In recent years, two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox has dominated the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. He's won every edition of the race in which he's saddled a starter, sending out Owendale (2019), Tawny Port (2022), First Mission (2023), and Encino (2024) to claim first prize.
The 2026 Lexington is taking place this Saturday at Keeneland. Cox trains the two favorites, #9 Ezum (2-1) and #10 Confessional (7-2), and thus has a strong shot to secure a fifth Lexington win.
Keeneland, Saturday, April 11, 2026, Race 10Entries: Stonestreet Lexington S. (G3)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Corona de Oro (KY) Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. 123 Dallas Stewart 6/1 2 2Exhibition Only (KY) Ruben Silvera 123 Rudy R. Rodriguez 10/1 3 3Decisive Win (KY) Antonio Fresu 123 Doug F. O'Neill 15/1 4 4Enforced Agenda (KY) Javier Castellano 123 George Weaver 10/1 5 5Mister T (IN) Mitchell Murrill 123 Climaco Galindo-Torres 30/1 6 6Ramblin (KY) Mario Gutierrez 123 Bobby C. Barnett 20/1 7 7The Hell We Did (KY) Luis Saez 123 Todd W. Fincher 8/1 8 8Trendsetter (KY) Kazushi Kimura 123 Ben Colebrook 20/1 9 9Ezum (KY) Flavien Prat 123 Brad H. Cox 2/1 10 10Confessional (KY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 123 Brad H. Cox 7/2 11 11I Did I Did (KY) Juan J. Hernandez 123 Michael J. Maker 10/1
Ezum is favored for obvious reasons. Though he faded to finish a distant ninth in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park, he ran out of his skin in his second start, which came in a one-mile maiden special weight at Colonial Downs. He led all the way to trounce half a dozen rivals by 19 1/2 lengths.
Ezum finished strongly down the homestretch, running his final two furlongs in :11.42 and :11.83. But the Colonial Downs main track played fast that day, and Ezum earned an unremarkable 87 Beyer speed figure. His 94 Brisnet Speed rating was a bit better, but still not particularly fast.
Unfortunately for Ezum, he'll have to reckon with several pace rivals in the Lexington. #1 Corona de Oro (6-1) led all the way to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots last month by 4 1/2 lengths. #2 Exhibition Only (10-1) has set the pace in two of his last three starts, including when dominating a one-mile $75,000 maiden optional claimer at Aqueduct Racetrack by 7 3/4 lengths. California raider #3 Decisive Win (15-1) set a strong pace when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park, and #5 Mister T (30-1) wired the six-furlong Crown Ambassador S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
A contested pace seems likely in the Lexington, which could compromise Ezum and favor his stablemate Confessional.
Confessional has shown flashes of talent across four starts. He debuted in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland last fall, in which he rated 1 1/2 lengths off the pace before taking command to score by three lengths over a field including Corona de Oro.
In his second start, Confessional tackled a $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. He tracked the pace, took over the lead, and then stayed on to finish second behind next-out Holy Bull (G3) winner Nearly. The third-place finisher, Timeless Victory, has since won twice over the same class level.
Confessional misfired in his third start, tiring from a pace-tracking position to finish seventh in a deep edition of the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis S. The winner, Renegade, came back to dominate the Arkansas Derby (G1), while third-place finisher The Puma has since finished first in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and third in the Florida Derby (G1).
Most recently, Confessional took on the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby. This time, he rated as far back as seventh place before rallying to finish third behind Street Sense (G3) winner Incredibolt while beaten only a neck for second place.
Confessional's Virginia Derby effort earned an 82 Beyer speed figure and a 95 Brisnet Speed rating, so he stacks up well against Ezum on paper. And Confessional's tractability should serve him well in the Lexington, allowing him to rate behind the (presumably) contested pace before launching a rally under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. He's my top choice to win the Lexington.
One longshot worth considering is the above-mentioned Decisive Win, a Doug O'Neill trainee stepping up dramatically in class and distance. He's only run once, tiring to finish fourth in the above-mentioned 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight.
But what a maiden special weight that was! The winner, Crude Velocity, returned to smash a $50,000 allowance optional claimer over the same track and distance with a 100 Beyer. The runner-up, Civil Liberty, performed respectably against tough competition when third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last year. And the seventh-place finisher, Memory, bounced back to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita last week.
You can argue the Lexington might actually be an easier field than the one Decisive Win faced on debut. As a son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by Malibu Moon, Decisive Win has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles, and a recent six-furlong workout from the Santa Anita starting gate in 1:11 1/5 suggests he's progressing in the right direction. Don't count Decisive Win out of the mix for a top-three finish.
Selections
1st: Confessional
2nd: Ezum
3rd: Decisive Win
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Lexington?
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