The rain has arrived at York at a particularly inopportune moment for all three of the highly rated foreign challengers in the Aug. 21 Nunthorpe Stakes (G1), even if few of the home-based trainers are dancing with delight either now that conditions have eased.
Wesley Ward would no doubt have loved a repeat of the quick ground on which Bacio ran away from his rivals at Royal Ascot, while Francis-Henri Graffard has always maintained that King Charles III Stakes runner-up Rayevka is better on a sound surface.
Ward's attempt at completing a British double with the Kentucky-bred son of Maclean's Music remains alive after being one of 18 declared for the Nunthorpe. The 3-year-old has won four of his five starts and was last seen providing the American trainer with his first Royal Ascot winner since 2021 in the non-black-type Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap in June.
Bacio will once again be ridden by Juan Hernandez, despite Ward's best efforts to lure Frankie Dettori out of retirement, and he is market leader to provide the trainer with a first victory in the race, having come so close in 2017 when Lady Aurelia was pipped on the line by Marsha.
French raider Rayevka sits second favorite behind Bacio in the betting and will take her chance for Graffard. Mickael Barzalona's mount has been given a break since finishing a head second to Mission Central in the King Charles III Stakes (G1) at the royal meeting.
"There's one time she ran on pretty soft ground at Longchamp last September and she was second," said Nemone Routh, racing manager for Rayevaka's owner Aga Khan Studs. "It wasn't ideal, but she handled it. The rain isn't what we wanted, but she'll run as long as it doesn't get really soft."
Asfoora streaked to success on fast ground in this race 12 months ago and then defied all kinds of dire predictions to score in the Prix de l'Abbaye (G1) at ParisLongchamp on ground officially described as "tres souple," and which would have certainly been soft in British or Irish terms.
Summing up the positive case for Asfoora on what is almost certainly her career swan song, trainer Henry Dwyer said: "I'm very happy with her. I've been back in Australia, but I landed back here on Wednesday and she looks pretty good to me.
"The rain isn't ideal, but not because she doesn't handle a soft track," Dwyer said. "She might even be a smidgen better if she can get her toe in. But she doesn't like a 'choppy' track where she can't get traction. ... Two hundred horses will have been across this track before we get to it and that's our major sticking point. But we couldn't be happier with her, she's in great order."
American Affair and Rumstar, the 1-2 home in the King George Stakes (G2), have also been declared, along with Molecomb Stakes (G3) winner Pershaada, who is receiving 25 pounds from Bacio.
The Nunthorpe is a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series: Win and You're In event, granting the winner an automatic, fees-paid berth to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
