The last Saturday in January, originally scheduled to feature three Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points races, will instead have just one: the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park.
The other two Derby preps, the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park and the $200,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack, will not be staged this week due to bitter cold temperatures that forced full-card cancellations across multiple tracks in the eastern half of the United States. The Southwest has been postponed until Feb. 6. A new date for the Withers has not yet been announced.
At least Mother Nature took a pass on hitting Florida with this arctic blast. High temperatures for Saturday afternoon in Hallandale Beach, Fla., are forecast to climb to the upper 60s. There is a chance of showers, however.
With or without rainfall, the Holy Bull, which offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis to its top five finishers, commands the prep spotlight.
A field of nine is entered to contest the 1 1/16-mile dirt race, though at most seven 3-year-olds are probable to start. California-based Buetane has been scratched due to a flight cancellation, and Game for It is likely to scratch to await the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Pin Oak Stud's Incredibolt, returning to action for the first time since winning the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs, is the lone existing graded stakes winner in the lineup, though he is not assured of favoritism, particularly after three months on the sidelines. He shoulders highweight of 124 pounds, spotting the anticipated opposition 4-6 pounds apiece. He earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure and 82 Beyer Speed Figure in rallying from last to win the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense in 1:44.67.
Several rivals have run faster than Incredibolt, including Cannoneer and Nearly, though each did so while sprinting.
St. Elias Stable and Stonestreet Stables' Cannoneer ran a 99 ESF and a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in blitzing maidens with 7 furlongs in 1:21.63 at Churchill Downs Nov. 29 during one of its "Stars of Tomorrow" programs.
The Stars of Tomorrow program, inaugurated in 2005 by then-Churchill Downs racing secretary Doug Bredar, has produced more than 50 grade 1 winners since its inception, including Kentucky Derby winners Sovereignty (2025), Mystik Dan (2024), Mandaloun (2021), and Super Saver (2010). Churchill runs two Stars of Tomorrow cards each fall.
Making his second start after a speed duel and fading to third in his debut at Churchill Downs, the Brad Cox-trained Cannoneer showed professionalism to not become overly aggressive or rattled by a loose horse who unseated his rider at the start. The Into Mischief colt led all those with riders on their backs from start to finish en route to a 7 1/4-length victory under Irad Ortiz Jr., who returns in the irons Saturday.
Cannoneer is a talented colt, though the stretch out in distance adds an element of uncertainty. Not all lightly raced 3-year-olds transfer their sprint form to a two-turn route. Recall Patch Adams , another Cox-trained son of Into Mischief, from last year. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old in 2024 with 7 furlongs in 1:20.77 before running below the public's expectations in the 2025 Southwest Stakes and 2025 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), both at 1 1/16 miles. He then returned to form when cut back to one turn and became a dual grade 1 winner last summer in 7-furlong contests.
The conditions of the Holy Bull suit Cannoneer's speedy style. 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream end at what is typically the sixteenth pole over the 1 1/8-mile dirt oval.
The BH Maiden Watch qualifier has a potential stallion's pedigree, being by Spendthrift Farm's seven-time leading general sire Into Mischief out of the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, dam of graded stakes winners Girvin , Midnight Bourbon, Cocked and Locked, and Pirate's Punch.
No wonder he sold for $1.75 million at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where Monique Delk, executive director of racehorse development for St. Elias Stable, signed to purchase him from the Summerfield consignment. He now races for Vinnie Viola's St. Elias Stable and breeder Stonestreet Stables, headed by Barbara Banke.
Centennial Farms' Nearly brings established Gulfstream Park form into the Holy Bull, having rattled off two local victories after a debut sixth at Aqueduct Racetrack. The first of those against maidens came at 6 furlongs, and the second against first-level allowance optional claiming opposition at 7 furlongs.
Slammed at the start when another rival came out of the gate sideways into him in his last start, the son of Not This Time recovered to track the leaders from 3 lengths off the pace before reeling in the opposition. In front in early stretch, he finished his final furlong in a quick :12.32. His final time of 1:22.88 earned him a 92 ESF and a Holy Bull-best 97 Beyer Speed Figure.
His quick finish suggests he is a worthy candidate to stretch out, though expectations are tempered by his dam, Ib Prospecting, having scored her two victories with rallies in sprints.
Other elements of his pedigree, including his broodmare sire Mineshaft, indicate some stamina influences.
"Everything to us indicates that (two turns) should be to his advantage," Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher said. "He's always trained like a horse that wanted more distance, and he's got the pedigree to do it, so we're excited about stretching him out."
Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner, has also twice won the Holy Bull, first taking the 2012 race with Algorithms and a half dozen years later adding a second with Audible in 2018. The latter repeated in the Florida Derby (G1) before a third-place finish behind Justify and Good Magic in the Kentucky Derby.
Not This Time, who stands for $250,000 at Taylor Made Stallions in Kentucky, was the second-leading sire of 2025 behind Into Mischief. In recent years, Sibelius and Cogburn became grade 1-winning sprinters for the stallion, while others, such as Epicenter and Up to the Mark achieved top-level success over routes. Sibelius and Epicenter excelled on dirt, Cogburn and Up to the Mark on turf.
Another high-performing son of Not This Time, Next, turned into a standout dirt marathoner in races contested as far as 1 3/4 miles.
