After two runaway wins in ungraded stakes, Strategic Risk steps into graded company and a $1 million spotlight Feb. 6 in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) prep was postponed from Jan. 31 because of subfreezing temperatures in Arkansas.
Pegged at 9-2 on the morning line, Strategic Risk—winner of the Nov. 29 Florida Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Association Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn—figures to see his price drop on race day owing to the scratch of the 2025 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Litmus Test, who had been the 5-2 morning-line choice. His trainer, Bob Baffert, will now send only Buetane from his Southern California base to start. A field of up to 13 horses could now start.
Buetane, as well as other shippers from warmer climates such as Florida and Louisiana, have benefited from training uninterrupted by bitter cold. The Mark Casse-trained Strategic Risk, meanwhile, missed some daily on-track exercise after a winter storm halted training for nine days, as did other horses stabled at Oaklawn, including his stablemate, Smarty Jones runner-up Silent Tactic.
While some horses, such as Buetane and stretch-out debut sprint winner D'code, are untested at a route, Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic are proven at the distance. Strategic Risk's two stakes wins over his six-race career were both at 1 1/16 miles, and Silent Tactic broke his maiden at the trip over the Tapeta surface at Woodbine. The latter, a son of Tactitus, was then runner-up in the Nov. 2 Grey Stakes (G3) there before finishing second, beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Strategic Risk, in the Smarty Jones. John Oxley owns both colts and also bred Strategic Risk, a son of Noble Bird.
An abundance of speed in the Southwest should further work to their off-the-pace strengths, with Strategic Risk having enough quickness to secure a good early position under Javier Castellano. Cristian Torres rides Silent Tactic, who rallied from eighth in the Smarty Jones under Jaime Torres.
"The difference between him and Silent Tactic a little bit is I think Javier can position (Strategic Risk), where if they are going fast, he'll sit back. And if they're not going fast, he'll be very close to the pace," Casse said.
Video: Smarty Jones S. (BT)
Both horses have existing qualifying points toward the May 2 first leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs, with Strategic Risk having 10 points and Silent Tactic possessing 5. Friday's race offers additional qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis to its top five finishers.
One of their chief rivals, Brookdale Racing, Fern Circle Stables, and Magdalena Racing's Liberty National, also has 5 points, earned with a runner-up finish in the Dec. 20 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. He is one of two entrants for trainer Kenny McPeek, the other being longshot Sleepingonfreedom.
Five races earlier on the card in Friday's sixth race, 3-year-old fillies race 1 1/16 miles in the $300,000 Martha Washington Stakes, Oaklawn's first Kentucky Oaks (G1) points race of the year. Casse, a Hall of Famer, is formidable with his entrants in there, starting West Point Thoroughbreds' dual stakes winner Counting Stars and Tracy Farmer's Search Party, a 6-length maiden winner at Oaklawn in her fifth career start.
Gary and Mary West's Hit Parade, a winner of three straight for trainer Brad Cox, including the Dec. 20 Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds, leads the opposition.
Oaklawn Park, Friday, February 6, 2026, Race 11Entries: Southwest S. (G3)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Reclamation (KY) Ramon A. Vazquez 117 Christopher Davis 30/1 2 2D'code (KY) Luis Saez 117 H. Ray Ashford, Jr. 3/1 3 3Buetane (KY) Joel Rosario 117 Bob Baffert 4/1 4 4Rancho Santa Fe (KY) Flavien Prat 122 Brad H. Cox 15/1 5 5Litmus Test (KY) Juan J. Hernandez 122 Bob Baffert 5/2 6 6Circle Tap (KY) Ricardo Santana, Jr. 117 Dallas Stewart 30/1 7 7Liberty National (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 117 Kenneth G. McPeek 10/1 8 8Spirit of Royal (KY) Francisco Arrieta 117 Dallas Stewart 30/1 9 9Strategic Risk (FL) Javier Castellano 122 Mark E. Casse 9/2 10 10Bricklin (KY) Jaime A. Torres 122 Rodolphe Brisset 20/1 11 11Silent Tactic (KY) Cristian A. Torres 117 Mark E. Casse 20/1 12 12Baytown Dreamer (KY) Orlando Bocachica 117 Paul McEntee 30/1 13 13Soldier N Diplomat (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 122 Steven M. Asmussen 12/1 14 14Sleepingonfreedom (KY) Emmanuel Esquivel 117 Kenneth G. McPeek 30/1
Oaklawn Park, Friday, February 6, 2026, Race 6Entries: Martha Washington S.
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Knickleandime (KY) Rafael Bejarano 117 Randy L. Morse 8/1 2 2Maximum Offer (KY) Emmanuel Esquivel 117 Kenneth G. McPeek 10/1 3 3Search Party (KY) Cristian A. Torres 117 Mark E. Casse 3/1 4 4Spitfire (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 117 Kenneth G. McPeek 15/1 5 5Counting Stars (KY) Francisco Arrieta 122 Mark E. Casse 5/2 6 6Hit Parade (KY) Luis Saez 122 Brad H. Cox 2/1 7 7Newtown Pike (KY) Abel Cedillo 117 Lindsay Schultz 15/1 8 8Grace Is Free (KY) Kelsi Harr 122 Robert N. Cline 15/1
