.
10. Tappan Street
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, CHC, and Cold Press Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief—Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm (KY)
Trainer Brad Cox asked much of him in the Holy Bull, stretching him out to 1 1/16 miles after a single victorious start against maidens going seven furlongs. Though Tappan Street was beaten, his performance was encouraging. Asked to move early by jockey Luis Saez, he grew a little tired late with a wide trip to finish second to Burnham Square. Sharp works and eight weeks of recovery could leave him poised for a forward move in the Florida Derby.
11. Tiztastic
Owner/Trainer: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith/Steve Asmussen
Tiz the Law —Keesha, by Tapit
Breeder: Capital Bloodstock (KY)
Outrun by several of these in earlier dirt stakes matchups, he stepped up to win the Louisiana Derby over Chunk of Gold and Instant Replay, capitalizing on a knifing, ground-saving, come-from-behind ride by Joel Rosario. This year's race did not appear to be the classiest renewal of the Louisiana Derby—Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Disco Time and Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Magnitude are both sidelined and missed the race with physical setbacks—but the Louisiana Derby is still one of the major Derby preps. At 1 3/16 miles, it is also the longest domestic race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
12. Cornucopian
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—Magical World, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm and Whisper Hill Farm (KY)
The morning-line favorite in Saturday's Arkansas Derby joins the 'Dozen despite having made just a single winning start at six furlongs. A first- or second-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile race would likely be sufficient to gain entry into the May 3 first leg of the Triple Crown. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and his ownership group are swinging for the fences with a colt who has even less experience at this stage than Justify , who became Baffert's second Triple Crown winner in 2018. Why add such an inexperienced 3-year-old? Cornucopian sizzled six furlongs in 1:09.02 in his only race Feb. 23 at Oaklawn, and he has since outworked Barnes at Santa Anita. Throw in that he is a $1.1 million yearling purchase—a son of six-time leading sire Into Mischief and a half brother to three stakes winners, one of them grade 1 winner Guarana—and his potential is unmistakable.
