We've reached the must-watch portion of the main Road to the Kentucky Derby for 2026 and a look at recent outcomes of these races suggests they may be more important than ever.
This weekend will feature three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races that award 50 points to the winner in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) from Gulfstream Park and Gotham Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct Racetrack as well as the March 1 Rebel Stakes (G2) from Oaklawn Park.
This level of prep races began Feb. 21 with the Risen Star Stakes (G2) won by Paladin, who currently sits atop Byron King's Derby Dozen list. Races that award 50 qualifying points to the winner on the horizon include the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and San Felipe Stakes (G2), as well as the March 14 Virginia Derby.
READ: Reagan's Honor Cracks Derby Dozen; Paladin on Top
On the main Road, those races are then followed by the Derby preps that this year will offer 100 qualifying points to the winner. Many of these events are grade 1 races with long histories of providing classic starters and winners: the Florida Derby (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2), Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).
If we look at all of these 100-points-to-the-winner races since 2000, we see that the eventual Kentucky Derby winner has started in one of these races 27 times (a number that includes three horses who started in a pair of these races), and has won these races 13 times—a 50% strike rate.
In looking at the 50-points-to-the-winner races since 2000, we see that 14 starters from these races have gone on to win the Derby and nine winners of these races have captured the Run for the Roses—a 35% rate.
2026 Kentucky Derby Prep Races
The interesting trends, or anomalies, occur when looking at the past seven winners. That stretch has seen three winners of 50-points-to-the-winner races go on to win the Kentucky Derby, while no horse to win a 100-points-to-the-winner race has gone on to capture the big prize. The group includes last year's Derby winner Sovereignty, who won the Fountain of Youth before finishing second in the Florida Derby.
Mandaloun won the 2021 Risen Star Stakes, finished sixth in the Louisiana Derby, and then won the Kentucky Derby when placed first following the disqualification of Medina Spirit. Authentic won the San Felipe and finished second in the Santa Anita Derby.
2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby Point Standings
As this seven-year stretch includes some oddities with the disqualification of Medina Spirit, who finished second in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby; and the COVID year changes around Authentic's 2020 win on the first Saturday in September, I'm currently filing this trend under anomaly. But there is something to be said for preparing a horse fully to target the 50-point win and largely punching a ticket to the Derby and then hoping talent can carry the horse home in the prep that follows before the finishing touches to have the horse at his best for the Kentucky Derby. It'll be worth monitoring in the years ahead.
The past seven years are a shift from 2016-18 when three straight Kentucky Derby winners did not even start in one of the current 50-point races: Justify in 2018, Always Dreaming in 2017, and Nyquist in 2016. The three Derby winners before the 2016-18 trio each won a current "50 race" and a current "100 race" in American Pharoah (2015 Rebel and Arkansas Derby), California Chrome (2014 San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby), and Orb (2015 Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby).
