Even though the Triple Crown wrapped up with last week's Belmont (G1), stakes racing for three-year-olds isn't slowing down.
On Saturday alone, half a dozen stakes for sophomores will take place at five different tracks. In terms of purse value, they're worth a combined $1.05 million.
We'll take quick looks at four of the stakes in this week's edition of Unlocking Winners.
Pegasus S. at Monmouth Park
#4 Schooylyardsuperman is the horse I want to bet. He's shown flashes of meaningful talent for hot trainer Chad Brown, who has gone 4-for-9 (44%) at Monmouth Park this meet.
In December, Schoolyardsuperman led for much of the way to trounce a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct by 5 3/4 lengths. Then--following a misfire in the Withers S.--he rebounded to finish second in a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct, beaten only one length by Hedge Ratio.
Hedge Ratio returned to win the Long Branch S. at Monmouth. I'm optimistic Schoolyardsuperman can follow the same path to snag a Monmouth stakes win over his own.
#1 National Charter, a 3 1/2-length maiden winner racing one mile at Churchill Downs last month, is my second choice.
Momomoy Girl S. at Churchill Downs
#5 Percy's Bar, winner of the Ashland (G1) and a top-three finisher in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), Alcibiades (G1), and Spinaway (G1), has a big chance to rebound while dropping in class out of five consecutive Grade 1 races.
Percy's Bar was last seen finishing a troubled seventh in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She got shut off between rivals in the run to the first turn and wound up racing farther off the pace than usual. A wide trip further compromised her chances, but she tried hard to get back into the mix and was beaten only eight lengths.
Consider betting Percy's Bar to start a cold (but chalky) daily double ending with heavy favorite #1 Burnham Square in the Chorleywood S.
Delaware Derby at Delaware Park
#4 Litmus Test, winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and third in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) as a juvenile, is the most accomplished entrant in the Delaware Derby. But his form has slipped in recent starts, and I'm not sure he's a lock to win even while dropping in class off a 17th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
I'll try to beat Litmus Test with #3 Out of the Woods. He's improved by leaps and bounds since leaving California. First, he wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park by 2 3/4 lengths. Then he led all the way to win a 1 1/16-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs by half a length over #5 Sovereign Law.
Out of the Woods has drawn inside of key pace rival #7 Ponder and Dream. If Out of the Woods makes the lead and holds the rail, I think he'll be formidable.
Summertime Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita
#1 Mizumi, a Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify, impressed when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month. She pressed the pace before taking over to triumph by 1 1/2 lengths, with the runner-up pulling eight lengths clear of the third-place finisher.
The question is, can Mizumi win right back while stepping up in class and distance for her second start? I'm optimistic she can. According to Equibase Race Lens, Baffert has gone 26-for-94 (28%) over the last five years with horses making the sprint-to-route transition in graded stakes. That includes a 4-for-9 (44%) tally over the last six months.
If you're wondering how Baffert fares with inexperienced second-time starters making this move, the answer is, even better. Race Lens data reveals Baffert has gone 7-for-18 (39%) over the last five years with second-time starters stretching out from a sprint to a route at the graded stakes level. Betting them all would have yielded a profitable +17% ROI.
With this in mind, I'll count on Mizumi to deliver victory over #7 Marjoram, winner of the Senorita (G3) over Santa Anita's downhill turf course. Marjoram has a habit of breaking poorly, but she rallied to win her debut sprinting on dirt, and her pedigree suggests she'll handle 1 1/16 miles without issue.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Saturday stakes for three-year-olds?
Special thanks to Equibase, which provided me with a free subscription to Race Lens in exchange for product promotion. All opinions remain my own.
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