Three Kentucky Derby (G1) preps and three Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps are on the agenda at three different racetracks this week.
We'll take quick looks at all six races in this week's edition of Unlocking Winners:
Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland
#1 Coach Pope (4-5) has been excellent in two starts. He debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga and ran second in a three-horse battle to the finish line, in the process finishing ahead of next-out winner and Champagne (G1) favorite U. S. S. Valor.
Then in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Coach Pope crushed his rivals by 12 1/2 lengths. He raced effortlessly to the finish line and appeared to have plenty more to give. I believe he'll relish stretching out around two turns in the Breeders' Futurity, so I'll make Coach Pope my top choice over #2 Q B Rocket (2-1), who beat a couple of next-out winners when wiring a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga.
Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland
#5 Summer Starlet (4-5) trounced her first two starts at Saratoga, winning a maiden special weight by 6 1/2 lengths and the Spinaway (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths. Her pedigree suggests stretching out around two turns in the Alcibiades won't be an issue, so Summer Starlet is a deserving favorite to add the Alcibiades to her win tally.
My second choice, at a bit of a price, is the Kenny McPeek-trained filly #4 Oh She Said Yes (10-1). She rallied nicely from behind a quick pace to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 5 1/4 lengths. That race was restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction, but don't forget, McPeek's 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna debuted victorious in a similar race.
According to Equibase Race Lens, McPeek wins at a 19% rate with debut winners racing for the second time, and the return on investment (ROI) is a profitable +14%. I think there's a strong chance Oh She Said Yes steps forward in the Alcibiades to record a top-two finish.
Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park
Although #5 U. S. S. Valor (3-5) finished third in his debut at Saratoga, he didn't run badly by any means, closing ground from the back half of the field to finish only three-quarters of a length behind the winner. He was beaten only a neck for second place by Coach Pope.
U. S. S. Valor subsequently ran out of his skin in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, racing up front and powering clear in the drive to dominate by 13 1/4 lengths. Anything close to a repeat of that performance should send U. S. S. Valor right back to the winner's circle.
#3 Gaudreau (8-5), who won the 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight in which Coach Pope and U. S. S. Valor debuted, is a logical candidate to round out the exacta.
Frizette (G1) at Belmont Park
#4 Libby Lloyd (8-5) had no difficulty winning her debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. She led all the way and widened her advantage at every call to trounce her pursuers by 10 lengths.
Now Libby Lloyd is making her stakes debut in the Frizette, a one-mile dirt route. This is a powerful angle according to Equibase Race Lens. Over the last year, trainer Chad Brown has compiled an excellent 8-for-23 (35%) record with horses making their stakes debuts in dirt routes. The ROI is +34%, so betting them all would have yielded a nice profit.
Beyond Libby Lloyd, promising New York-bred #7 Velora (7-2) is a logical contender. She's 2-for-2 and enters off a fast-finishing win in the Seeking the Ante S. at Saratoga, so her profile is similar to last year's Frizette winner Iron Orchard, a Seeking the Ante winner who likewise brought a 2-for-2 tally into the Frizette.
American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita PARK
#2 Hughes (4-5) is the heavy favorite after winning his first three starts by a minimum of 4 3/4 lengths. He has lots of early speed and exits a decisive score in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). Stretching out around two turns is a new obstacle to overcome, but I expect Hughes' flashy form to prevail again.
#4 Imperial Honor (9-5), a stablemate of Hughes, is my choice to round out the exacta after wiring a Del Mar maiden special weight by 5 1/4 lengths. Imperial Honor is bed to shine while stretching out around two turns and may give Hughes a fight down the homestretch.
Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita PARK
Sorrento (G3) winner #2 Holmby (9-5) is the morning-line favorite, but she tired to finish a distant third in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (G1) last time out, so I'm not certain she'll relish stretching out over 1 1/16 miles in the Oak Leaf.
Instead, I'll side with longshot #3 Domain Expansion (20-1). She debuted in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf at Del Mar and ran deceptively well. She hopped at the start and broke slowly, but around the far turn she started gobbling up ground along the rail. Unfortunately, she ran into traffic and had to wait for room, losing ground and momentum in the process. By the time she got clear, it was too late to catch the victorious Dash, but Domain Expansion re-rallied late and clocked her final furlong in a swift :11.58 to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.
Domain Expansion's pedigree suggests she'll handle dirt just fine, so with a clear trip in the Oak Leaf, I believe she has upset potential. #1 Quattro Passi (5-2), a 9 1/4-length maiden special weight winner at Del Mar, is my second choice.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in this week's Derby and Oaks preps?
Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free subscription to Race Lens in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own.
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