In case anyone is unsure about the definition of a slow news day in horse racing, they need only to check the headlines earlier this week. The headlines blared across the racing media landscape—"Baffert Will Have a Stable at Churchill Downs"—announced with the same celebratory urgency as MacArthur returning to the Philippines, or a Michael Jordan comeback.
Irony aside, this is the same Bob Baffert who was banned from entering a horse at Churchill Downs for 38 months. The same Bob Baffert who has won seven-minus-one renewals (see Medina Spirit) of the Kentucky Derby (G1). The same Bob Baffert whose Churchill Downs barn is decorated with so many self-congratulatory big-race plaques that the original paint is obscured.
This is also the same Bob Baffert who virtually owns the California scene in terms of 2- and 3-year-old racing on the dirt. After dominating the 2-year-old racing in the summer and fall, he slices through the stakes at Santa Anita Park in the winter, while winning 3-year-old maiden races with late bloomers. Already this year, Baffert runners have won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), the San Felipe Stakes (G2), and the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3), with the upcoming Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) seemingly at his mercy.
It is not farfetched to suggest that a somewhat diluted Baffert stable in California might be an encouraging development for opposing owners and trainers who have grown tired of banging their heads against an unsympathetic wall. In the short run, though, any exodus of viable bloodstock from the California talent pool is disheartening, just another canary dropping to the floor of a cage already littered with feathery harbingers of impending doom.
The real news is why Baffert had not established a permanent Midwest or East Coast foothold years ago. And the answer is ... he didn't need to. When you are the only game in town, only a fool would call a moving van.
Baffert maintains that it is not the purses he is chasing in Kentucky. It is the opportunities to race, especially from his inventory of million-dollar fillies and colts. Whether they are running for $80,000 at Santa Anita or $125,000 at Churchill Downs, those horses never will earn their way out of their initial investment in maiden races. They need to run when they're ready and be evaluated accordingly before moving on to greater things. But first they need to run.
"I understand where Bob's coming from," said Peter Miller, a California stalwart who also has been racing extensively in the Midwest in recent years. "You can't just keep training on your horses without running. It's unfair to the horses, and the people who own them. The problem in California is fewer races filling for barns with a certain kind of horses, along with fewer racing days."
Miller has made the most of the horses living in the 20 stalls he was allotted at Oaklawn Park, where every square inch of the backstretch seems occupied. The Oaklawn meet is always dominated by Steve Asmussen, who doesn't leave much on the table and has a win total at the current meet twice his nearest competitor, Mark Casse. But Miller finds himself in a healthy group scrambling for third place in the standings, and with 12 wins from 48 starts, he is among the leaders in win percentage.
"For the most part, I kept my turf horses and Cal-breds at Santa Anita, and sent what I considered my better dirt horses to Oaklawn," said Miller, who maintains a full stable at San Luis Rey Downs training center along with Santa Anita stalls. "You don't necessarily like to do that—California is my home and I desperately want it to thrive—but a barn my size really has no choice.
"They also make you feel welcome," Miller added. "The people back there really like racing."
In addition to Miller, some of California's best known trainers have established eastward beachheads, including Phil D'Amato, Peter Eurton, Richard Baltas, and Michael McCarthy. To a man, they are not happy with the idea of training by telephone, no matter how able their assistants. Nor are West Coast owners with the idea of enjoying the thrill of victory via FanDuel from a 2,000-mile remove.
"The game has always been tough in California, but it was also fun," Miller concluded. "Now it's just become tough."
Unless Baffert goes on to Saratoga Race Course with his new eastern wing, it is unlikely his move this spring will have an impact on his contingent at the Del Mar meeting beginning in July. The Churchill Downs meet ends in late June, Baffert's young horses rarely start that early, and Kentucky's Del Mar overlap is comprised of Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs, locales hardly synonymous with Baffert's powerhouse program.
For ownerships with promising 2-year-olds—not named Baoma, Pegram and partners, Starlight et al, or Amr Zedan—the summer season out West has become especially frustrating. At the Del Mar summer meet of 2025, there were 13 maiden special weight races on the dirt open to all 2-year-olds, along with four graded main track stakes. Baffert colts and fillies won eight of the maiden races and all four stakes. Previous seasons were marked by similar numbers.
Finally recognizing that the trend has become unsustainable, Del Mar management is taking steps this summer to create a more balanced playing field for those whose purchasing pockets are not nearly as deep as the investors supplying the Baffert cavalry.
"Last year we tried some high-level claiming races," said David Jerkens, Del Mar racing secretary. "This year we are going (to) replace them with auction races—essentially an auction $150,000 or an optional claiming $100,000, similar to what has been offered in Kentucky."
Those races will carry purses of $70,000, compared to $100,000 for straight maiden events, better known as Baffert's hunting ground. As for the proportion of straight maiden races to auction races, there will be hints when Jerkens examines the activity of 2-year-olds in training in Southern California, as the deadline for his first condition book nears in May.
"Bottom line is, we want to create more winners," Jerkens said.
