1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned, by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Sovereignty's Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, is a Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning conditioner, having saddled Country House to an official victory in 2019 when he was elevated to first upon the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference. In the years since, Mott has started South Bend to a 15th-place finish in 2020, Rocket Can to run ninth in 2023, and Resilience to a sixth-place finish in 2024. Sovereignty is a far better Derby prospect than those runners, having won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and run second in the Florida Derby (G1) in his two starts this year.
2. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, Bob LaPenta, Mrs. John Magnier-Lessee, Derrick Smith-Lessee, Michael Tabor-Lessee/Michael McCarthy
Curlin —Mopotism, by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto (KY)
He closed as the 5-1 favorite in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded before his Santa Anita Derby (G1) triumph. Most expect him to be around 3-1 odds on Kentucky Derby day. Favorites are 0-for-6 in the Derby over the past six runnings after sweeping six consecutive renewals from 2013-18. Since his debut third in a sprint, Journalism is perfect in four routes, with three of those victories coming in graded stakes.
(Note: Baeza, runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, would appear in these rankings if he had sufficient Kentucky Derby qualifying points to be among the 20 entries. If defections occur in the coming weeks, look for him to appear in the bottom half of the Derby Dozen.)
3. Tappan Street
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, CHC, and Cold Press Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief—Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Blue Heaven Farm (KY)
The principal spring base for trainer Brad Cox is Churchill Downs, but Payson Park Training Center in South Florida still plays a key role in his stable's operations. He has kept Tappan Street there since the colt's upset of Sovereignty in the March 29 Florida Derby. Sovereignty has been working there as well. Derby participants must arrive at Churchill Downs a week before the May 3 race. As a result, many horses will have their final breezes beneath the twin spires.
4. Sandman
Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables/Mark Casse
Tapit —Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Perhaps this is the year that a son of the legendary Tapit wins the Derby. The No. 1 active sire by lifetime grade 1 winners and the all-time leading sire by earnings, Tapit is known for passing along class and stamina to his offspring. He has sired four winners of the Belmont Stakes (G1), most recently Essential Quality in 2021. Like Essential Quality and so many of Tapit's progeny, Sandman is a flashy gray and/or roan. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner worked a half-mile April 15 in :49 3/5 at Churchill Downs.
5. Luxor Cafe
Owner/Trainer: Koichi Nishikawa/Noriyuki Hori
American Pharoah —Mary's Follies, by More Than Ready
Breeder: Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt & Westerberg Ireland (KY)
Although Japanese horses are winless in eight starts in the Derby since 1995, ignore them at your peril. As Forever Young showed last year in finishing third, beaten two noses, a star from that country can contend in the Derby. Luxor Cafe has won four in a row in Japan, with his last race his most impressive. That noted, it is not easy to ship halfway across the world. Top American horses have traveled abroad and have not fired at times. It will be prudent to track his energy level and condition after his scheduled arrival in Kentucky April 23.
6. Burnham Square
Owner/Trainer: Whitham Thoroughbreds/Ian Wilkes
Liam's Map —Linda, by Scat Daddy
Breeder: Whitham Thoroughbreds (KY)
Handicapping signals are mixed. Positively, he closed in a route at Keeneland to win the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by a nose, and Churchill Downs typically is more friendly to off-the-pace runners than many tracks. Plus, he gets to run an extra furlong in the Derby. But his time for 1 1/8 miles in the hot-paced Blue Grass was just 1:51.33, about a second and a half slower than the average time (1:49.75) in the race in its 10 other dirt runnings in Keeneland's post-Polytrack era.
7. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front—Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
The Rebel Stakes (G2) winner's Louisiana-based connections are Derby newcomers. Jockey Juan Vargas, currently riding at Evangeline Downs, has never competed in the Kentucky Derby, nor has trainer Lonnie Briley. Three jockeys have won the Derby this century with their first Derby mounts: Stewart Elliott (2004, Smarty Jones), Mario Gutierrez (2012, I'll Have Another), and Sonny Leon (2022, Rich Strike ). On Tuesday, Coal Battle recorded his second breeze since arriving at Churchill Downs, timed in 1:01 1/5 for five furlongs.
8. Grande
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Curlin—Journey Home, by War Front
Breeder: KatieRich Farms (KY)
He and Tappan Street are short of experience with only three starts. This colt won his first two races in maiden and allowance company at Gulfstream Park before heading to New York and finishing second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). His trip was poor—racing farther off the pace than usual and wide throughout—but he still fired to defeat all but front-running Rodriguez. Since the turn of the century, three horses have won the Derby after having made just three prior starts: Mage (2023), Justify (2018), and Big Brown (2008).
9. Tiztastic
Owner/Trainer: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith/Steve Asmussen
Tiz the Law —Keesha, by Tapit
Breeder: Capital Bloodstock (KY)
The Louisiana Derby (G2) has become a more impactful Kentucky Derby prep over the past 10 years, as reflected by the success of Country House and Mandaloun (2021). Those two were actually unplaced in the Louisiana Derby before faring much better in the Run for the Roses. This year's 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby—which Tiztastic rallied with a smooth trip to win—seemed a bit light. Physical setbacks meant that Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Disco Time and Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Magnitude did not compete.
10. Chunk of Gold
Owner/Trainer: Terry Stephens/Ethan West
Preservationist—Play for Gold, by Cairo Prince
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)
He also comes to Kentucky via the Louisiana Road to the Kentucky Derby series, having been the runner-up in the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star. Combined with a runner-up stakes finish and first-out maiden win, both at Turfway Park, he has been in the exacta in all four starts. A $2,500 purchase by Chris Melton from the Airdrie Stud consignment to the 2023 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale, he has $348,818 in earnings for owner Terry Stephens.
11. Citizen Bull
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—No Joke, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Hooked early for the first time in a route, last year's champion juvenile male regressed in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby, passed by Baeza and Journalism fairly early in the lane, and Citizen Bull was even caught late for third by 44-1 shot Westwood. The latter was the pacemaker for Baeza, and Citizen Bull cruised past him on the second turn. So, why still have Citizen Bull in the Dozen ahead of the longer 1 1/4-mile Derby? His overall 4-for-6 record and the belief of six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert that his trainee was short of complete fitness after two months off.
12. American Promise
Owner/Trainer: BC Stables/D. Wayne Lukas
Justify —Tapella, by Tapit
Breeder: Candy Meadows (KY)
Like Baffert, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas is among the most successful trainers in the Kentucky Derby. He has won the race four times, most recently with Charismatic in 1999. Last year, Lukas took the Preakness Stakes (G1) with Seize the Grey , his 15th win in a Triple Crown race. American Promise acts like a colt who would appreciate a quicker-than-usual surface on Kentucky Derby day. He sizzled over a lightning-fast Colonial Downs track to win the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby in track-record time of 1:46.41.
