Summer is in full swing, which means 2-year-old racing at Del Mar and Saratoga Race Course is about to heat up.
Handicapping juvenile races isn't always easy. There's not much racing form to analyze, so bettors must rely on trainer statistics, workouts, pedigrees, and auction prices to determine the most likely winners.
That's where tools such as Race Lens (from Equibase) and StatsMaster (powered by TrackMaster, an Equibase company) come in handy. We've used Race Lens and StatsMaster to crunch a wealth of numbers and determine which types of 2-year-olds are worth betting at Del Mar and Saratoga.
All of the data listed below pertains to the last five years of 2-year-old races at Del Mar and Saratoga, including those conducted outside of the traditional summer meets.
Trainers
Using StatsMaster, we compiled lists of the top trainers of 2-year-olds at Del Mar and Saratoga.
We ranked the top six trainers by wins with all starters, dirt starters, turf starters, and first-time starters. We also listed a handful of trainers at each track who compiled both high win percentages (19% or higher) and profitable ROIs from at least three wins with all juvenile starters.
| Del Mar | ||||||
| All Starters | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Bob Baffert | 244 | 72 | 30% | 22% | 15% | -13% |
| 2. Doug O'Neill | 366 | 41 | 11% | 14% | 11% | -43% |
| 3. Peter Miller | 251 | 33 | 13% | 14% | 14% | -7% |
| 4. Phil D'Amato | 168 | 27 | 16% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| 5. John Sadler | 139 | 26 | 19% | 21% | 16% | -33% |
| 6. Michael McCarthy | 164 | 23 | 14% | 15% | 9% | -31% |
| Dirt | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Bob Baffert | 227 | 70 | 31% | 21% | 15% | -9% |
| 2. Doug O'Neill | 225 | 24 | 11% | 12% | 12% | -39% |
| 3. Peter Miller | 144 | 19 | 13% | 13% | 15% | -40% |
| 4. John Sadler | 81 | 17 | 21% | 23% | 16% | -29% |
| 5. Luis Mendez | 82 | 13 | 16% | 6% | 13% | -39% |
| 6. Michael McCarthy | 66 | 11 | 17% | 12% | 8% | -18% |
| Turf | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Phil D'Amato | 116 | 19 | 16% | 11% | 12% | 26% |
| 2. Doug O'Neill | 141 | 17 | 12% | 16% | 11% | -49% |
| 3. Peter Miller | 107 | 14 | 13% | 14% | 12% | 36% |
| 4. Michael McCarthy | 98 | 12 | 12% | 16% | 9% | -41% |
| 5. John Sadler | 58 | 9 | 16% | 17% | 16% | -38% |
| 6. Peter Eurton | 32 | 8 | 25% | 6% | 9% | 74% |
| First-time starters | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Bob Baffert | 116 | 38 | 33% | 22% | 16% | -6% |
| 2. Michael McCarthy | 77 | 11 | 14% | 8% | 9% | -17% |
| 3. John Sadler | 61 | 11 | 18% | 20% | 10% | -30% |
| 4. Tim Yakteen | 52 | 9 | 17% | 10% | 12% | 93% |
| 5. Mark Glatt | 36 | 8 | 22% | 8% | 17% | 148% |
| 6. Richard Mandella | 44 | 7 | 16% | 7% | 20% | -26% |
| Notable ROIs and Win % | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| Victor Garcia | 21 | 4 | 19% | 5% | 24% | 208% |
| Kristin Mulhall | 11 | 5 | 45% | 18% | 0% | 136% |
| Adam Kitchingman | 17 | 4 | 24% | 0% | 6% | 116% |
| Peter Eurton | 73 | 14 | 19% | 11% | 11% | 2% |
| Saratoga | ||||||
| All Starters | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Todd Pletcher | 275 | 57 | 21% | 13% | 16% | -19% |
| 2. Chad Brown | 186 | 32 | 17% | 13% | 17% | -32% |
| 3. Steve Asmussen | 117 | 23 | 20% | 15% | 15% | -17% |
| 4. Brad Cox | 85 | 23 | 27% | 24% | 12% | 65% |
| 5. Mark Casse | 123 | 20 | 16% | 21% | 14% | -10% |
| 6. Mike Maker | 117 | 18 | 15% | 12% | 10% | -30% |
| Dirt | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Todd Pletcher | 186 | 41 | 22% | 13% | 18% | -19% |
| 2. Steve Asmussen | 106 | 22 | 21% | 17% | 13% | -17% |
| 3. Chad Brown | 101 | 15 | 15% | 15% | 20% | -34% |
| 4. Brad Cox | 63 | 15 | 24% | 24% | 14% | 41% |
| 5. Mark Casse | 67 | 13 | 19% | 22% | 16% | -41% |
| 6. Mike Maker | 69 | 12 | 17% | 14% | 14% | -11% |
| Turf | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Chad Brown | 85 | 17 | 20% | 12% | 14% | -29% |
| 2. Todd Pletcher | 89 | 16 | 18% | 15% | 11% | -19% |
| 3. Christophe Clement | 58 | 12 | 21% | 21% | 19% | 8% |
| 4. George Weaver | 44 | 10 | 23% | 23% | 7% | 9% |
| 5. Brad Cox | 22 | 8 | 36% | 23% | 5% | 133% |
| 6. Bill Mott | 64 | 8 | 13% | 6% | 13% | -20% |
| First-time starters | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| 1. Todd Pletcher | 174 | 29 | 17% | 15% | 14% | -34% |
| 2. Chad Brown | 161 | 22 | 14% | 12% | 17% | -44% |
| 3. Brad Cox | 53 | 13 | 25% | 17% | 13% | 77% |
| 4. Steve Asmussen | 48 | 12 | 25% | 17% | 8% | 2% |
| 5. Christophe Clement | 48 | 11 | 23% | 15% | 19% | 30% |
| 6. George Weaver | 52 | 10 | 19% | 13% | 12% | -3% |
| Notable ROIs and Win % | Starts | Wins | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| Brian Lynch | 8 | 3 | 38% | 13% | 0% | 224% |
| Adam Rice | 6 | 3 | 50% | 0% | 33% | 224% |
| Saffie Joseph Jr. | 24 | 5 | 21% | 8% | 8% | 180% |
| Philip Serpe | 12 | 4 | 33% | 8% | 8% | 147% |
| Michael Trombetta | 12 | 4 | 33% | 8% | 8% | 120% |
| John Alexander Ortiz | 18 | 5 | 28% | 28% | 11% | 79% |
| Wayne Catalano | 10 | 3 | 30% | 0% | 10% | 33% |
| Tom Amoss | 60 | 13 | 22% | 10% | 10% | 19% |
At Del Mar, betting all juveniles trained by Phil D'Amato has been profitable over the past five years, especially when they race on turf. Horses trained by Peter Miller and Peter Eurton have likewise been profitable on grass, and playing all first-time starters trained by Mark Glatt and Tim Yakteen has been a sound strategy.
At Saratoga, bettors have been underestimating 2-year-olds trained by Brad Cox—betting them all has yielded an impressive +65% ROI. Also, first-time starters trained by Steve Asmussen have generated a profitable +2% ROI.
Bullet Workouts
Do bullet workouts identify horses worth betting? We used Race Lens to tally the results of horses who earned a bullet in one of their last three workouts. A bullet was defined as the fastest of five morning workouts at the distance.
We studied three categories of horses: those with a bullet workout 3 furlongs or longer, those with a bullet workout 4 furlongs or longer, and those with a bullet workout 5 furlongs or longer.
| Del Mar | ||||||
| Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% | |
| Bullet, 3f+ | 373 | 699 | 16% | 11% | 13% | -33% |
| Bullet, 4f+ | 321 | 552 | 17% | 13% | 14% | -32% |
| Bullet, 5f+ | 201 | 280 | 16% | 15% | 15% | -40% |
| Saratoga | ||||||
| Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% | |
| Bullet, 3f+ | 332 | 645 | 15% | 15% | 12% | -17% |
| Bullet, 4f+ | 296 | 523 | 16% | 16% | 11% | -19% |
| Bullet, 5f+ | 147 | 194 | 16% | 15% | 13% | -18% |
You can't make a profit betting bullet workouts without considering other handicapping factors. However, you'll lose less money doing so at Saratoga, where the ROI runs about -18% compared to a range of -32% to -40% at Del Mar.
Auction Prices
Using Race Lens, we looked at the performances of 2-year-olds based on their most recent sales price, and we uncovered some striking takeaways:
| Del Mar | ||||||
| Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% | |
| $10,000 and under | 271 | 457 | 7% | 7% | 10% | -45% |
| $10,001-$99,999 | 471 | 1,495 | 10% | 11% | 12% | -38% |
| $100,000-$499,999 | 320 | 830 | 17% | 13% | 13% | 9% |
| $500,000-$999,999 | 143 | 196 | 21% | 20% | 20% | -16% |
| $1 million or more | 54 | 70 | 33% | 19% | 4% | 34% |
| Saratoga | ||||||
| Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% | |
| $10,000 and under | 161 | 225 | 5% | 11% | 8% | -52% |
| $10,001-$99,999 | 406 | 1,356 | 9% | 11% | 12% | -33% |
| $100,000-$499,999 | 366 | 1,067 | 16% | 14% | 13% | -6% |
| $500,000-$999,999 | 137 | 180 | 21% | 16% | 14% | -14% |
| $1 million or more | 54 | 62 | 32% | 19% | 16% | 95% |
Betting every juvenile whose most recent sale price was $1 million or more is a profitable exercise at both Del Mar (+34% ROI) and Saratoga (+95% ROI).
The Saratoga ROI is bolstered by winners starting at 36-1 and 10-1 in 2021. But even if you exclude 2021 from the tally, the ROI for the last four years is still a profitable +17%.
At Del Mar, 15 of 23 winning million-dollar juveniles were trained by Bob Baffert.
First-time Starters vs. Experienced Runners
In maiden races, is it better to bet first-time starters or experienced runners? According to Race Lens, it depends on whether you care about win percentage or ROI.
| Del Mar | ||||||
| Route races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 79 | 213 | 8% | 9% | 8% | -34% |
| Experienced runners | 101 | 686 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 0% |
| Sprint races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 271 | 1,223 | 11% | 10% | 11% | -27% |
| Experienced runners | 267 | 1,127 | 13% | 14% | 13% | -39% |
| Dirt Races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 227 | 940 | 11% | 10% | 11% | -23% |
| Experienced runners | 242 | 1,109 | 13% | 14% | 13% | -30% |
| Turf Races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 123 | 496 | 9% | 10% | 9% | -39% |
| Experienced runners | 126 | 704 | 13% | 12% | 13% | -16% |
| Saratoga | ||||||
| Route Races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 86 | 416 | 11% | 10% | 10% | -23% |
| Experienced runners | 87 | 339 | 12% | 14% | 14% | -30% |
| Sprint Races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 292 | 1,585 | 11% | 11% | 12% | -25% |
| Experienced runners | 280 | 813 | 15% | 15% | 12% | -27% |
| Dirt Races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 236 | 1,220 | 11% | 11% | 13% | -31% |
| Experienced runners | 228 | 669 | 15% | 15% | 13% | -29% |
| Turf Races | Total Races | Total Starts | Win% | Place% | Show% | ROI% |
| First-time starters | 142 | 781 | 11% | 10% | 10% | -16% |
| Experienced runners | 139 | 483 | 12% | 13% | 13% | -27% |
At both Del Mar and Saratoga, experienced runners compiled higher win percentages than first-time starters across every category we studied. However, the best ROIs varied considerably.
At Saratoga, for example, you'd have lost less money (-16% ROI) betting first-time starters on turf than experienced runners (-27% ROI). But at Del Mar, betting every experienced runner in route races yielded a break-even 0% ROI, far exceeding the -34% ROI of first-time starters.
Conclusions
When playing 2-year-olds at Del Mar and Saratoga, a few handicapping angles stand out as particularly negative.
Handicappers should avoid betting on ...
- horses who sold for under $10,000 at their most recent auction.
- bullet workouts without regard to other handicapping factors, particularly at Del Mar.
- first-time starters on turf or in route races at Del Mar.
Using these Race Lens and StatsMaster stats, you're well-equipped to seek a profit betting juvenile races at Del Mar and Saratoga. Good luck!
Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free Race Lens subscription in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own.
