1. Ted Noffey
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher
Into Mischief —Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned
Breeder: Aaron and Marie Jones LLC (KY)
Only two Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winners have returned to experience Kentucky Derby (G1) glory six months later at Churchill Downs: Street Sense (2006-07) and Nyquist (2015-16). Spendthrift Farm's Ted Noffey appears better positioned than most to be the third horse to pull off this elusive double. The Todd Pletcher trainee recorded his first work of 2025 in breezing 3 furlongs Jan. 16 in :37.01 at Palm Beach Downs, aiming for the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
2. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox
Gun Runner —Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
Spendthrift Farm sponsors Derby Dozen, but Ted Noffey and Further Ado are 1-2 in this space on their merits. After two so-so sprints at Saratoga Race Course, Further Ado leaped forward on a stretch out in blitzing maidens over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland by 20 lengths Oct. 10. The Brad Cox trainee then took the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs over the same distance, though he was more workmanlike, a hard-pressed 1 3/4-length victor. His speed figures dipped, but he delivered, leaving him 2-for-2 in routes.
3. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox
Into Mischief—Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
Bet down to 1-2 favoritism in the 1-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park after a second-out 7-furlong maiden score in the fall at Churchill, Commandment wowed, admittedly outside of graded company. He settled kindly, split horses at the head of the lane, and drew off under a hand ride by 6 3/4 lengths. He has yet to work since that start, but with his connections considering the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth down the road for his next start, Cox has a bit of time to give him a workout pause.
4. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner—Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
Paladin invites easy comparison to Sierra Leone , another son of Gun Runner trained by Chad Brown for many of these same owners. Sierra Leone came up just short in the 2023 Remsen Stakes (G2), finishing second to Dornoch , before going on to a runner-up finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), a victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) that fall, and a return trip to the Classic for runner-up honors in 2025. Paladin landed the Remsen with a better trip than runner-up Renegade and is now 2-for-2 following a debut win via disqualification.
5. Brant
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Gun Runner—Tynan, by Liam's Map
Breeder: PTK (KY)
Brant was excellent last year as a juvenile, winning two sprints at Del Mar, including the 7-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1), before running third behind Ted Noffey and the sidelined Mr. A. P. in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Those accomplishments led him to be second on my Eclipse Award ballot behind Ted Noffey. As talented as he is, his fade in the Juvenile after racing clear on the lead raises concerns about his staying power at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, though the Juvenile was only his first route.
6. Litmus Test
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Baffert
Nyquist—Study Hard, by Malibu Moon
Breeder: Machmer Hall (KY)
A cut below the top 2-year-olds in the country during the fall, he broke through with a graded stakes triumph in taking the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December. He saved ground through the first turn as others raced wide, then caught the leader and eventual third-place finisher Provenance before outlasting runner-up Blacksmith. The latter is now a 0-for-4 maiden after a third-place finish in a follow-up start.
7. Incredibolt
Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott
Bolt d'Oro —Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY)
As a late-running winner of the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes (G3) in his first route, his form compares to that of 2025 Derby winner Sovereignty going into his 3-year-old season. He was not quite as eye-catching in taking the Street Sense as Sovereignty was, but it was a nice performance. His 1 3/4-length stakes triumph, coupled with an earlier maiden win in his second career start, suggests he is a colt with a bright future and an affinity for Churchill Downs.
8. Golden Tempo
Owner/Trainer: Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stable/Cherie DeVaux
Curlin —Carrumba, by Bernardini
Breeder: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables (KY)
The step up from maiden to stakes company can be a humbling experience for a lightly raced horse, particularly over a new distance. But Golden Tempo passed the test in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots by outkicking stablemate Mesquite in just his second career outing and first route. From the back of the pack, he picked off the fatigued leaders on the second turn and through the stretch. His win earned him just an 84 Equibase Speed Figure and an 81 Beyer Speed Figure.
9. Strategic Risk
Owner/Trainer: John Oxley/Mark Casse
Noble Bird—Strategize, by Afleet Alex
Breeder: John Oxley Living Trust (FL)
He turned the corner after being given the opportunity to run 1 1/16 miles on dirt, romping by 9 lengths in the Nov. 29 Florida Thoroughbred Breeders' and Owners' Association Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream Park and then taking the open Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park earlier this month by 4 1/2 lengths. He still must prove his class in graded company—starts in such races as a juvenile last year resulted in a fourth in the Sanford Stakes (G3) and a sixth in the With Anticipation Stakes (G3T)—though neither was a dirt route.
10. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
As promising as his 9 1/4-length second-out maiden victory was, his 5-length first-level allowance optional claiming score Jan. 2 was even better. Racing against far better opposition over 7 furlongs, he was sideswiped by favored Confessional at the start, forcing him to play catch-up from last in the field of four. He caught Confessional leaving the second turn and overwhelmed him in the stretch, drawing away late. Set for his first two-turn and stakes test in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream.
11. Desert Gate
Owner/Trainer: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman/Baffert
Omaha Beach —Theogony, by Curlin
Breeder: Twin Oaks Bloodstock (KY)
One of California's top 2-year-olds of 2025, he missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile due to a hock infection. He recently outbreezed stakes-winning Getaway Car, a 4-year-old, in a joint 6-furlong workout timed in 1:12 1/5 at Santa Anita Park Jan. 17 as he readies for a return. A winner of his first two starts last year, including the Best Pal Stakes (G3) at Del Mar, he would finish 2025 with runner-up finishes behind Brant and Intrepido in the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes (G1), respectively.
12. So Happy
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners/Mark Glatt
Runhappy—So Cunning, by Blame
Breeder: Leverett Miller (KY)
A winner on debut going 6 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar at 38-1 odds, he backed up that performance by outrunning favored Buetane to take the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) Jan. 10 at Santa Anita in quick time. Being by 2015 champion male sprinter Runhappy out of a mare whose two wins came in sprints, his bloodlines point to him being a one-turn specialist, but his lengthy stride gives hope he may outrun his pedigree.
