One of the most intriguing races taking place this week is Saturday's Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland, in which a dozen three-year-old fillies will sprint seven furlongs on dirt in a battle for $400,000 in purse money.
The heavy favorite is #9 Mashallah (8-5), and her credentials are obvious. Her 5-4-0-0 lifetime record includes a perfect 4-for-4 tally in sprints. She's won all four of her sprint starts by a minimum of 3 3/4 lengths, and she exits back-to-back stakes wins in the seven-furlong Tyson Gilpin S. and the six-furlong Prioress (G3).
But you can make a case Mashallah has been facing easier competition than she'll encounter in the Raven Run. Tyson Gilpin runner-up Slewperstitus is a quality filly with wins in the Weather Vane S. and the state-restricted Maryland Million Lassie S. on her record, but she's never competed in a graded stakes.
In the Prioress, the two fillies who finished closest to Mashallah were #2 Mythical (12-1) and #3 Hen Party (20-1), who are back for the Raven Run. Mythical won the Adirondack (G3) as a juvenile, but in between the Adirondack and Prioress, her three other graded stakes attempts yielded off-the-board finishes in the Spinaway (G1), Forward Gal (G3), and Victory Ride (G3).
Hen Party has fared better against graded stakes company this year, recording top-three finishes in the Soaring Softly (G3) and Mamzelle (G3), but those efforts came on grass, and she arguably ran a bit below her best when trying dirt for the first time in the Prioress.
Does this mean Manshallah can't prevail while stepping up in class for the Raven Run? Not at all. But I wonder if #8 Conceit (4-1), who has beaten tougher competition, might offer superior betting value.
Conceit is unbeaten in four starts on dirt for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. She's been especially strong--and determined--in two recent stakes wins. She employed pace-tracking tactics to take the seven-furlong Audubon Oaks by three-quarters of a length over #7 A Fine Chardonnay (12-1), winner of Keeneland's Beaumont (G2) during the spring. Then Conceit charged from off the pace to take the seven-furlong Dogwood (G3) by a head over runaway Test (G1) winner Explora.
Conquering Explora isn't an easy feat, especially in a sprint. Explora has won five stakes (three of them graded) while earning nearly $1.6 million, and she boasts four wins and two seconds from six starts dashing seven furlongs or less.
Conceit's strong form against proven graded stakes winners is compelling. She's reuniting with five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who guided her to a 10 1/4-length allowance win during the summer at Churchill Downs, and she enters off a pair of quick half-mile workouts at Churchill. There's a lot to like about Conceit, including her morning-line odds, so she's my top choice to win the Raven Run.
For third place, I like #6 Percy's Bar (6-1), who has run well at the Grade 1 level on multiple occasions. At Keeneland specifically, she's crossed the wire first in all three of her starts, including the 1 1/16-mile Ashland (G1) and 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades (G1), though she was disqualified to second place in the latter event.
Percy's Bar hasn't run a bad race in four starts sprinting on dirt. As a juvenile, she won her debut by four lengths, trounced the Debutante S. by five lengths, and ran second in the Spinaway (G1). Then, following five straight starts running long, she cut back to seven furlongs for the Test and rallied to finish second behind Explora.
If you draw a line through Percy's Bar's last-place finish in the Music City (G2) on turf last month, she's an obvious candidate to vie for a top-three finish in the Raven Run.
#11 Movie Night (9-2) also has a solid shot to crack the trifecta. While she faltered in the Test, tiring to finish sixth after stumbling at the start and rushing up to set the pace, she bounced back nicely in the Dogwood, battling to finish third by a neck against Conceit and Explora. Her best effort fits well against the Raven Run field.
Selections
1st: Conceit
2nd: Mashallah
3rd: Percy's Bar
4th: Movie Night
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Raven Run?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page. There's a new challenge every week!
