St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable's Deterministic went from a good horse to one of the nation's leaders when switching from dirt to turf in the middle of his 3-year-old season in 2024, and now he aims to extend that dominance with a sixth consecutive victory.
The battleground for that win streak-extender will be the $750,000 Fourstardave Stakes (G1T) Aug. 8 at Saratoga Race Course, a race the son of Liam's Map won last year for trainer Miguel Clement and his regular rider for the last two seasons, Kendrick Carmouche. The Fourstardave ended up being his final start of the 2025 season, but wins in the 1 1/8-mile Fort Marcy Stakes (G3T) and 1 3/16-mile Manhattan Stakes (G1T) to kick off 2026 have proven he's still at the top of his game at 5.
Even though he won the race last year by 1 1/4 lengths, Deterministic's competition will hope that the cutback in distance to a mile will leave him vulnerable to a defeat. His chief rival is Gary Barber, Cheyenne Stable, and Wachtel Stable's Rhetorical, who set the pace in that Manhattan—the longest distance he'd ever run—before wavering in the stretch and finishing fourth, just 1 1/4 lengths back.
A dual grade 1 winner himself, one of which coming at Saturday's 1-mile distance, the son of Not This Time should benefit from the cutback as he breaks from the rail. Trainer Will Walden said the New York-bred has been tipping in his morning training that he's sitting on a big effort.
"I think the distance last time probably wasn't his most ideal, but it could have been done without that third quarter being so fast I think," Walden said about Rhetorical's Manhattan. "He finished strong and only got beat a length. But I do think, ultimately, this is his preferred distance."
Both Deterministic and Rhetorical tend to race on or near the lead, and the bad news is several other horses with speed are signed on in the field of seven. The good news is two of those speedsters come from the barn of Hall of Famer Mark Casse, who said he would probably not start both.
Those two are Gary Barber's Mi Bago, who's scored front-running victories in his last two starts, and Barber, Blue Crevalle Racing, and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners' Classic Q, who has done the same against fillies and mares.
Casse said that he was leaning toward Classic Q being the selection if he only runs one given Mi Bago has a New York-bred stakes coming up later in the month and the Fourstardave's timing lines up well to prep Classic Q for the $1.75 million Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes (G1T) Aug. 29 at Kentucky Downs over 6 1/2 furlongs. Both, however, could be weather dependent as potential weekend storms could dampen the turf course.
"I want to keep an eye on the weather," Casse said. "Both of them need a really firm turf. I'm going to play it day by day."
Classic Q could help to make it a true ladies' day at Saratoga should she win the Fourstardave and her Casse-trained stablemate, Nitrogen, defeat males in the Whitney Stakes (G1). The daughter of Casse-trained champion Classic Empire flashed her speed to two impressive 1-mile victories in the May 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2T) and June 6 Just a Game Stakes (G1T) at Saratoga.
Facing males will be a challenge, but Casse has conquered that before in the Fourstardave. He trained Got Stormy to beat the boys in both 2019 and 2021, finishing second in the 2020 edition.
"She loves this turf course, she loves a mile," Casse said of Classic Q. "It's a tough race. I would say at this point in Classic Q's career, she's more accomplished than Got Stormy was."
Mi Bago's victory in the July 5 Kelso Stakes (G3T) at Saratoga was getting in hot water toward the end as Madaket Stables, Michael Dubb, William Strauss, and Michael Caruso's Zulu Kingdom mounted a late push that ended in a dead heat. The mile distance has been his specialty, with the dual grade 1-winning son of Ten Sovereigns kept at the distance by trainer Chad Brown in all but one of his last eight starts.
Tranquility Lake Farms' Capitol Hill finished fourth, beaten 3 lengths after closing from second-last, in the the Kelso and returns Saturday for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
On the far outside of the seven-horse field comes a second horse on a five-race win streak in HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud's Lagynos. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has been picking off graded contests in Louisiana and Kentucky with his son of Kantharos , but now tests deeper waters. Lagynos finished seventh to Deterministic in last year's Fourstardave and is only 1-for-6 at the distance. Still, he's in career-best form and has grown in confidence with the addition of Jose Ortiz to the saddle.
In addition to the purse, the winner of the Fourstardave will receive and automatic berth to the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) Oct. 31 at Keeneland through the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series: Win And You're In.
Saratoga Race Course, Saturday, August 8, 2026, Race 10Entries: Fourstardave S. (G1T)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L 1 1Rhetorical (NY) Irad Ortiz, Jr. 126 William Walden 5/2 2 2Mi Bago (NY) Luis Saez 124 Mark E. Casse 12/1 3 3Zulu Kingdom (IRE) Flavien Prat 126 Chad C. Brown 7/2 4 4Classic Q (KY) John R. Velazquez 121 Mark E. Casse 8/1 5 5Deterministic (KY) Kendrick Carmouche 126 Miguel Clement 2/1 6 6Capitol Hill (KY) Junior Alvarado 124 William I. Mott 10/1 7 7Lagynos (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 124 Steven M. Asmussen 5/1
