Spendthrift Farm's marquee sire Into Mischief has one path to an eighth consecutive title as North America's leading sire and that is through the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
The legendary 21-year-old son of Harlan's Holiday has three strong contenders heading into the Oct. 30-31 Breeders' Cup World Championships at Keeneland, but the stallion will need the hefty purse of the $7 million Classic to close the gap and potentially surpass the progeny earnings of Taylor Made Stallions' star Not This Time .
A 12-year-old son of Giant's Causeway, Not This Time has had a stranglehold on the top spot of BloodHorse.com's general leading sire standings since his multiple grade 1-winning son Magnitude captured the March 28 Dubai World Cup (G1) by a length over 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Forever Young. The $12 million race run at 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) added $6.96 million to Magnitude's bankroll.
In previous years, Into Mischief has been supported by such a deep bench of winners and black-type performers that the rich purses from the Middle East's premier events were not enough to sidetrack his march to the top. In 2022, for example, Quality Road and Tonalist both got early jumps in the leading sire standings. Quality Road's son Emblem Road earned $10 million after winning the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) and Tonalist's son Country Grammer banked $6.96 million after winning the Dubai World Cup.
As of April 2, 2022, Quality Road led the sire standings with $13,452,952 in progeny earnings and Tonalist was runner-up with $11,876,812. Into Mischief, already North America's leading sire for three consecutive years, ranked third with $7,295,304.
Into Mischief's progeny ground away at the leads by Quality Road and Tonalist and ended the year with a fourth leading sire title from $28,122,550 in progeny earnings. He also led the standings by number of winners (236), number of black-type stakes winners (27), number of black-type performers (62), and number of graded stakes winners (17). Quality Road finished 2022 as runner-up with $20,828,160 in earnings and Tonalist ranked fourth behind Curlin with $16,757,617.
Not This Time has proved to be substantially tougher competition for the leading sire title because the quality runs deep in his progeny, too. As of Oct. 23, Not This Time not only has a more than $4.3 million lead in progeny earnings ($28,898,420), he also is the leading sire by number of graded stakes winners with 14 and tied with Into Mischief by number of stakes winners year to date at 23. Not This Time ranks second to Into Mischief by number of grade 1 winners (five to Into Mischief's six) and second by number of stakes performers to Into Mischief (47 vs. 50).
Additionally, Not This Time has been widening his progeny earnings margin against Into Mischief throughout the summer.
So could Into Mischief pull out a late run and nip Not This Time at the wire? It is possible, but his dual classic-winning son Sovereignty must win the Classic and his undefeated 2-year-old son Hughes needs to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Into Mischief also will be represented by graded-placed American Stage, who was pre-entered in both the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) and Turf Sprint (G1T), but the sire most needs the richer purses of the Classic and $2 million Juvenile to pull off the upset.
Wins by Sovereignty and Hughes would deliver $5.13 million in progeny earnings and raise Into Mischief's total to more than $29.65 million. An additional win in the $1 million Turf Sprint—listed as first preference for American Stage—would put his total progeny earnings to more than $30.2 million. If American Stage instead runs in and wins the $2 million Sprint, that projected total would increase to more than $30.7 million.
These results could put Into Mischief back on top, but only if Not This Time's Breeders' Cup contenders do nothing of significance, which is a longshot. Not This Time has seven contenders pre-entered that aside from Magnitude include: Damavand in the Juvenile; Cy Fair, In Our Time, and Time to Dazzle in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint; Rhetorical in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T); and Bold Leadership in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T).
A victory by Magnitude in the Classic all but locks down a leading sire title for Not This Time with projected progeny earnings of more than $32.7 million. But the title could be secured even before the Classic is contested. If Not This Time gets a winner in Turf Sprint, Rhetorical wins the Mile, and Damavan wins the Juvenile, then his projected earnings would be more than $31.9 million, and exceed the best Into Mischief can hope for in earnings by nearly $1 million.
Yes, plenty of stakes with good purses remain to be run in November and December, including a graded stakes-rich Dec. 5 at Belmont Park headlined by the $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (G2). The BloodHorse.com stakes calendar shows at least 53 graded stakes to be run in November and December in the United States and Canada. But if one were to look only at the impact of the Classic and Magnitude wins with Sovereignty running second, that outcome alone gives Into Mischief a $7.1 million deficit to overcome in two months. Into Mischief's runners would have to win every one of these remaining 53 graded stakes to catch up.
Into Mischief has a narrow path to an eighth leading sire title, but with the depth of contenders representing Not This Time in the Breeders' Cup, it appears North America will likely be crowning a new champion sire.
