1. Sovereignty
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Bill Mott
Into Mischief —Crowned by Bernardini
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
After finishing strongly in a pair one-turn races in New York, Hall of Famer Bill Mott ran him two turns as a maiden in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes (G3) Oct. 27 at Churchill Downs, and the colt circled the field to score easily by five lengths. He defeated a quality lineup that included runner-up Tiztastic, a subsequent third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and third-place Sandman, an allowance optional claiming winner at Oaklawn Park this winter and entered in the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn. Given time off after the Street Sense for a 3-year-old campaign, Sovereignty has worked just twice at Payson Park this winter. He begins atop the 'Dozen' due to his potential to excel at the Kentucky Derby (G1) distance of 1 1/4 miles.
2. Barnes
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Pedigree: Into Mischief—All American Dream, by American Pharaoh
Breeder: Jeff Drown and Don Rachel (KY)
Since selling for $3.2 million at The Saratoga Sale at Fasig-Tipton in 2023, expectations have been high for this powerfully built colt, and he has delivered on that promise in two starts. First, he overcame a troubled trip to win his Nov. 27 debut at Churchill Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs, then stepped up to stakes company, romping in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) Jan. 4 at Santa Anita Park. Those performances for Churchill-reinstated trainer Bob Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner, and his obvious good looks and pedigree, resulted in his closing as the 6-1 favorite among individual betting interests in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Pool.
Watch: King Reviews Initial Derby Dozen, Southwest Stakes
3. East Avenue
Owner/Trainer: Godolphin/Brendan Walsh
Medaglia d'Oro—Dance Music, by Ghostzapper
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Favored in the Nov. 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar after rolling on the lead in two outings, his race was essentially over at the start when he stumbled. Tyler Gaffalione rode him patiently rather than rush him forward after the disastrous beginning, but East Avenue never offered a bid and checked in ninth. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last year as well as a maiden race at Ellis Park, he has three sharp works under his belt this winter in New Orleans as he readies for the Feb. 15 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.
4. Citizen Bull
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Diane Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert
Into Mischief—No Joke, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: Robert and Lawana Low (KY)
Having won both the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he is a near certainty to be named champion 2-year-old male at the Eclipse Award ceremony Jan. 23. Evaluating the strength of his Juvenile is challenging considering how it unfolded when East Avenue blew the break. That took away Citizen Bull's principal pace rival, and with most of the other speed horses being fellow Baffert trainees, none of their riders wanted to go head to head early with a stablemate. Still, Citizen Bull's speed allowed him to capitalize, and it's to his benefit that he possesses it.
5. Grande
Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher
Curlin —Journey Home by War Front
Breeder: KatieRich Farms (KY)
Debuting against a stacked maiden field Jan. 11 going a mile at Gulfstream Park, he impressed with a good-looking victory. Away a little sluggishly from his inside post, he was rushed up by Hall of Famer John Velazquez to secure a forward position after a quarter-mile in :23.61. Chasing Camp Hale, the twice-raced favorite, down the backstretch, Grande ran a quick second quarter and ultimately wore down the favorite to win by 2 1/2 lengths. His final time was modest, 1:37.89 after a final eighth in :13.75, but the ordinary closing split was a side effect of the lively backstretch tempo.
6. Patch Adams
Owner/Trainer: CHC and WinStar Farm/Brad Cox
Into Mischief—Well Humored, by Distorted Humor
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Racing with blinkers off after running third Oct. 11 at Keeneland, he dusted maidens at Churchill Downs Nov. 30 by pressing the pace and accelerating away for a 10-length victory. He zipped seven furlongs in 1:20.77, not far off champion Groupie Doll's track record of 1:20.44 set in 2012. Less enthusiastically, four horses have raced out of this maiden contest through Jan. 21, and all were out of the money in subsequent starts. His performance as the favorite in Saturday's Southwest should provide a further gauge of his promise.
7. Disco Time
Owner/Trainer: Juddmonte/Brad Cox
Not This Time —Dixie Chick, by Jump Start
Breeder: Juddmonte (KY)
His winning time in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds was slow—1 1/16 miles over a sloppy track in 1:47.07—well off the older horse Hit Show's 1:44.91 when he captured the Louisiana Stakes (G3) a half-hour earlier. Still, the simple fact that Disco Time won is noteworthy. Accustomed to racing close to the pace, he was shuffled back to 10th early in a scramble to the first turn, then fanned extremely wide coming into the stretch. He defeated legitimate foes in runner-up Built, a stakes winner, and third-place Innovator, who had tested Barnes in a maiden race in the fall at Churchill Downs.
8. Chancer McPatrick
Flanagan Racing/Chad Brown
McKinzie—Bernadreamy, by Bernardini
Breeder: Rigney Racing (KY)
After winning his first three starts, including the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1) and one-mile Champagne Stakes (G1), his season ended disappointingly with a sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, his first start at 1 1/16 miles and around two turns. The absence of pace in the Juvenile after East Avenue broke poorly did not suit his late-running style, and Chancer McPatrick has since had minor ankle surgery. Later than others to resume training, he has a tighter window to get two preps before the Triple Crown, with trainer Chad Brown mentioning the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and April 5 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland as targets.
9. Journalism
Owner/Trainer: Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, and Bob LaPenta/Michael McCarthy
Curlin—Mopotism, by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
The Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) was a short but quality race last month, luring Baffert trainees Gaming and Getaway Car—respectively second and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Yet neither could keep pace with this strong finisher in the lane, who went on to score a 3 1/2-length victory. He is 2-for-2 in routes after a debut third in a sprint. Trainer Michael McCarthy told Daily Racing Form the colt would resume breezing later this week after getting sick. He is pointed to the March 1 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita.
10. Rodriguez
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Bob Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert
Authentic —Cayala, by Cherokee Run
Breeder: Kingswood Farm and David Egan (KY)
After running second behind the eventual San Vicente runner-up Romanesque in a Nov. 23 maiden race at Del Mar, this colt stepped up second out by whipping maidens by seven lengths with a mile in 1:35.91 Jan. 4 at Santa Anita. That race earned him a flashy speed figure, albeit with a sweet trip. He faced only five rivals and made the lead from the inside post with a short run to the first of two turns.
11. Coal Battle
Owner/Trainer: Norman Stables/Lonnie Briley
Coal Front—Wolfblade by Midshipman
Breeder: Hume Wornall and Jay Adcock (KY)
He runs for a self-described "little guy" trainer in Lonnie Briley, who has guided him to three stakes victories and a 4-for-6 record, including a perfect mark on dirt. Typically a closer, this 3-year-old showed a new dimension by racing on the lead in winning the Jan. 4 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn, largely due to that race unfolding with a slow early tempo. After keeping an active racing schedule, he sits out Saturday's Southwest Stakes to await the Feb. 22 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn.
12. Hypnus
Owner/Trainer: Brookdale Racing/Kenny McPeek
Into Mischief—Dream Tree by Uncle Mo
Breeder: Phoenix Thoroughbreds III (KY)
This 3-year-old, described by Kenny McPeek to Fair Grounds publicity as "a beast" before debuting there Jan. 18, lived up to his trainer's high opinion by rallying for a 2 1/2-length victory going 1 1/16 miles in the slop. His time of 1:46.33 may not leap out, but it was quicker than the slowly run Lecomte on the same card. He showed professionalism and a late finish. Take note of his pedigree, being by record-setting stallion Into Mischief, the leading general sire for the past six years, out of grade 1 winner Dream Tree.
