1. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Gun Runner —Secret Sigh, by Tapit
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
Besides what this unbeaten colt has done on the track—winning his debut on disqualification last year and later capturing the 2025 Remsen Stakes (G2) and the Feb. 14 Risen Star Stakes (G2)—Paladin is bred for excellence. Gun Runner, one of the country's top sires, commands a $250,000 stud fee at Three Chimneys Farm. His unraced dam, Secret Sigh, is by the legendary Tapit and a half sister to Mozu Ascot (Frankel ), a dual grade 1 winner in Japan. No wonder his connections paid $1.9 million to acquire him from Fasig-Tipton's The Saratoga Sale in 2024. The April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland is next.
Watch: King Reviews Louisiana Derby, Previews Upcoming Stakes Action
2. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Brad Cox
Into Mischief —Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
The March 28 Florida Derby (G1) is loaded. Not only is this colt entered in the 1 1/8-mile race, but so too are Nearly, Chief Wallabee, and The Puma. Flavien Prat picks up the mount, as Commandment's prior rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., is riding Renegade in Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. The Florida Derby has been the most productive prep for the Kentucky Derby (G1), producing 26 winners, most recently 2025 Derby winner Sovereignty. Commandment is in the midst of a three-race win streak, topped by a neck victory over Chief Wallabee in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
3. Nearly
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Todd Pletcher
Not This Time —Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
Idle since winning the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, he has been out of sight, out of mind. But let's not forget just how sharp he was earlier this winter at Gulfstream. Besides winning the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull, he stylishly captured a maiden race Nov. 22 and an allowance optional claiming race Jan. 2 in a pair of sprints that followed a sixth-place finish in his debut at Aqueduct Racetrack last fall. Among those he defeated in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull was sixth-place Incredibolt, winner of the March 14 Virginia Derby.
4. Chief Wallabee
Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott
Constitution —A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY)
He had a wider trip than Commandment when edged by that rival in the Fountain of Youth, covering 24 additional feet of ground, according to Equibase GPS data. This colt performed exceptionally well in his first route and with a large class hike into graded company. Most horses will regress when that's thrown at them, and yet he moved up, running faster on speed figures with his runner-up finish. With many seeing upside to this colt, he is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in Saturday's Florida Derby.
5. Class President
Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, and CHC/Pletcher
Uncle Mo—Top Quality, by Quality Road
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Others have run faster on speed figures, but few have shown his combination of early speed and fight. He looked like he was going to be second in the March 1 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park when strong-closing Silent Tactic poked his head in front, yet this colt battled back to win by a nose. He did receive 5 pounds from Silent Tactic under the conditions of the Rebel, but for a horse making his first route, Class President's race was a beauty.
6. Silent Tactic
Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse
Tacitus —Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
With Class President not returning for the March 28 Arkansas Derby (G1), Silent Tactic is the top-performing Rebel starter, joined by third-place Litmus Test and fourth-place Blackout Time. They were 5 1/4 lengths and 8 lengths, respectively, behind him at the finish, though both are eligible to improve in the Arkansas Derby in their second starts off the bench. Silent Tactic is a throwback kind of horse who has competed in every one of Oaklawn's 3-year-old Derby preps, kicking off his year with a second in the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes and then winning the Feb. 6 Southwest Stakes (G3) before his nose defeat in the Rebel.
7. Renegade
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Pletcher
Into Mischief—Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Though Pletcher doesn't run Class President in the Arkansas Derby, he starts favored Renegade, who has additional recovery time after taking the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes in the first race of his 3-year-old campaign. The ungraded Sam F. Davis is typically not one of the better 3-year-old preps, but this year's cast seemed solid, luring not only Renegade but also next-out Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner The Puma. Beyond that start, Renegade showed his class last year with his efforts against Paladin, the top-ranked horse in the Derby Dozen. Irad Ortiz Jr. travels to Oaklawn Park to retain the mount in the Arkansas Derby, opening the mount for Flavien Prat to climb aboard Commandment in the Florida Derby.
8. Emerging Market
Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Brown
Candy Ride —Wild Empress, by Empire Maker
Breeder: Stoneriggs Farm (KY)
It is a tall order to go from winning a maiden race on debut to a grade 2 stakes race, but he passed the test March 21 in the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) by wearing down Pavlovian by a head at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. His time of 1:55.18 for the Preakness Stakes (G1) distance of 1 3/16 miles was the third fastest of seven runnings at that distance, but the track surface at Fair Grounds was quick on Saturday. Touchuponastar shattered the 1 1/8-mile track record in taking the New Orleans Classic Stakes (G2) earlier on the card. Emerging Market "is lightly raced, but he breathes different air than most horses," trainer Brown told BloodHorse in a phone interview after the race.
9. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Cox
Gun Runner—Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
Trainer Cox bids for a second Blue Grass Stakes victory when this colt runs at Keeneland. Cox first won the race in 2021 with Essential Quality , who would later run third in the Derby and first in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Further Ado, winner of last fall's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs, ran somewhat below expectations when second in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby, considering he had a smoother trip than the winner and third-place finisher. Making his second start after a winter break, he is eligible to move up in the Blue Grass, particularly over a track surface where he skipped to a 20-length maiden victory in October.
10. The Puma
Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing/Gustavo Delgado
Essential Quality —Eve of War, by Declaration of War
Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY)
Three weeks after his win in the Tampa Bay Derby, he goes in Saturday's Florida Derby. Such a turnaround is quicker than usual for a stakes horse, but it provides the opportunity to run at Gulfstream Park, where he regularly trains. A race such as the Blue Grass at Keeneland would have allowed an extra week of recovery but would have required travel to Kentucky and racing in new surroundings. Connections won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage , who ran second to Forte a start before in the Florida Derby.
11. Potente
Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)
The San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner is one of two horses trainer Bob Baffert aims to run in the April 4 Santa Anita Derby (G1), the other being Cherokee Nation, who was previously ranked in this space along with Reagan's Honor. Those two remain highly regarded, but they exit the rankings to create room for Emerging Market and Pavlovian, who both ran too well on Saturday to not join the Derby Dozen lineup. Besides Potente and Cherokee Nation, other contenders for the Santa Anita Derby include Robusta, Intrepido, Express Kid, and So Happy.
12. Pavlovian
Owner/Trainer: Reddam Racing/Doug O'Neill
Pavel —Mandy's Grace, by Bellamy Road
Breeder: Reddam Racing (CA)
Blinkers, re-added to his equipment this winter, have brought about improved form in his last two starts. He upset Express Kid in a head-bobbing photo in the Feb. 15 Sunland Park Derby, and then he gave Emerging Market all he wanted in the Louisiana Derby. Hounded on the lead in the Louisiana Derby through legitimate fractions, this California-bred was resolute for much of the stretch, only yielding late. Owner Paul Reddam of Reddam Racing and trainer Doug O'Neill have teamed to win the Derby twice, first with I'll Have Another (2012) and then with Nyquist (2016).
