As racing considers ways to keep the Triple Crown races strong going forward, all ideas should be on the table.
One of those options that should receive thoughtful consideration would be a more selective approach by the American Graded Stakes Committee in awarding grade 1 status for races restricted to 3-year-olds.
Leaving complications and complaints aside for a moment, imagine a world where the season's first grade 1 dirt race restricted to 3-year-olds was the Kentucky Derby, followed by the Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1) stakes. Knowing grade 1 opportunities would be scarce, connections with a healthy, talented, in-form horse would be hard-pressed to skip any of the classics.
I'm picturing a world where the Haskell (G1) and Travers (G1) stakes would continue to offer attractive summer targets. I'm not a big fan of offering grade 1 races restricted to 3-year-olds late in the year, so the Pennsylvania Derby also might be one to eliminate. We'll leave the grade 1 sprint and turf races for 3-year-olds for another day.
Such an approach would leave five route races on dirt restricted to 3-year-olds with grade 1 status (not counting races with the further restriction of being for fillies). While this would be a massive change in the United States, it's not out of line with other countries.
Five such opportunities would be a similar number to Japan, which offers four such races (turf instead of dirt). Those graded races are Japan's Triple Crown events of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas), and the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby); as well as the NHK Mile Cup.
Throw in some of the aforementioned sprints and turf races, and the U.S. would still likely have about twice as many grade 1 races restricted to 3-year-olds as Japan, which does not offer any grade 1 sprints restricted to 3-year-olds or any grade 1 dirt races restricted to 3-year-olds.
As for the issues that, understandably, would be cause for concern under this plan? The four races before the Kentucky Derby that would lose their grade 1 status would be the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, and Santa Anita Derby. While I'd advocate this change with the understanding that the committee would just plan to be more selective in awarding grade 1 status in this division, it's also fair to say that the four Derby preps have been subject to a changing landscape.
To be clear, these are important races I enjoy watching year after year, but they have been impacted by different dynamics. Foal crops have declined and top horses are racing fewer times. Unlike years past, horses rarely race in more than one of these preps—a list that also includes the Louisiana Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes (both G2). All of this has resulted in these races losing the depth they enjoyed in past years.
Also, it's difficult from year to year to predict which of the six prep races for the Triple Crown races will be the best. While I know the committee looks at multiple years and a long list of factors, I have a hard time understanding why four of these races are grade 1 and two are grade 2. It seems like all of them should have the same grade, one way or the other. A more selective approach could take care of that little issue.
As an example of the above, look no further than this year's Triple Crown races and this year's Triple Crown prep races. The Louisiana Derby has produced the Kentucky Derby winner (Golden Tempo) as well as the third-place finisher in the Preakness (Chip Honcho). This year's Wood Memorial has produced the Preakness winner (Napoleon Solo) and runner-up (Iron Honor) as well as the Kentucky Derby third-place finisher (Ocelli). That is both winners and five of the six classic placings to date for the grade 2 prep races. Beyond that, three of the past eight Kentucky Derby winners raced in the Louisiana Derby.
But none of this is to question past decisions of the committee. This is more advocating for moving in a more selective direction that should benefit the Triple Crown races. If such a move was made, it would make sense that a Triple Crown prep race probably shouldn't have the same grade 1 status as a Triple Crown race.
Under this approach on the sale and breeding side, a win in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, or Santa Anita Derby would still carry a lot of weight on a page. These are big-time races that showcase star 3-year-olds. People are going to remember the winners.
The idea of looking at a reduction in the number of grade 1 races restricted to 3-year-olds wouldn't be to punish these prep races. It would be done to support the Triple Crown races that have brought so much to the sport.
I think it's one of several options worth considering as the industry aims to keep the Triple Crown going strong.
