As a boutique auction in which less than 200 horses are offered, The Saratoga Sale, Fasig-Tipton's select yearling sale, does not always prove a reliable measure of interest in young Thoroughbreds.
But in 2025 it most assuredly would prove a harbinger.
On a pair of pleasant August nights at this year's sale, the fever pitch experienced inside and outside the Humphrey S. Finney Pavilion as yearling after yearling exited the ring as racing's newest million-dollar baby would leave even the strictest of number-crunchers grasping for their paperwork in a tornado of excitement. Something most assuredly was going on here. And the excitement would continue through the yearling sale season as auction after auction not only registered record numbers, but shattered them.
That exciting performance makes the wildly successful yearling sales of 2025 BloodHorse's selection as the top industry news story this year.
One reason for the success? During The Saratoga Sale, Warrendale partner and director of bloodstock services Hunter Simms would be one of many to credit another story of the year nominee: 100% bonus depreciation made permanent in July as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
"The bill that provided 100% depreciation plays into a good market," he said. "There's a good vibe in the horse business."
Let's go back to those pleasant nights in August in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. On the second evening of The Saratoga Sale 16 horses sold for a million dollars or more, lifting the number of seven-figure horses to 25 for the two nights.
As Into Mischief would top the general sires list a seventh straight time in 2025, one of his sons—appropriately enough—would provide a grand finale when he topped the auction and became the third-highest-priced horse to ever sell at The Saratoga Sale. He went for $4.1 million as one of the final five hips offered. Peter Brant's White Birch Farm, and partners affiliated with John Magnier's Coolmore, landed the colt out of the grade 2-placed Tapit mare Stellar Sound.
The auction saw 161 yearlings sell for a total of $100,845,000, up 23% from last year's record gross. Average spiked 18% to $626,366 and median improved 5.9% to $450,000. More records would soon topple.
The bellwether Keeneland September Yearling Sale saw more marks fall as it saw record average for a fifth straight year. This year's mark, $175,807, represented a 17% spike from the record average of 2024. Sales were not just edging to record numbers; they were attaining those numbers then drawing off like Flightline in the stretch. At the end of Keeneland's 12th session, 3,076 horses had changed hands for a record $531,634,400, up 24% from the 2024 record gross.
Behind these major sales and others, the gross for yearlings sold at North American auctions in 2025 reached nearly $775.2 million, up about 22% from the record gross of 2024. Average spiked 24% to $124,948.
BloodHorse MarketWatch in the December issue noted that while these successes fall short of the rocketing prices enjoyed in the 1980s (once numbers are adjusted for inflation), both trends were impacted by changes in federal tax laws. This year's change added clarity going forward. While it's true that 100% bonus depreciation has been in place since 2017 and renewed each year, helping to fuel steady improvement, it was not made permanent until this year.
MarketWatch notes that "passive investment" deductions and write-offs helped fuel a frenzy at Thoroughbred sales from 1980-85. In 2025 with the 100% bonus depreciation no longer facing an annual renewal, industry confidence—and sales returns—soared.
Of course there's always more than a single factor affecting sales results. MarketWatch noted that the favorable tax laws of the 1980s coincided with an influx of top-shelf buyers from Europe and Dubai that helped the average at the Keeneland July Sale reach $599,838, or $1,875,142 in today's dollars. As for other factors contributing to this year's interest? Many of these factors also would qualify as other top stories of the year nominees, on and off the track.
The 2025 Triple Crown proved compelling with a rivalry that saw Sovereignty capture the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) over Journalism, while the latter delivered a thrilling late rally to take the Preakness Stakes (G1).
During those compelling weeks on the track as well as the weeks leading up to the Derby, influencer Griffin Johnson, in partnership with West Point Thoroughbreds and America's Best Racing, brought new eyeballs to the sport. Through America's Best Racing's "A Stake in Stardom" initiative, Johnson was able to lean into his love of horses as a minority owner of Arkansas Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner Sandman. In the weeks leading up to the Derby, Johnson provided his 14 million followers behind-the-scenes access to the Sport of Kings through videos and social media content that saw 212.2 million impressions. Churchill Downs officials credited that surge as one reason the Derby enjoyed record wagering and its highest television ratings since 1989.
Racing also is improving its public standing as it continues to register historically safe seasons for its equine and human competitors under the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority. The public again seems curious about the sport. In April Netflix released a documentary series, "Race for the Crown," that provided viewers with behind-the-scenes access to some of the biggest races of 2024.
Owners soon will have a chance to race their top horses in venues more in-line with other major sports in terms of available fan experiences. Pimlico Race Course and Belmont Park will soon have renovated new homes for their classics while Churchill Downs continues to invest in the home of the Kentucky Derby.
After The Saratoga Sale, Fasig-Tipton president and CEO Boyd Browning Jr. thanked the sales company's many dedicated workers while also pointing to the tax legislation, investments in the Triple Crown tracks, strong purses in Kentucky and New York, and HISA's efforts as reasons for enthusiasm in the yearling market.
"There's a lot of positive things that are happening," Browning said.
After Keeneland's successful September run, its vice president of sales, Tony Lacy, expressed confidence as well.
"The results of this sale reflect a shared achievement for the industry and a powerful source of optimism for the future of racing and breeding," Lacy said. "Many factors contributed to these record-setting results beyond the exceptional quality of horses on offer. Strong purses, favorable tax legislation, growing confidence in the sport, and broader national visibility through broadcast, streaming, and influencers all point to a bright future for our industry."
The industry will see if the sales ring enthusiasm carries over to racing and breeding.
There are challenges. Racing saw a fourth straight year in which pari-mutuel wagering on United States racing declined. Through November, pari-mutuel handle was down about 1.8%. That handle decline certainly is tied to a 4.2% downward turn in races through October, which of course is tied to the 3.8% decline in starts. The number of races and the number of starts has declined each year since 2021. Through October paid purses were down about 1.6% to $1,040,965,990.
The Jockey Club said in October it expected about a 3% decline in live foals in 2025. If that percentage holds up, it would mark the seventh time in the past eight years that the number of live foals has declined 3% or more, year over year.
In late July, The Jockey Club announced the election of Everett R. Dobson as its new chair, just the 11th in the history of the organization that dates to 1894. The longtime owner and breeder of Thoroughbreds who owns Candy Meadows Farm and races under Cheyenne Stables, said collaboration will be key in turning around those foal crop numbers.
"The decline in the Thoroughbred foal crop is not the result of a single factor. It reflects a complex interplay of tax policy shifts, economic crises, industry consolidation, emerging competitors, and changing consumer behavior," Dobson said in an open letter in November. "These are challenges faced by many industries—and they are not insurmountable."
Initiatives backed by The Jockey Club to begin a turnaround in numbers include a Mare Incentive Program, which waives registration fees for foals from specific mares that had not been bred recently; backing the previously referenced successful campaign to make 100% bonus depreciation for horse purchases permanent; and the Breeder Organization Workshop, which is working to encourage state and provincial breeder associations to consider creative measures to increase Thoroughbred horse production across North America, including combining regions to make state-bred races more attractive.
At this year's Round Table Conference on Matters Pertaining to Racing, Dobson delivered the keynote address and said the industry is working together on a national marketing campaign. As racing has not had a national marketing campaign for many years, Dobson hopes a new campaign can bring more fans and participants to the sport.
"It's in its infancy. It's in the early discussion stages," Dobson said. "It won't be rolled out anytime quick but we're going to get the right people in the room and see if we can collaborate on a message that will lift all boats."
This story ran in the January 2026 issue of BloodHorse Magazine.
