1. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
Paladin rates as the top prospect for the Kentucky Derby (G1), a race that eluded his sire, Gun Runner, third behind Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 running. Gun Runner held a narrow lead entering the stretch of the Derby but was outfinished over the final quarter-mile. Gun Runner would become an even better 4-year-old, running his way to Horse of the Year honors in 2017 and later being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Since then, he's become a brilliant sire. Paladin seems on course for the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) after two post-Risen Star Stakes (G2) works.
2. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief —Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
As nicely as he finished in winning the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) to improve to 3-for-4, he seemed to lose a little focus nearing the finish, drifting out late and flicking his ears forward. Trainer Brad Cox speculates the horse shifted away from the lights on the track near the finish line. The colt didn't appear tired, galloping out smartly when prompted by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Sons of seven-time leading sire Into Mischief have won three runnings of the Kentucky Derby over the past six years: Authentic (2020), Mandaloun (by the disqualification of Medina Spirit in 2021), and Sovereignty (2025).
3. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Todd Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
After relatively easy half-mile breezes in February following his victory in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher asked him for more March 6 in preparation for the March 28 Florida Derby (G1) with a 5-furlong in-company work at Palm Beach Downs in 1:00 3/5. As nice as his Holy Bull triumph was—winning by 5 3/4 lengths in a time of 1:44.52—his final sixteenth was sluggish, timed in :07.10, which seems in part a product of him pushing a quick pace. The 1 1/8-mile distance of the Florida Derby should provide a barometer for his prospects at 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.
4. Chief Wallabee
Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott
Constitution —A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY)
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who won the Derby last year with Sovereignty and with Country House in 2019 when the latter was elevated to first upon the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference, has a less seasoned runner on the Derby trail this year. Chief Wallabee is clearly of high quality, having won on debut before a wide runner-up finish to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth. Of Mott's 14 Derby starters, seven have come since 2018 as he has amped up his participation in the American classic. With 25 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, this colt is well positioned to have sufficient points to make the Derby provides he runs third or better in one of the final preps.
5. Class President
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC/Pletcher
Uncle Mo—Top Quality, by Quality Road
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
This 2-for-3 colt has Kentucky Derby-winning connections. Pletcher trained Super Saver to win the Derby in 2010 for WinStar Farm and added another Derby in 2017 with Always Dreaming, who raced for a different ownership. Two of this colt's co-owners, WinStar and CHC (China Horse Club), also teamed with other partners to win the 2018 Derby and Triple Crown with the Bob Baffert-trained Justify . As for the Class President's current jockey, John Velazquez, who piloted the colt to a narrow victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2), he is a three-time winner. The Baffert-trained Medina Spirit would have given him a fourth in 2021, but he was disqualified for a medication violation.
6. Silent Tactic
Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse
Tacitus —Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
The Southwest Stakes (G3) winner was outgamed by Class President in the Rebel, but take note that he was the co-highweight, carrying 124 pounds, 5 pounds more than Class President, who had only a debut maiden win and stakes placing coming into the race. In a race decided by inches, perhaps it made a difference. Regardless, Silent Tactic ran well in defeat, being more forward than in prior starts. He was within range of the leaders from a stalking position, not needing to pass nine horses through the lane, as he did in the Southwest.
7. Renegade
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Pletcher
Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
No surprise that he is in the Derby Dozen rankings in light of the company he kept last year at age 2. He finished in front of Paladin when they met in the maiden ranks Oct. 17 at Aqueduct Racetrack, only to be disqualified for interference, and then was second to him in the Dec. 6 Remsen Stakes (G2) there. An early move and a wide trip likely compromised him to a degree, and Paladin surged ahead by 2 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile race. Renegade's lone start at 3 was sharp in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, and the form of the race was validated when third-place The Puma returned to win the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
8. Canaletto
Owner/Trainer: Magnier, Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant, and Brook Smith/Brown
Into Mischief—Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Despite his loss in the Tampa Bay Derby, there was much to like about his wide third-place finish. "He was looking around. He never really traveled," jockey Flavien Prat said of the second-time starter. "They went fast and I was in deep water from the gate. ... He was brave enough to make a run, but I never really felt that I was traveling well." Given these circumstances, the view here is that he has the most Derby upside going forward as he gains experience, hence his placement ahead of The Puma and Further Ado, those who beat him.
9. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Cox
Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
He was gritty to turn back Canaletto for second in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he had the smoothest journey of the top three finishers. Irad Ortiz Jr. had him well positioned with a three-wide stalking trip, while The Puma and Canaletto raced at path or two wider around each turn. Away since taking the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in late November at Churchill Downs, he simply didn't kick away when asked to quicken when others bid on the second turn. The Blue Grass at Keeneland is likely next, and he has an affinity for the surface there. By far his fastest race came over that surface last fall when he broke his maiden by 20 lengths.
10. The Puma
Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing/Gustavo Delgado
Essential Quality —Eve of War, by Declaration of War
Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY)
Like Canaletto, he appeared to be in trouble early in the Tampa Bay Derby when hung wide into the first turn, falling all the way back to last. He then lost ground on the second turn with a further wide advance, but he ran down the leaders anyway, finishing strongest. His time of 1:43.23 for 1 1/16 miles was on the slow side relative to 4-year-old Disruptor's clocking in winning the Challenger Stakes (G3) 3 1/2 hours earlier on the card, though perhaps a rainstorm before the Tampa Bay Derby slowed the speed of the track surface even though it was still rated fast.
11. Potente
Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)
Encouraged by a determined rally to win Saturday's San Felipe Stakes (G2) and improve to 2-for-2, but he debuts at No. 11, near the bottom of these rankings, in light of how the 1 1/16-mile unfolded. His favored stablemate, Brant, threw in the towel on the second turn, and with third-place So Happy regressing in his first start around two turns, the San Felipe was ripe for the taking. Potente ran down stretch leader Robusta, but that rival was 67-1 odds and hardly on anyone's short list of Derby contenders. Still, this 3-year-old is an up-and-comer, well suited to added distance, and trained by a six-time Derby winner in Baffert.
12. Reagan's Honor
Owner/Trainer: West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo, and Gabriel Duignan/Cherie DeVaux
Honor A. P. —Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: David Ingordo and Jerome S. Moss (KY)
This talented colt—named after co-owner David Ingordo's daughter, Reagan—fits into the same category as horses such as Cherokee Nation and Emerging Market in that he has run lofty speed figures against lesser competition. He is ranked in the Derby Dozen while they're not, owing to him having at least posted his near-record time in rolling in an allowance Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Their wins came in the maiden ranks at Santa Anita Park and Tampa Bay Downs, respectively. Reagan's Honor, pointed to the Blue Grass next month, resumed breezing March 6 with a 5-furlong move in 1:00 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
