What exited Thoroughbred production as the North American foal crop steadily declined since 2006 were the mares and stallions with the lowest perceived commercial value. As a result, the quality of the foals being produced has collectively increased. The recent Keeneland September Yearling Sale underscored this trend with its results showing the most significant area of growth at the lower end of the market.
Unquestionably, the entire 12-day sale was robust and delivered its third consecutive year of record-setting gross sales and average. A BloodHorse MarketWatch analysis of the sale by deciles shows growth in nine of the 10 deciles, with the second decile essentially even with last year.
What has been the typical pattern for the better part of this century is to see growth concentrated at the top of the market and modest growth or declines at the lower end. This year's September sale flipped that pattern, with the lowest three deciles all producing double-digit percentage growth.
"The quality of the horses that were ending up in the last couple of books was higher than I've ever seen before," said Tony Lacy, Keeneland's vice president of sales. "There was some frustrations from sellers thinking that a horse was better than that, but the quality of the horses in this sector was fierce."
Lacy noted that Keeneland had around 3,000 requests from consignors to have horses cataloged in books 3 and 4 but only around 1,600 slots were available.
"You can see the math doesn't work, so we have to move a little bit forward and little bit back and balance the large crops from certain sire lines because the market can only absorb so much at one time," Lacy said. "However, what we saw is the market recognizing the quality in the back books, and people were happy to shop there. We saw Vinnie Viola, Terry Finley, Steve Asmussen, Mark Casse, and Eddie Kenneally to name only a few off the top of my head all buying."
Grade 1 winners coming out of this section of the September sale also helps. Multiple grade 1 winner Counting Stars, who won the Acorn Stakes (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), was bought for $13,000 by Nestor Martinez during the 10th session of the 2024 September sale out of Mill Ridge Sales' consignment. The daughter of Honor A. P. later sold for $150,000 during the 2025 Ocala Breeders' Sales Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale by L.E.B. on behalf of Finley's West Point Thoroughbreds partnership group.
Lacy said this depth of quality in the September catalog is a result of the concentration of quality in the foal crop overall.
"The breeders are marching forward in a very sophisticated manner," he said. "They are being more selective, looking at their overhead, and assessing the viability of their families. They are being very specific in how they are breeding their horses and raising their horses. Breeding has always been somewhat speculative, but those mares that someone is just taking a shot with who maybe has not done much on the racetrack or not a lot of pedigree to back her up, they are not finding their way into the gene pool as much as they were before."
The top of the market certainly saw growth and the top decile produced nearly twice the number of seven-figure purchases as were seen as recently as 2024. This year's sale produced 70 to sell for $1 million or more and 11 of these sold for $2 million or more. In 2024, the September sale sold 36 for $1 million or more and two brought $2 million or higher. As further indication of the growth at the top, the base price of the first decile in 2024 was $375,000. For the last two years, that top decile base price has been $450,000.
Growth in the top four deciles, however, slowed compared to the comparable deciles of the 2025 September sale. The percentages of growth for the top four this year ranged from a slight decline of 0.2% (second decile) to a 9.7% increase (top decile). Last year, these same deciles saw growth ranging from 15.3% to 17.9%. The top decile of 2025 grew 17.5%.
Lacy said he was happy to see the growth rates in the top half of the market more tempered this year.
"We are regularly looking at the data from a sustainability perspective and to have double-digit growth every year is concerning because we know that is not sustainable," he said. "So to see the increases down around 5-6% is actually a relief. We know there is more balance in the marketplace."
| Deciles for Keeneland September Yearling Sale, 2024-26 | |||||
| 2026 Deciles | No. Hips | Average | High Price | Low Price | % Chg. Prev. Yr. |
| 1 | 303 | $840,132 | $3,700,000 | $450,000 | 9.7% |
| 2 | 303 | $344,480 | $450,000 | $275,000 | -0.2% |
| 3 | 303 | $229,142 | $275,000 | $190,000 | 5.9% |
| 4 | 303 | $155,941 | $190,000 | $125,000 | 3.9% |
| 5 | 303 | $104,008 | $125,000 | $85,000 | 7.9% |
| 6 | 303 | $69,634 | $85,000 | $57,000 | 7.3% |
| 7 | 303 | $46,348 | $57,000 | $37,000 | 8.2% |
| 8 | 303 | $29,348 | $37,000 | $23,000 | 16.0% |
| 9 | 303 | $16,947 | $23,000 | $11,000 | 17.9% |
| 10 | 307 | $6,552 | $11,000 | $1,000 | 22.3% |
| 2025 Deciles | No. Hips | Average | High Price | Low Price | % Chg. Prev. Yr. |
| 1 | 308 | $765,844 | $3,300,000 | $450,000 | 17.5% |
| 2 | 308 | $345,146 | $450,000 | $260,000 | 17.0% |
| 3 | 308 | $216,331 | $260,000 | $180,000 | 15.3% |
| 4 | 308 | $150,032 | $180,000 | $120,000 | 17.9% |
| 5 | 308 | $96,352 | $120,000 | $80,000 | 15.0% |
| 6 | 308 | $64,881 | $80,000 | $52,000 | 18.3% |
| 7 | 308 | $42,854 | $52,000 | $35,000 | 13.9% |
| 8 | 308 | $25,292 | $35,000 | $20,000 | 6.4% |
| 9 | 308 | $14,370 | $20,000 | $10,000 | 9.9% |
| 10 | 306 | $5,358 | $10,000 | $1,000 | 1.4% |
| 2024 Decile | No. Hips | Average | High Price | Low Price | % Chg. Prev. Yr. |
| 1 | 289 | $651,972 | $5,000,000 | $375,000 | 4.3% |
| 2 | 289 | $295,052 | $375,000 | $235,000 | 5.0% |
| 3 | 289 | $187,682 | $230,000 | $150,000 | 5.7% |
| 4 | 289 | $127,211 | $150,000 | $100,000 | 8.8% |
| 5 | 289 | $83,796 | $100,000 | $70,000 | 3.8% |
| 6 | 289 | $54,860 | $70,000 | $45,000 | 0.5% |
| 7 | 289 | $37,612 | $45,000 | $30,000 | -0.2% |
| 8 | 289 | $23,768 | $30,000 | $17,000 | -1.8% |
| 9 | 289 | $13,076 | $17,000 | $9,000 | -6.3% |
| 10 | 287 | $5,284 | $9,000 | $1,000 | 1.9% |
