Picking the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner May 2 at Churchill Downs is tough. Picking the horse who will be leading the field through a quarter-mile or a half-mile also is no easy assignment.
Since the qualifying points system has moved away from sprinter types making the Derby, selecting the early speed has become significantly more difficult. Adding to the challenge this year are some overseas runners that are difficult to determine their early foot—and desire for those early spots. Another factor muddying the picture is that Bob Baffert trains two of the United States-based runners who might go early.
Let's look at this year's field, where there is no fully committed needs-the-lead type. Of the U.S. runners, I see the most likely early leaders as Litmus Test, Potente, or Pavlovian. Baffert conditions grade 2 winner Litmus Test and San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Potente, so some prerace strategy could shape this race.
While Litmus Test slipped at the start of an off-the-board finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1), in his previous race he led the Rebel Stakes (G2) early before finishing third. In winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December, he raced just behind early leader Provenance before registering a clear victory.
Potente has led early in two of his three races, including his April 4 runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Of course in that race he was passed by winner So Happy, who typically races close to the pace; so because of that outcome, maybe we see a new approach.
But keep in mind that Racing Hall of Famer Baffert has enjoyed great success in the Derby when his horses have raced on or near the lead early. Three of his six winners fall in that category in 2002 gate-to-wire winner War Emblem; 2018 winner Justify , who raced close to the lead early before taking over just after 6 furlongs; and front-running Authentic in 2020. Also, Baffert-trained Medina Spirit led at every point of call in finishing first in the 2021 Derby but was later disqualified.
The highest Equibase early pace number in their previous start from any U.S.-based Derby runner was registered by Pavlovian, who secured a 105 rating when he led the Louisiana Derby (G2) early before finishing second after a long stretch battle with winner Emerging Market.
Of the foreign runners with early speed, Danon Bourbon won his debut on the front end in Japan and raced from a close third early in his other two races there. Six Speed led early in the UAE Derby (G2) in his previous race before finishing second to the Kentucky Derby's other international starter Wonder Dean, who rallied from fourth.
Something to keep an eye on will be if also-eligibles Robusta or Corona de Oro make it into the field. Both would inject some early foot into the race from the outside. Also-eligible Great White is in the field and he led early in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), but trainer John Ennis has said he would prefer the son of Volatile doesn't repeat that performance.
Derby Pick
In terms of most likely winners, I will go with Emerging Market as an improving horse who can stay close early and pounce. For the same reasons, I see the second-most likely winner as Chief Wallabee. I have Potente as the third-most likely winner—as I can envision another front-end score for a Baffert-trained runner. And I'll put Further Ado as the fourth-most likely winner.
In general for this year's Derby, I'm leaning into the horses who like to race just off the early runners.
