1. Further Ado
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox
Gun Runner —Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
With less than two weeks before the May 2 Kentucky Derby (G1), racing form is established, leaving the only final tuning in these rankings to come from workouts, daily training, and the post-position draw, which takes place April 25. As for top-ranked Further Ado, who romped by 11 lengths in the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, he has made a positive impression at Churchill Downs, including a solo half-mile workout in :48 3/5 April 17. "He was awfully good this morning," trainer Brad Cox said after the breeze.
2. Renegade
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and Robert and Lawana Low/Todd Pletcher
Into Mischief —Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
A day before Further Ado worked at Churchill Downs, Sam F. Davis and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade put in a key breeze at Palm Beach Downs in South Florida. Breezing in company with the well-regarded maiden Powershift, the Todd Pletcher-trained Renegade logged a :48.87 half-mile, punctuated by a spirited gallop out when asked around the turn. This was a quality move, though not a blow-observers-away drill, like the one delivered from Chief Wallabee April 20 at Churchill Downs; more on that breeze later.
WATCH: King Reviews Workouts From Further Ado, Chief Wallabee
3. Commandment
Owner/Trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox
Into Mischief—Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
His in-company work in :59 3/5 April 17 was fast, though he came under mild encouragement from his new jockey, Luis Saez, to stay on near-level terms late with workmate Direct Strike. Cox called Commandment "a pretty average work horse" and described the breeze as a good move. Commandment is determined in the afternoons. Last out, he wore down The Puma and Chief Wallabee in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), putting his nose in front on the wire in a head-bobbing finish with The Puma. Commandment gives off every indication of being a horse who will relish the classic Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.
4. Chief Wallabee
Owner/Trainer: Michael and Katherine Ball/Bill Mott
Constitution —A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro
Breeder: Mike Ball and Katherine Ball (KY)
His workout April 20 was flawless. Breezing for the second time in blinkers—scheduled to be added to his equipment for the Derby— he settled off of stablemate Gilded Bandit, reeled him in under restraint, and then left that rival lengths behind when cut loose by jockey Junior Alvarado passing the wire. He was timed in 1:00 for 5 furlongs, galloped out 6 furlongs in 1:12, and 7 furlongs in 1:26 3/5. He already comes into the Derby with good form—a wide second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) behind Commandment and third in the Florida Derby—and this workout suggests the possibility of improvement.
5. The Puma
Owner/Trainer: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing/Gustavo Delgado
Essential Quality —Eve of War, by Declaration of War
Breeder: Hidden Brook Farm and Brian Kahn (KY)
The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner and Florida Derby runner-up finisher arrived at Churchill Downs April 21, a few days after completing a solo 5-furlong move in 1:00.77 at Gulfstream Park. The work was well above average, but he did come under a little urging. He remains fifth on this list and third of the big three exiting the Florida Derby because of his tendency to break a little flat-footed. That can be costly in the Derby, as horses quickly scramble for position in the 20-horse field. But that is really the only fault with this 3-year-old, who ran as well as Commandment in the Florida Derby—he just had the misfortune of losing a tight photo right on the line.
6. Silent Tactic
Owner/Trainer: John C. Oxley/Mark Casse
Tacitus —Magical Sign, by Gun Runner
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
Looking for a Derby wager on a horse who shows up every time and figures to be sizable odds? He could be your horse. He has been either first or second in all six of his starts, and five of those were in stakes races. Such dependability is rare in late-running horses, as they often encounter traffic issues that can compromise them. Still, he had a perfect trip from off the pace in the Arkansas Derby and finished second by 4 lengths to Renegade. So he needs to improve or have that one regress to be in the Derby mix.
7. Emerging Market
Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown
Candy Ride —Wild Empress, by Empire Maker
Breeder: Stoneriggs Farm (KY)
Since the Kentucky Derby points era began in 2013, only two horses have come to the Derby with only a pair of starts: Taiba , who ran 12th in 2022, and the Japanese horse T O Password, who checked in fifth two years ago. The limited participation from such lightly raced horses is understandable, given that it essentially requires that a horse win its debut and then immediately pick up sufficient points in a major stakes race. In Emerging Market's case, he scored first out at a route at Tampa Bay Downs and then traveled to Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots to win the Louisiana Derby (G2).
8. Potente
Owner/Trainer: Speedway Stables/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)
Fans are accustomed to seeing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert run favorites in the Kentucky Derby, a race he has won six times. Potente is a longshot, however, likely to start at odds of 15-1 or 20-1. Baffert could have a second longshot in the Derby with another defection of two before entries Saturday, if he desires to run Litmus Test, though his form has been lackluster this season. As for Potente, after setting a pressured pace in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and tiring to second, more than likely we will see a change in style from him in the Kentucky Derby, reverting to stalking tactics that led to a victory in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) earlier this spring.
9. So Happy
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables and Saints or Sinners/Mark Glatt
Runhappy—So Cunning, by Blame
Breeder: Leverett S. Miller (KY)
Already a dual Derby winner, 59-year-old Mike Smith can become the oldest jockey to win the Run for the Roses, passing Bill Shoemaker at age 54, if he can score aboard So Happy. Smith's previous wins came on upsetting Giacomo (2005) and Triple Crown winner Justify (2018). He comes armed with a talented and versatile mount in So Happy, who showed the quickness to win the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) earlier this year and the staying power to go 1 1/8 miles successfully in the Santa Anita Derby. His only loss in four starts came when he routed for the first time in the San Felipe.
10. Pavlovian
Owner/Trainer: Reddam Racing/Doug O'Neill
Pavel —Mandy's Grace, by Bellamy Road
Breeder: Reddam Racing (CA)
Kentucky-breds take up 11 spots in the Derby Dozen rankings, all except for California-bred Pavlovian. Both his sire and dam raced for owner Paul Reddam of Reddam Racing and trainer Doug O'Neill. This colt's form has improved dramatically over his last two starts, first when narrowly prevailing in the Sunland Park Derby and then in running a gritty second to Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby. A mere repeat of the performances would not appear good enough to take the much tougher and deeper Derby, but if he continues his progression, he's not out of the mix. Speed and determination are his strengths.
11. Albus
Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott
Yaupon —Adream, by Bernardini
Breeder: Susan Casner (KY)
In winning the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) earlier this month, he showed the ability to adapt to pace, which should give jockey Manny Franco options depending on how the Derby unfolds. Albus can sit close to the leaders if the early fractions are slow—he raced prominently early in his initial two routes—or he can come from well off the pace if the leaders go quickly early. He was 11 lengths off the leader in a hot-paced Wood before kicking into gear late in the 1 1/8-mile race.
12. Incredibolt
Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott
Bolt d'Oro —Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again
Breeder: Deann Baer and Greg Baer DVM (KY)
He is the most rested of the Derby participants, unstarted since winning the March 14 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs seven weeks ago. Having sufficient points to qualify for the Derby from the qualifying points he earned in that race, trainer Riley Mott chose to bring a fresh horse to the Derby. Besides the Virginia Derby, this colt won the 2025 Street Sense Stakes (G3), a race at Churchill Downs that last year's Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty also captured as a juvenile in 2024.
