Happy Thanksgiving!
One of the best races taking place during Thanksgiving week is Saturday's $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although only seven horses have entered the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier, quality runs deep, and you can make a case for any of the entrants to crack the top three.
The horse I'm most excited to see in action is #6 Further Ado (7-5), the heavy favorite. The son of Gun Runner disappointed in his first two starts for trainer Brad Cox, finishing fifth and third in maiden special weight sprints at Saratoga Race Course.
But when Further Ado stretched out around two turns for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland, he looked like a different horse. Showing newfound tactical speed, Further Ado pressed the pace before taking over to smash 11 rivals by 20 lengths, earning a 98 Beyer speed figure that tops the Kentucky Jockey Club field.
Following Further Ado's breakout win, Cox told Keeneland, "We were scratching our heads after his first two starts. He had been working too well, and he was working with older horses and putting them away." Based on this comment, I'm inclined to believe Further Ado can replicate his maiden performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club, in which case his rivals will have a tough time keeping up. It's not a creative selection, but Further Ado is my choice to win the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Which horses will round out the top three? #1 Spice Runner (12-1) would have been a popular choice following his stretch-running score in the Iroquois (G3), the first leg of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. But he subsequently failed to fire after a stumbling start in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), finishing a distant fifth behind probable champion two-year-old male Ted Noffey. In terms of speed figures, Spice Runner has form to find against the Kentucky Jockey Club field, so I'm tempted to oppose him.
Similar can be said of #7 Universe (9-2) and #5 Very Connected (15-1), who ran second and third in the Street Sense (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby last month. Universe has actually performed well twice on the Derby trail, previously closing for third place in the Champagne (G1), but neither Universe nor Very Connected stand out from a speed figure perspective.
I'm more intrigued by up-and-comers entered in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
In particular, I like #3 Dr. Kapur (8-1) at a price. The speedy son of juvenile Grade 1 winner McKinzie exits a gate-to-wire maiden win sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland. He drew off down the lane to score by 2 3/4 lengths over Chip Honcho, who returned to win his next start over the same class level.
Dr. Kapur has the pedigree to handle stretching out around two turns, and hot jockey Jose Ortiz (a 24% winner at Churchill Downs this meet) is named to ride. I'm optimistic Dr. Kapur will carry his speed for a top-three finish.
#2 Cherokee Nation (3-1), shipping in from California for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, is another logical contender. He might be a 0-for-2 maiden, but in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park last month, he was beaten only a nose by future Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Mr. A. P.
It's worth noting Mr. A. P. took a sizable step forward from his maiden win to the Breeders' Cup, and it remains to be seen whether Cherokee Nation will do the same. But if Cherokee Nation does move forward, he can fight for a spot in the trifecta.
#4 Soldier N Diplomat (4-1) rounds out the Kentucky Jockey Club field. The Saratoga debut winner was no match for Ted Noffey in the Hopeful (G1), finishing a distant fourth. But he bounced back in a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last time out, tracking the pace before taking over to win easily by nine lengths. He clocked his final quarter-mile in a strong :24.45 and may appreciate stretching out around two turns in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Selections
1st: #6 Further Ado
2nd: #3 Dr. Kapur
3rd: #4 Soldier N Diplomat
4th: #2 Cherokee Nation
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Kentucky Jockey Club?
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